Stanisław Rychlicki

Estimation of natural-gas consumption in Poland based on the logistic-curve interpretation

This paper describes the possible scenario of the development of the gas sector in Poland. An adaptation of the Hubbert model is implemented to the Polish situation based upon the Starzman modification. The model presented describes hypothetical natural-gas demand, based on average trend of the economy development during recent decades; the model considers natural production/demand maxima of energy carriers. The prognosis is loaded with an error resulting from the use of average data related to yearly increases of the national gross product. The adapted model expresses good compatibility with the natural-gas demand for the period 1995-2000. However, the error of prognosis may reach 20%. The simple structure of the model enables the possibility of yearly updating, and eventual correction of the natural-gas demand. In cases of untypical changes of the economy growth rate (long stagnation, extreme long and accelerated development), the prognosis error may increase.