Stefan Hedlund

The Russian economy after systemic change

AT LONG LAST, the summer of 1995 brought the first signs of what may turn out to be a process of recovery in the Russian economy. In June industrial production increased by 2% compared with May. From July onwards, monthly inflation rates fell steadily, reaching a low point of 3.2% in December. The rate of decline in GDP also decreased, from double digits in the years 1992-94 to a fall of merely 4% in 1995. In October the OECD released a study of the Russian economy which indicated that both inflation and the budget deficit were under control, looking forward to a possible real growth rate of 10% for 1996.1 The time would thus seem ripe to summarise what has happened, and to analyse why it happened in the way that it did. So far, the debate on Russian economic reform has been marked by two characteristics which have combined in a rather unfortunate manner to block traditional

Does Palermo represent the future for Moscow

This article addresses and expands on two points made by Robert Putnam in his recent study Making Democracy Work. The first concerns the observation that in order to find the cultural roots of Italian institution building, we may have to go further back in history than the 12th century, where Putnam stopped, and the second relates to the possible implications of this historical approach for the current transformation in the former Soviet bloc. The theoretical presentation revolves around the concepts of path dependence and multiple equilibria, finding much common ground between several of the social science disciplines. In conclusion it is argued that there may be cases of ‘pathological path dependence’, where public policy can have positive effects only if preceded by careful study of the anatomy of the pathological institutions that cause development traps.

Russia since 1980 : Wrestling with Westernization

Part I. Russia Before 1980: 1. Muscovy and the West 2. Reform communism Part II. Gorbachev: 3. Pandoras box 4. Blindmans bluff 5. Squalid superpower Part III. Yeltsin: 6. Demolition and system building 7. Crisis management Part IV. Putin: 8. Authoritarian reconsolidation 9. Heritage and neglect Part V. Advance and Retreat: 10. Semblance of democracy 11. Social change and adaptation 12. International relations Part VI. Prospects: 13. Sustainable growth 14. Russia in the Chinese looking glass Glossary.

Will the Russian Economy Revive under Putin

Although the numbers are improving, Russia’s economy is far from healthy. Putin has yet to address the crumbling infrastructure and nightmarish population crisis, problems that will prevent Russia from becoming a great power.