Stan Uryasev

The wireless network jamming problem

Abstract In adversarial environments, disabling the communication capabilities of the enemy is a high priority. We introduce the problem of determining the optimal number and locations for a set of jamming devices in order to neutralize a wireless communication network. This problem is known as the wireless network jamming problem. We develop several mathematical programming formulations based on covering the communication nodes and limiting the connectivity index of the nodes. Two case studies are presented comparing the formulations with the addition of various percentile constraints. Finally, directions of further research are addressed.

Portfolio optimization by minimizing conditional value-at-risk via nondifferentiable optimization

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a portfolio evaluation function having appealing features such as sub-additivity and convexity. Although the CVaR function is nondifferentiable, scenario-based CVaR minimization problems can be reformulated as linear programs (LPs) that afford solutions via widely-used commercial softwares. However, finding solutions through LP formulations for problems having many financial instruments and a large number of price scenarios can be time-consuming as the dimension of the problem greatly increases. In this paper, we propose a two-phase approach that is suitable for solving CVaR minimization problems having a large number of price scenarios. In the first phase, conventional differentiable optimization techniques are used while circumventing nondifferentiable points, and in the second phase, we employ a theoretically convergent, variable target value nondifferentiable optimization technique. The resultant two-phase procedure guarantees infinite convergence to optimality. As an optional third phase, we additionally perform a switchover to a simplex solver starting with a crash basis obtained from the second phase when finite convergence to an exact optimum is desired. This three phase procedure substantially reduces the effort required in comparison with the direct use of a commercial stand-alone simplex solver (CPLEX 9.0). Moreover, the two-phase method provides highly-accurate near-optimal solutions with a significantly improved performance over the interior point barrier implementation of CPLEX 9.0 as well, especially when the number of scenarios is large. We also provide some benchmarking results on using an alternative popular proximal bundle nondifferentiable optimization technique.

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with drawdown measure

The notion of drawdown is central to active portfolio management. Conditional Drawdown-at-Risk (CDaR) is defined as the average of a specified percentage of the largest drawdowns over an investment horizon and includes maximum and average drawdowns as particular cases. The necessary optimality conditions for a portfolio optimization problem with CDaR yield the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) stated in both single and multiple sample-path settings. The drawdown beta in the CAPM has a simple interpretation and is evaluated for hedge fund indices from the HFRX database in the single sample-path setting. Drawdown alpha is introduced similarly to the alpha in the classical CAPM and is evaluated for the same hedge fund indices. Both drawdown beta and drawdown alpha are used to prioritize hedge fund strategies and to identify instruments for hedging against market drawdowns.

Conditional Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk: Estimation and Asymptotics

We discuss linear regression approaches to the estimation of law-invariant conditional risk measures. Two estimation procedures are considered and compared; one is based on residual analysis of the standard least-squares method, and the other is in the spirit of the M-estimation approach used in robust statistics. In particular, value-at-risk and average value-at-risk measures are discussed in detail. Large sample statistical inference of the estimators is derived. Furthermore, finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated and compared with theoretical derivations in an extensive Monte Carlo study. Empirical results on the real data (different financial asset classes) are also provided to illustrate the performance of the estimators.

Value-at-risk support vector machine: stability to outliers

A support vector machine (SVM) stable to data outliers is proposed in three closely related formulations, and relationships between those formulations are established. The SVM is based on the value-at-risk (VaR) measure, which discards a specified percentage of data viewed as outliers (extreme samples), and is referred to as

Jamming communication networks under complete uncertainty

\mathrm{VaR}

Optimizing Crop Insurance under Climate Variability

VaR-SVM. Computational experiments show that compared to the