Stan du Plessis

WHAT IS MONEY? AN ALTERNATIVE TO SEARLE'S INSTITUTIONAL FACTS

In The Construction of Social Reality (1995), John Searle develops a theory of institutional facts and objects, of which money, borders and property are presented as prime examples. These objects are the result of us collectively intending certain natural objects to have a certain status, i.e. to ‘count as’ being certain social objects. This view renders such objects irreducible to natural objects. In this paper we propose a radically different approach that is more compatible with standard economic theory. We claim that such institutional objects can be fully understood in terms of actions and incentives, and hence the Searlean apparatus solves a non-existent problem.

The 2010 FIFA World Cup high-frequency data economics: Effects on international tourism and awareness for South Africa

The 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa was undoubtedly a great experience for both soccer fans and their South African hosts, and focused unprecedented and favourable media attention on South Africa. Despite the tournaments manifest success, however, its short-term impact on international tourism to South Africa, in the form of immediate positive effects on the economy, has turned out to be much smaller than expected or even as reported during the tournament – as this paper shows, using high-frequency daily data on tourism. This sobering outcome may be attributable to self-defeating expectation effects and this paper is a warning against overly optimistic economic impact studies which could undermine the short-term benefits of major sporting events. The paper also investigates the awareness effects of sport mega-events, and potential long-term development effects, by using data from electronic social networks.

Happy in the service of the Company: the purchasing power of VOC salaries at the Cape in the 18th century

This paper contributes to the debate on the level and trajectory of welfare at the Cape of Good Hope during the 18th century. Recent scholarship (for example, Allen 2005) has calculated and compared the levels and evolution of real wages in various European and Asian economies since the early modern period. To this literature we add evidence for unskilled and skilled workers of the Dutch East India Company at the Cape of Good Hope during the 18th century, following De Zwart (2009; 2011), who recently presented evidence for unskilled workers in the Cape for the latter half of the 17th century and the 18th century. We calculate job-specific real wages in a three-step argument; from the narrowest international comparison of wage rates in terms of silver content to one based on a basket of widely consumed goods. This paper adds to this literature by adapting the consumption basket for local circumstances (due to both diet and relative prices) and the comparison for local demographics. We also provide a broader range of comparative statistics on real wages. Finally, we add the real wages of skilled workers to the comparison of unskilled workers offered in the literature to date. While the paper is based on real wages for VOC officials the mechanism we identify as the cause of this rising prosperity (sustained lower prices of consumption goods) would have raised the prosperity of all colonists at the Cape.ABSTRACT This paper contributes to the debate on the level and trajectory of welfare at the Cape of Good Hope during the 18th century. Recent scholarship (for example, Allen 2005) has calculated and compared the levels and evolution of real wages in various European and Asian economies since the early modern period. To this literature we add evidence for unskilled and skilled workers of the Dutch East India Company at the Cape of Good Hope during the 18th century, following De Zwart (2009; 2011), who recently presented evidence for unskilled workers in the Cape for the latter half of the 17th century and the 18th century. We calculate job-specific real wages in a three-step argument; from the narrowest international comparison of wage rates in terms of silver content to one based on a basket of widely consumed goods. This paper adds to this literature by adapting the consumption basket for local circumstances (due to both diet and relative prices) and the comparison for local demographics. We also provide a broader range of comparative statistics on real wages. Finally, we add the real wages of skilled workers to the comparison of unskilled workers offered in the literature to date. While the paper is based on real wages for VOC officials the mechanism we identify as the cause of this rising prosperity (sustained lower prices of consumption goods) would have raised the prosperity of all colonists at the Cape.

Explanations for Zambia's economic decline

Zambian growth failure is often related to the resource curse. This article evaluates not only this claim, but also whether the new institutional theory can account for Zambias economic decline. Little empirical support is found for the terms of trade or volatility versions of the resource curse theory, and there is only slightly more support for relative price versions of the theory. Turning to the new institutional theory, the article quantifies the poor quality of institutions in Zambia using a measure for contract intensive money, and supports the hypothesis that ‘poor quality’ institutions, and especially the failure to protect property and contract rights, played an important role in Zambias economic decline. Examples are given to support this claim.

The 2010 World Cup High-Frequency Data Economics: Effects on International Awareness and (Self-Defeating) Tourism

Without a doubt, the 2010 World Cup of soccer in South Africa was a great experience for both soccer fans, who enjoyed a safe and efficiently-run tournament, and their South African hosts. The sporting and social spectacle was broadcast around the world and focused unprecedented media attention on South Africa. Despite the manifest success of the tournament, its short-term effects on international tourism, which are the nucleus of all other short-term positive effects on economic variables such as employment, income and taxes, have turned out to be of a much smaller magnitude than expected or even as reported during the tournament. This may be attributable to self-defeating prophecy effects. This study is a warning against the abuse of economic impact studies, especially those pertaining to major sporting events. It is also a call to use the “correct” arguments of measurable awareness effects and potential long-term development effects in discussing major sporting events. Methodologically, this study is innovative in its economic analysis of major sporting events because it (i) uses data from social networks and (ii) uses high-frequency daily data on tourism.

THE GREAT MODERATION OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN BUSINESS CYCLE

ABSTRACT The international financial crisis that started in 2007 and the subsequent end of the long expansion in South Africa has refocused attention on the business cycle. Prior to the crisis, the economies of both developed and developing countries experienced an extended period of low and stable inflation and stable real economic growth, an episode that has been called the “great moderation”. The disruption of this era by the financial crisis has highlighted the importance of understanding the nature and causes of the great moderation, to assist policy makers in facilitating its resumption. This paper considers the historical evidence for the great moderation in South Africa with the aid of a time-varying stochastic volatility model and various break-point tests.

Prudential regulation, its international background and the performance of the banks a critical review of the South African environment since 1970

The international financial crisis that emerged in 2007 and hit with full force in 2008 had its roots in the banking sector and specifically in the management of risks associated with securitised mortgages. While there were many causes for the crisis, the failure of prudential regulation is amongst the most important, and the severity of the subsequent crisis has underlined the role of prudential regulation in a modern financial system.

Cigarettes, dollars and bitcoins – an essay on the ontology of money

What does being money consist in? We argue that something is money if, and only if, it is typically acquired in order to realise the reduction in transaction costs that accrues in virtue of agents coordinating on acquiring the same thing when deciding what thing to acquire in order to exchange. What kinds of things can be money? We argue against the common view that a variety of things (notes, coins, gold, cigarettes, etc.) can be money. All monetary systems are best interpreted as implementing the same basic protocol. Money, i.e. the thing that we coordinate on acquiring in order to lower our transaction costs, is, in all cases, a set of positions on an abstract mathematical object, namely a relative ratio scale. The things that we ordinarily call ‘money’ are merely records of positions on such a scale.

Implications for models in monetary policy

Monetary authorities have been implicated in the financial crisis of 2007–2008. John Muellbauer, for example, has blamed what he thought was initially inadequate policy responses by central banks to the crisis on their models, which are, in his words, ‘overdue for the scrap heap’. This paper investigates the role of monetary policy models in the crisis and finds that (i) it is likely that monetary policy contributed to the financial crisis; and (ii) that an inappropriately narrow suite of models made this mistake easier. The core models currently used at prominent central banks were not designed to discover emergent financial fragility. In that respect John Muellbauer is right. But the implications drawn here are less dramatic than his: while the representative agent approach to micro-foundations now seems indefensible, other aspects of modern macroeconomics are not similarly suspect. The case made here is rather for expanding the suite of models used in the regular deliberations of monetary authorities, with new models that give explicit roles to the financial sector, to money and to the process of exchange. Recommending a suite of models for policy making entails no methodological innovation. That is what central banks do; though, of course, how they do it is open to improvement. The methodological innovation is the inclusion of a model that would be sensitive to financial fragility, a sensitivity that was absent in the run-up to the current financial crisis.

The Incentivized Action View of Institutional Facts as an Alternative to the Searlean View: A Response to Butchard and D’Amico

In our earlier work, we argued, contra Searle, that institutional facts can be understood in terms of non-institutional facts about actions and incentives. Butchard and D’Amico claim that we have misinterpreted Searle, that our main argument against him (“the circularity objection”) has no merit and that our positive view cannot account for institutional facts created via joint action. We deny all three charges.