Stefan Sieber

Ex ante impact assessment of policies affecting land use, Part B: application of the analytical framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives.

Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part A: Analytical Framework

Contemporary policy making calls for scientific support to anticipate the possible consequences of optional policy decisions on sustainable development. This paper presents an analytical framework for ex ante assessment of economic, social, and environmental impacts of policy driven land use changes that can be used as an aid to policy making. The tasks were to (1) link policy scenarios with land use change simulations, (2) link land use change simulations with environmental, social, and economic impacts through indicators, and (3) valuate the impacts in the context of sustainable development. The outcome was a basis for dialogue at the science-policy interface in the process of developing new policies on the European level that impact on land and land use. The analytical approach provides a logical thread for ex ante impact assessment within the context of sustainable development, land use multifunctionality, and land use change and it provides a thorough discussion of achievements and open challenges related to the framework. It concludes with considerations on the potential for using evidence based ex ante assessments in the process of policy development. The paper is complemented by a B-paper providing exemplary results from two applications of the framework: a financial reform scenario of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, and a bioenergy policy scenario for the case of Poland (Helming et al. 2011).

Ex ante impact assessment of land use changes in European regions: the SENSOR approach

Land use includes those human activities that exhibit a spatial dimension and that change the bio-geophysical conditions of land. Land use policy making at European level aims at fostering sustainability pathways of natural resource use and rural development through the decoupling of economic growth from environmental degradation while supporting social cohesion in rural areas. Targeted policy making requires tools for the ex ante assessment of impacts of policy driven land use changes on sustainable development opportunities in European regions. These tools have to cover all relevant land use sectors and impact issues including their interrelations. They have to be spatially explicit, allow scenario analysis of possible future developments, be based on reproducible analyses, and be transparent and easy to use. The European Commission funded Integrated Project SENSOR is dedicated to develop such ex-ante Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT) for land use in European regions. SIAT is designed as a meta modelling toolkit, in which global economic trend and policy scenarios are translated into land use changes at 1km2 grid resolution for the area of Europe. Based on qualitative and quantitative indicator analyses, impacts of simulated land use changes on social, environmental and economic sustainability issues are assessed at regional (NUTS2/3) scale. Valuation of these impacts is based on the concept of multifunctionality of land use. It is conducted through expert and stakeholder valuations leading to the determination of sustainability choice spaces for European regions. This paper presents the analytical approach in SENSOR and describes the impact assessment framework.

Regional impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries using the FoPIA approach: Findings from five case studies

The impact of land use changes on sustainable development is of increasing interest in many regions of the world. This study aimed to test the transferability of the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA), which was originally developed in the European context, to developing countries, in which lack of data often prevents the use of data-driven impact assessment methods. The core aspect of FoPIA is the stakeholder-based assessment of alternative land use scenarios. Scenario impacts on regional sustainability are assessed by using a set of nine regional land use functions (LUFs), which equally cover the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. The cases analysed in this study include (1) the alternative spatial planning policies around the Merapi volcano and surrounding areas of Yogyakarta City, Indonesia; (2) the large-scale afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan, China; (3) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia; (4) the agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur, India; and (5) the land degradation and land conflicts resulting from land division and privatisation in Narok, Kenya. All five regions are characterised by population growth, partially combined with considerable economic development, environmental degradation problems and social conflicts. Implications of the regional scenario impacts as well as methodological aspects are discussed. Overall, FoPIA proved to be a useful tool for diagnosing regional human-environment interactions and for supporting the communication and social learning process among different stakeholder groups.

Transfer into decision support: The Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT)

This paper focuses on the development process and performance of the integrated meta-model Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT), whose appropriateness for Sustainability Impact Assessment is finally discussed.

Bridging the gaps between design and use: developing tools to support environmental management and policy

Abstract Integrated assessment models, decision support systems (DSS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are examples of a growing number of computer-based tools designed to provide decision and information support to people engaged in formulating and implementing environmental policy and management. It is recognised that environmental policy and management users are often not as receptive to using such tools as desired but that little research has been done to uncover and understand the reasons. There is a diverse range of environmental decision and information support tools (DISTs) with uses including organisational and participatory decision support, and scientific research. The different uses and users of DISTs each present particular needs and challenges to the tool developers. The lack of appreciation of the needs of end-users by developers has contributed to the lack of success of many DISTs. Therefore it is important to engage users and other stakeholders in the tool development process to help bridge the gap between design and use. Good practice recommendations for developers to involve users include being clear about the purpose of the tool, working collaboratively with other developers and stakeholders, and building social and scientific credibility.

Ex-ante Impact Assessments (IA) in the European Commission — an overview

Ex-ante Impact Assessment (IA) was officially introduced into European Commission (EC) policy making in 2002. It is understood as a formal procedure to analyse potential effects of new policies before their adoption. The two main drivers behind this EC initiative are the EU Sustainable Development Strategy and the Better Regulation agenda. IA is carried out on policy level by the Secretariat General of the EC.

Adoption Potential of Conservation Agriculture Practices in Sub-Saharan Africa: Results from Five Case Studies

Despite the reported benefits of conservation agriculture (CA), its wider up-scaling in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has remained fairly limited. This paper shows how a newly developed qualitative expert assessment approach for CA adoption (QAToCA) was applied to determine its adoption potential in SSA. CA adoption potential is not a predictor of observed adoption rates. Instead, our aim was to systematically check relevant factors that may be influencing its adoption. QAToCA delivers an assessment of how suitable conditions “and thus the likelihood for CA adoption” are. Results show that the high CA adoption potentials exhibited by the Malawi and Zambia case relate mostly to positive institutional factors. On the other hand, the low adoption potential of the Zimbabwe case, in spite of observed higher estimates, is attributed mainly to unstable and less secured market conditions for CA. In the case of Southern Burkina Faso, the potential for CA adoption is determined to be high, and this assessment deviates from lower observed figures. This is attributed mainly to strong competition of CA and livestock for residues in this region. Lastly, the high adoption potential found in Northern Burkina Faso is explained mainly by the fact that farmers here have no alternative other than to adopt the locally adapted CA system—Zaï farming. Results of this assessment should help promoters of CA in the given regions to reflect on their activities and to eventually adjust or redesign them based on a more explicit understanding of where problems and opportunities are found.

Farmers’ knowledge and perception of climatic risks and options for climate change adaptation: a case study from two Tanzanian villages

An in-depth understanding of the multiple layers of factors that shape farmers’ knowledge and perception of climatic risks and their adaptive responses is a prerequisite for well-targeted agricultural adaptation planning. However, while farmers’ perception is increasingly understood as being a key determinant, a conceptual framework that includes this focus of analyses is currently not available. Against this background, this study analyzes the agricultural adaptation context in two Tanzanian villages building on a newly developed agricultural adaptation and perception model (AAP). The AAP contains five dimensions as a frame of reference for empirical adaptation models: non-climatic determinants of vulnerability (1), general trends in livelihood strategies (2), perception of climatic trends (3), climate impacts in agriculture (4) and potentials and obstacles for adaptation (5). Empirical data were collected by applying various tools of rapid rural appraisal, a stakeholder workshop and supplementary interviews. The qualitative data were coded along the dimensions of the AAP and analyzed by means of qualitative content analysis. The results show that adaptation levels, sensitivities of the farming systems as well as perception and narratives about climatic and yield dynamics differ considerably among the two farming communities. Furthermore, farmers’ adaptation responses are influenced by both their framing of climatic trends as well as the multiple benefits that the local agricultural systems provide. Thus, for improving food security in the face of climate change, farmers’ perceptions and the multi-functionality of agricultural systems need to be explicitly recognized by agronomic adaptation research, and adaptation policy making should involve detailed vulnerability assessments.

Assessing the determinants of poverty and vulnerability of smallholder farmers in a changing climate: the case of Morogoro region, Tanzania

Abstract This paper analyses the determinants of poverty and vulnerability of smallholder farmers in the rural areas in the face of climate change. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted between December 2009 and January 2010 covering 240 households in six villages of Morogoro region, Tanzania. Descriptive and the econometric approaches involving three-stage least squares (3SLS) and generalized methods of moments (GMM) regressions were used to analyse poverty and vulnerability. Results indicate that income poverty was prevalent in the study area—based on a daily income per capita poverty line of US