Stefan Leger

A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling

Radiomics applies machine learning algorithms to quantitative imaging data to characterise the tumour phenotype and predict clinical outcome. For the development of radiomics risk models, a variety of different algorithms is available and it is not clear which one gives optimal results. Therefore, we assessed the performance of 11 machine learning algorithms combined with 12 feature selection methods by the concordance index (C-Index), to predict loco-regional tumour control (LRC) and overall survival for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The considered algorithms are able to deal with continuous time-to-event survival data. Feature selection and model building were performed on a multicentre cohort (213 patients) and validated using an independent cohort (80 patients). We found several combinations of machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods which achieve similar results, e.g., MSR-RF: C-Index = 0.71 and BT-COX: C-Index = 0.70 in combination with Spearman feature selection. Using the best performing models, patients were stratified into groups of low and high risk of recurrence. Significant differences in LRC were obtained between both groups on the validation cohort. Based on the presented analysis, we identified a subset of algorithms which should be considered in future radiomics studies to develop stable and clinically relevant predictive models for time-to-event endpoints.

Development and Validation of a Gene Signature for Patients with Head and Neck Carcinomas Treated by Postoperative Radio(chemo)therapy

Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify and independently validate a novel gene signature predicting locoregional tumor control (LRC) for treatment individualization of patients with locally advanced HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) who are treated with postoperative radio(chemo)therapy (PORT-C). Experimental Design: Gene expression analyses were performed using NanoString technology on a multicenter training cohort of 130 patients and an independent validation cohort of 121 patients. The analyzed gene set was composed of genes with a previously reported association with radio(chemo)sensitivity or resistance to radio(chemo)therapy. Gene selection and model building were performed comparing several machine-learning algorithms. Results: We identified a 7-gene signature consisting of the three individual genes HILPDA, CD24, TCF3, and one metagene combining the highly correlated genes SERPINE1, INHBA, P4HA2, and ACTN1. The 7-gene signature was used, in combination with clinical parameters, to fit a multivariable Cox model to the training data (concordance index, ci = 0.82), which was successfully validated (ci = 0.71). The signature showed improved performance compared with clinical parameters alone (ci = 0.66) and with a previously published model including hypoxia-associated genes and cancer stem cell markers (ci = 0.65). It was used to stratify patients into groups with low and high risk of recurrence, leading to significant differences in LRC in training and validation (P < 0.001). Conclusions: We have identified and validated the first hypothesis-based gene signature for HPV-negative HNSCC treated by PORT-C including genes related to several radiobiological aspects. A prospective validation is planned in an ongoing prospective clinical trial before potential application in clinical trials for patient stratification. Clin Cancer Res; 24(6); 1364–74. ©2018 AACR.

CT imaging during treatment improves radiomic models for patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The development of radiomic risk models to predict clinical outcome is usually based on pre-treatment imaging, such as computed tomography (CT) scans used for radiation treatment planning. Imaging data acquired during the course of treatment may improve their prognostic performance. We compared the performance of radiomic risk models based on the pre-treatment CT and CT scans acquired in the second week of therapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS Treatment planning and second week CT scans of 78 head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with primary radiochemotherapy were collected. 1538 image features were extracted from each image. Prognostic models for loco-regional tumour control (LRC) and overall survival (OS) were built using 6 feature selection methods and 6 machine learning algorithms. Prognostic performance was assessed using the concordance index (C-Index). Furthermore, patients were stratified into risk groups and differences in LRC and OS were evaluated by log-rank tests. RESULTS The performance of radiomic risk model in predicting LRC was improved using the second week CT scans (C-Index: 0.79), in comparison to the pre-treatment CT scans (C-Index: 0.65). This was confirmed by Kaplan-Meier analyses, in which risk stratification based on the second week CT could be improved for LRC (p = 0.002) compared to pre-treatment CT (p = 0.063). CONCLUSION Incorporation of imaging during treatment may be a promising way to improve radiomic risk models for clinical treatment adaption, i.e., to select patients that may benefit from dose modification.