Stav Shapira

Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes

Earthquakes pose substantial risks of human health. Preparedness and mitigation strategies can reduce earthquake-related injuries and deaths and information from casualty models that predict earthquake outcomes can help communities prepare. This study identifies epidemiologic and medical risk factors for earthquake casualties, and compares them with engineering casualty models for the purpose of providing evidence that integrates these approaches. It aims to improve earthquake casualty modeling and to offer better accurate estimations. Epidemiological studies that used analytical designs and reported risk factors related to earthquake-induced casualties and studies that examined the association between medical preparedness and earthquake-induced casualties were reviewed. Engineering casualty estimation models were reviewed to identify which risk factors were considered in the models. Epidemiological studies identified the following risk factors: gender, age, socioeconomic status, physical disability and human behavior. Medical preparedness factors were also related to earthquake-induced injury and death. Global casualty estimation models do not currently consider these factors. This study provides evidence that integrating demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population and levels of medical preparedness into the existing casualty estimation models may improve their accuracy.

Assessing the Lifecycle Sustainability Costs and Benefits of Seismic Mitigation Designs for Buildings

AbstractA complete sustainable-performance analysis that takes into consideration the whole of the triple bottom line of sustainability is necessary when one needs to balance social, economic, and environmental impacts in an optimal cost-effective design based fundamentally on sustainability performance objectives. This study introduces a methodology that can translate seismic building damage into clearly quantifiable social, economic, and environmental impacts, which can be used when selecting repair methods appropriate for various states of building damage and for the local economic and environmental situation. The authors also propose a lifecycle-assessment framework with which one can evaluate the costs and benefits associated with a seismic design over the lifecycle of a building. Two case studies are presented. The first case assesses the sustainability performance of a single RC building under seismic risk. The second case, taking into account the uncertainty associated with seismic events, compris...

Economic Feasibility Analysis of Pre-earthquake Strengthening of Buildings in a Moderate Seismicity / High Vulnerability Area

Abstract While regions with high seismicity have been widely investigated, areas with moderate seismic hazard has not been fully adequately studied as being exposed to high risk due to their vulnerable built environment. A standardized and straightforward risk assessment methodology is needed for public authorities in moderate seismic / high vulnerability areas to assess the potential seismic risks and to make corresponding structural strengthening plans for protecting properties and peoples lives. Adopting the standardized seismic loss assessment tool HAZUS, this study aims to present the methodology for investigating the economic feasibility of the pre-earthquake structural strengthening of buildings by means of benefit-cost analysis. Therefore, the specific objectives of this study are to: (1) to assess the seismic risks with building and demography parameters which can fully represent the characteristic of local built environment, (2) to conduct benefit-cost analysis of the seismic mitigation activities, and (3) to verify the applicability of the present methodology by a case study. To assess risk from earthquake hazards, both deterministic and probabilistic earthquake scenarios were simulated, combined with micro-zoning studies, geological characteristics, building inventories, population distribution, and adaptation of the building fragility curves and casualty matrix to the local conditions. This study intends to provide public decision makers a standardized methodology for justifying the economic feasibility of seismic risk mitigation alternatives so that a cost-efficient public earthquake mitigation strategy can be achieved.

The impact of behavior on the risk of injury and death during an earthquake: a simulation-based study

The use of casualty modeling in the field of disaster management is well established. Nevertheless, it is currently based almost exclusively on damage to the built environment and fails to consider additional factors that may influence the number of casualties in a given event, such as behavioral features of the exposed population. The present study has taken an innovative approach and integrated behavioral traits of residents in a high-risk area in northern Israel, near the Dead Sea Transform, into a well-known casualty estimation simulation. The expected behavioral characteristics of residents during an earthquake, in city sectors with different socioeconomic rankings, were assessed using a designated survey and were applied into the casualty estimation process. In order to test the sensitivity of the behavioral factor, twelve synthetic earthquake scenarios were designed. The results shed light on the relationship between specific behavioral strategies and casualty projections and suggest that loss estimation models that do not take behavioral factors into account may overestimate the projected number of casualties. Households with low socioeconomic status were found to be more vulnerable in terms of risk of injury and death compared with those ranked higher. The present study shows the importance of raising public awareness regarding proper behavior prior to and during the event which can help increase resilience of communities, mitigate risks and losses and ultimately save lives. Further implications of these results and possible ways of improving casualty modeling and community resilience are also discussed.

An integrated and interdisciplinary model for predicting the risk of injury and death in future earthquakes

Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.