Stanimir Stankov

A new method for reconstruction of the vertical electron density distribution in the upper ionosphere and plasmasphere

Ground-based ionosphere sounding measurements alone are incapable of reliably modeling the topside electron density distribution above the F layer peak density height. Such information can be derived from Global Positioning System (GPS)-based total electron content (TEC) measurements. A novel technique is presented for retrieving the electron density height profile from three types of measurements: ionosonde (foF2, foE, M3000F2, hmf2), TEC (GPS-based), and O+-H+ ion transition level. The method employs new formulae based on Chapman, sech-squared, and exponential ionosphere profilers to construct a system of equations, the solution of which system provides the unknown ion scale heights, sufficient to construct a unique electron density profile at the site of measurements. All formulae are based on the assumption of diffusive equilibrium with constant scale height for each ion species. The presented technique is most suitable for middle- and high-geomagnetic latitudes and possible applications include: development, evaluation, and improvement of theoretical and empirical ionospheric models, development of similar reconstruction methods utilizing low-earth-orbiting satellite measurements of TEC, operational reconstruction of the electron density on a real-time basis, etc.

November 2004 space weather events: Real‐time observations and forecasts

Space weather events with their solar origin and their distribution through the heliosphere affect the whole magnetosphere-ionosphere-Earth system. Their real-time monitoring and forecasting are important for science and technology. Here we discuss one of the largest space weather events of Solar Cycle 23, in November 2004, which was also one of the most difficult periods to forecast. Nine halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), interacting on their way through the interplanetary medium and forming two geoeffective interplanetary structures, exemplify the complexity of the event. Real-time and quasi-real-time observations of the ground geomagnetic field show rapid and extensive expansion of the auroral oval to 55° in geomagnetic latitude accompanied by great variability of the ionosphere. Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) seen in ground networks, such as power grids and pipelines, were significant during the event, although no problems were reported. Forecasts of the CME propagation, global and local ground geomagnetic activity, and ionospheric parameters, issued by several regional warning centers, revealed certain deficiencies in predictions of the interplanetary characteristics of the CME, size of the geomagnetic disturbances, and complexity of the ionospheric variations produced by this event. This paper is a collective report based on the materials presented at the splinter session on November 2004 events during the first European Space Weather Week.

Evaluation of ionospheric profilers using topside sounding data

An operational system for deducing and imaging the vertical distribution of the electron density in the local ionosphere has been recently developed. The electron density profile is deduced from combined ground-based measurements of the total electron content, ionospheric vertical incidence soundings, and empirically obtained values of the O+-H+ ion transition height. The topside profile is permitted to take one of several forms: Exponential, Chapman, or Epstein. An evaluation of the above mentioned ionospheric profilers is needed in order to determine which one of them provides the best representation of the current ionospheric conditions. For this purpose, we use electron density profiles obtained from ionograms recorded by the topside sounders onboard the Alouette and ISIS satellites. Every profile has been fitted with each of the above mentioned theoretical ionospheric profilers and the corresponding approximation errors calculated. The results have been analyzed with respect to local time, geomagnetic latitude, season, magnetic and solar activity, ion transition height, and the ionospheric density peak characteristics. It has been found that, in the majority of cases, the best fit is provided by the exponential profiler, followed by the Chapman profiler. Also, while some influence of the underlying physical drivers on the topside electron density profile is detected, it is the use of ionospheric characteristics that offers more reliable selection criteria for the most appropriate profiler.

Pilot Ionosonde Network for Identification of Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances

Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) are the ionospheric signatures of atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs). Their identification and tracking is important because the TIDs affect all services that rely on predictable ionospheric radio wave propagation. Although various techniques have been proposed to measure TID characteristics, their real-time implementation still has several difficulties. In this contribution, we present a new technique, based on the analysis of oblique Digisonde-to-Digisonde (D2D) “skymap” observations, to directly identify TIDs and specify the TID wave parameters based on the measurement of angle-of-arrival, Doppler frequency, and time-of-flight of ionospherically reflected high-frequency (HF) radio pulses. The technique has been implemented for the first time for the Net-TIDE project with data streaming from the network of European Digisonde DPS4D observatories. The performance is demonstrated during a period of moderate auroral activity, assessing its consistency with independent measurements such as data from auroral magnetometers and electron density perturbations from Digisondes and GNSS stations. Given that the different types of measurements used for this assessment were not made at exactly the same time and location, and that there was insufficient coverage in the area between the AGW sources and the measurement locations, we can only consider our interpretation as plausible and indicative for the reliability of the extracted TID characteristics. In the framework of the new TechTIDE project (European Commission H2020), a retrospective analysis of the Net-TIDE results in comparison with those extracted from GNSS TEC-based methodologies is currently being attempted, and the results will be the objective of a follow up paper.

Statistical Analysis and Modeling of the Local Ionospheric Critical Frequency: A Mid-latitude Single-Station Model for Use in Forecasting

The hourly values of the F-layer critical frequency from the ionospheric sounder in Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) during the time interval from 1957 to 2010, comprising five solar cycles, were analyzed for the effects of the solar activity. The hourly time series were reduced to hourly monthly medians which in turn were used for fitting a single station foF2 monthly median model. Two functional approaches have been investigated: a statistical approach and a spectral approach. The solar flux F10.7 is used to model the dependence of foF2 on the solar activity and is incorporated into both models by a polynomial expression. The statistical model employs polynomial functions to fit the F-layer critical frequency while the spectral model is based on spectral decomposition of the measured data and offers a better physical interpretation of the fitting parameters. The daytime and nighttime foF2 values calculated by both approaches are compared during high and low solar activity. In general, the statistical model has a slightly lower uncertainty at the expense of the larger number of fitting parameters. However, the spectral approach is superior for modeling the periodic effects and performs better when comparing the results for high and low solar activity. Comparison with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2012) shows that both local models are better at describing the local values of the F-layer critical frequency.

On the optimisation of the construction of a ground-based neutron monitor for galactic cosmic ray monitoring and space weathe

Jean-Claude Jodogne Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium Ringlaan 3 Avenue Circulaire B-1180 Brussels E-mail: jcjod@meteo.be The neutron monitor (NM) remains the best available instrument for monitoring the secondary nucleonic component of the galactic cosmic rays for more than 80 years. Recently, NMs have been given another role related to satellite-based technologies for monitoring and forecasting of space weather events. At many sites around the world, the old neutron monitors were being refurbished and their operation synchronised to form a network known as the neutron monitor data base (NMDB). During the years, little has been changed in the construction of the actual neutron monitor. In this work we carried out a detailed study of the role of the various components (reflector, producer and moderator) on the output signal of a NM64 neutron monitor. The study was performed using the fully integrated particle physics Monte Carlo simulation package FLUKA utilising several different types of incident particles from monoenergetic neutrons and protons to a complex galactic cosmic rays source tailored for the location of the neutron monitor in Dourbes (50.1 ◦N, 4.6 ◦E). The influence of the size and shape of the different parts on the energy spectrum of the neutrons in the detector tube was analysed in order to optimise the construction and to investigate if it would be possible to extract more information about the incident radiation. The results obtained here have been applied to the design of the second neutron monitor which is under construction in Dourbes. The 34th International Cosmic Ray Conference, 30 July6 August, 2015 The Hague, The Netherlands

Topside Plasma Scale Height Modelling Based on CHAMP Measurements: First Results

Presented are first results in retrieving, analysing, and modelling the topside plasma scale height by using CHAMP ionospheric radio occultation observations. The plasma scale height value in the region situated immediately above the ionospheric F2-layer density peak, is very important for the TEC calculation and plasma density reconstruction procedures based on GPS radio occultation measurements. Based on the year-long time series data accumulated so far, obtained were latitudinal, diumal, and seasonal variations of the topside plasma scale height. Considering the growing CHAMP measurement data base, it is possible to develop a new empirical model to be used for improving the process of electron density profile retrieval by delivering an improved initial guess of the topside electron density profile.