Stefano Ciatto

Screening and Prostate-Cancer Mortality in a Randomized European Study

BACKGROUND The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer was initiated in the early 1990s to evaluate the effect of screening with prostate-specific-antigen (PSA) testing on death rates from prostate cancer. METHODS We identified 182,000 men between the ages of 50 and 74 years through registries in seven European countries for inclusion in our study. The men were randomly assigned to a group that was offered PSA screening at an average of once every 4 years or to a control group that did not receive such screening. The predefined core age group for this study included 162,243 men between the ages of 55 and 69 years. The primary outcome was the rate of death from prostate cancer. Mortality follow-up was identical for the two study groups and ended on December 31, 2006. RESULTS In the screening group, 82% of men accepted at least one offer of screening. During a median follow-up of 9 years, the cumulative incidence of prostate cancer was 8.2% in the screening group and 4.8% in the control group. The rate ratio for death from prostate cancer in the screening group, as compared with the control group, was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65 to 0.98; adjusted P=0.04). The absolute risk difference was 0.71 death per 1000 men. This means that 1410 men would need to be screened and 48 additional cases of prostate cancer would need to be treated to prevent one death from prostate cancer. The analysis of men who were actually screened during the first round (excluding subjects with noncompliance) provided a rate ratio for death from prostate cancer of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.90). CONCLUSIONS PSA-based screening reduced the rate of death from prostate cancer by 20% but was associated with a high risk of overdiagnosis. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN49127736.)

Prostate-cancer mortality at 11 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND Several trials evaluating the effect of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on prostate-cancer mortality have shown conflicting results. We updated prostate-cancer mortality in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer with 2 additional years of follow-up. METHODS The study involved 182,160 men between the ages of 50 and 74 years at entry, with a predefined core age group of 162,388 men 55 to 69 years of age. The trial was conducted in eight European countries. Men who were randomly assigned to the screening group were offered PSA-based screening, whereas those in the control group were not offered such screening. The primary outcome was mortality from prostate cancer. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 11 years in the core age group, the relative reduction in the risk of death from prostate cancer in the screening group was 21% (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.91; P=0.001), and 29% after adjustment for noncompliance. The absolute reduction in mortality in the screening group was 0.10 deaths per 1000 person-years or 1.07 deaths per 1000 men who underwent randomization. The rate ratio for death from prostate cancer during follow-up years 10 and 11 was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.85; P=0.003). To prevent one death from prostate cancer at 11 years of follow-up, 1055 men would need to be invited for screening and 37 cancers would need to be detected. There was no significant between-group difference in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS Analyses after 2 additional years of follow-up consolidated our previous finding that PSA-based screening significantly reduced mortality from prostate cancer but did not affect all-cause mortality. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN49127736.).

Accuracy and Surgical Impact of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Breast Cancer Staging: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis in Detection of Multifocal and Multicentric Cancer

PURPOSE We review the evidence on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in staging the affected breast to determine its accuracy and impact on treatment. METHODS Systematic review and meta-analysis of the accuracy of MRI in detection of multifocal (MF) and/or multicentric (MC) cancer not identified on conventional imaging. We estimated summary receiver operating characteristic curves, positive predictive value (PPV), true-positive (TP) to false positive (FP) ratio, and examined their variability according to quality criteria. Pooled estimates of the proportion of women whose surgery was altered were calculated. Results Data from 19 studies showed MRI detects additional disease in 16% of women with breast cancer (N = 2,610). MRI incremental accuracy differed according to the reference standard (RS; P = .016) decreasing from 99% to 86% as the quality of the RS increased. Summary PPV was 66% (95% CI, 52% to 77%) and TP:FP ratio was 1.91 (95% CI, 1.09 to 3.34). Conversion from wide local excision (WLE) to mastectomy was 8.1% (95% CI, 5.9 to 11.3), from WLE to more extensive surgery was 11.3% in MF/MC disease (95% CI, 6.8 to 18.3). Due to MRI-detected lesions (in women who did not have additional malignancy on histology) conversion from WLE to mastectomy was 1.1% (95% CI, 0.3 to 3.6) and from WLE to more extensive surgery was 5.5% (95% CI, 3.1 to 9.5). CONCLUSION MRI staging causes more extensive breast surgery in an important proportion of women by identifying additional cancer, however there is a need to reduce FP MRI detection. Randomized trials are needed to determine the clinical value of detecting additional disease which changes surgical treatment in women with apparently localized breast cancer.

Integration of 3D digital mammography with tomosynthesis for population breast-cancer screening (STORM): a prospective comparison study

BACKGROUND Digital breast tomosynthesis with 3D images might overcome some of the limitations of conventional 2D mammography for detection of breast cancer. We investigated the effect of integrated 2D and 3D mammography in population breast-cancer screening. METHODS Screening with Tomosynthesis OR standard Mammography (STORM) was a prospective comparative study. We recruited asymptomatic women aged 48 years or older who attended population-based breast-cancer screening through the Trento and Verona screening services (Italy) from August, 2011, to June, 2012. We did screen-reading in two sequential phases-2D only and integrated 2D and 3D mammography-yielding paired data for each screen. Standard double-reading by breast radiologists determined whether to recall the participant based on positive mammography at either screen read. Outcomes were measured from final assessment or excision histology. Primary outcome measures were the number of detected cancers, the number of detected cancers per 1000 screens, the number and proportion of false positive recalls, and incremental cancer detection attributable to integrated 2D and 3D mammography. We compared paired binary data with McNemars test. FINDINGS 7292 women were screened (median age 58 years [IQR 54-63]). We detected 59 breast cancers (including 52 invasive cancers) in 57 women. Both 2D and integrated 2D and 3D screening detected 39 cancers. We detected 20 cancers with integrated 2D and 3D only versus none with 2D screening only (p<0.0001). Cancer detection rates were 5.3 cancers per 1000 screens (95% CI 3.8-7.3) for 2D only, and 8.1 cancers per 1000 screens (6.2-10.4) for integrated 2D and 3D screening. The incremental cancer detection rate attributable to integrated 2D and 3D mammography was 2.7 cancers per 1000 screens (1.7-4.2). 395 screens (5.5%; 95% CI 5.0-6.0) resulted in false positive recalls: 181 at both screen reads, and 141 with 2D only versus 73 with integrated 2D and 3D screening (p<0.0001). We estimated that conditional recall (positive integrated 2D and 3D mammography as a condition to recall) could have reduced false positive recalls by 17.2% (95% CI 13.6-21.3) without missing any of the cancers detected in the study population. INTERPRETATION Integrated 2D and 3D mammography improves breast-cancer detection and has the potential to reduce false positive recalls. Randomised controlled trials are needed to compare integrated 2D and 3D mammography with 2D mammography for breast cancer screening. FUNDING National Breast Cancer Foundation, Australia; National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia; Hologic, USA; Technologic, Italy.

Large-scale randomized prostate cancer screening trials: Program performances in the European randomized screening for prostate cancer trial and the prostate, lung, colorectal and ovary cancer trial

Two large‐scale randomized screening trials, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovary (PLCO) cancer trial in the USA and the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) trial in Europe are currently under way, aimed at assessing whether screening reduces prostate cancer mortality. Up to the end of 1998, 102,691 men have been randomized to the intervention arm and 115,322 to the control arm (which represents 83% of the target sample size) from 7 European countries and 10 screening centers in the USA. The principal screening method at all centers is determination of serum prostate‐specific antigen (PSA). The PLCO trial and some European centers use also digital rectal examination (DRE) as an ancillary screening test. In the core age group (55–69 years), 3,362 of 32,486 men screened (10%) had a serum PSA concentration of 4 ng/ml or greater, which is 1 cut‐off for biopsy (performed in 84%). An additional 6% was referred for further assessment based on other criteria, with much less efficiency. Differences in PSA by country are largely attributable to the age structure of the study population. The mean age‐specific PSA levels are lower in the PLCO trial (1.64 ng/ml [in the age group 55–59 years], 1.80 [60–64 years] and 2.18 [65–69 years) than in the ERSPC trial (1.28–1.71 [55–59], 1.75–2.87 [60–64] and 2.48–3.06 [65–69 years]). Detection rates at the first screen in the ERSPC trial range from 11 to 42/1,000 men screened and reflect underlying differences in incidence rates and screening procedures. In centers with consent to randomization design, adherence in the screening arm is 91%, but less than half of the men in the target population are enrolled in the trial. In population‐based centers in which men were randomized prior to consent, all eligible subjects are enrolled, but only about two‐thirds of the men in the intervention arm undergo screening. Considerable progress has been made in both trials. Enrollment will be completed in 2001. A substantial number of early prostate cancers have been detected. The differences between countries seem to reflect both underlying prostate cancer incidence and screening policy. The trials have the power to show definitive results in 2005–2008.

Management of elderly patients with breast cancer: updated recommendations of the International Society of Geriatric Oncology (SIOG) and European Society of Breast Cancer Specialists (EUSOMA)

As the mean age of the global population increases, breast cancer in older individuals will be increasingly encountered in clinical practice. Management decisions should not be based on age alone. Establishing recommendations for management of older individuals with breast cancer is challenging because of very limited level 1 evidence in this heterogeneous population. In 2007, the International Society of Geriatric Oncology (SIOG) created a task force to provide evidence-based recommendations for the management of breast cancer in elderly individuals. In 2010, a multidisciplinary SIOG and European Society of Breast Cancer Specialists (EUSOMA) task force gathered to expand and update the 2007 recommendations. The recommendations were expanded to include geriatric assessment, competing causes of mortality, ductal carcinoma in situ, drug safety and compliance, patient preferences, barriers to treatment, and male breast cancer. Recommendations were updated for screening, primary endocrine therapy, surgery, radiotherapy, neoadjuvant and adjuvant systemic therapy, and metastatic breast cancer.

Quality-of-Life Effects of Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening

BACKGROUND After 11 years of follow-up, the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) reported a 29% reduction in prostate-cancer mortality among men who underwent screening for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. However, the extent to which harms to quality of life resulting from overdiagnosis and treatment counterbalance this benefit is uncertain. METHODS On the basis of ERSPC follow-up data, we used Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN) to predict the number of prostate cancers, treatments, deaths, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained after the introduction of PSA screening. Various screening strategies, efficacies, and quality-of-life assumptions were modeled. RESULTS Per 1000 men of all ages who were followed for their entire life span, we predicted that annual screening of men between the ages of 55 and 69 years would result in nine fewer deaths from prostate cancer (28% reduction), 14 fewer men receiving palliative therapy (35% reduction), and a total of 73 life-years gained (average, 8.4 years per prostate-cancer death avoided). The number of QALYs that were gained was 56 (range, -21 to 97), a reduction of 23% from unadjusted life-years gained. To prevent one prostate-cancer death, 98 men would need to be screened and 5 cancers would need to be detected. Screening of all men between the ages of 55 and 74 would result in more life-years gained (82) but the same number of QALYs (56). CONCLUSIONS The benefit of PSA screening was diminished by loss of QALYs owing to postdiagnosis long-term effects. Longer follow-up data from both the ERSPC and quality-of-life analyses are essential before universal recommendations regarding screening can be made. (Funded by the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development and others.).

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Screening of the Contralateral Breast in Women With Newly Diagnosed Breast Cancer: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Incremental Cancer Detection and Impact on Surgical Management

PURPOSE Preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is increasingly used for staging women with breast cancer, including screening for occult contralateral cancer. This article is a review and meta-analysis of studies reporting contralateral MRI in women with newly diagnosed invasive breast cancer. METHODS We systematically reviewed the evidence on contralateral MRI, calculating pooled estimates for positive predictive value (PPV), true-positive:false-positive ratio (TP:FP), and incremental cancer detection rate (ICDR) over conventional imaging. Random effects logistic regression examined whether estimates were associated with study quality or clinical variables. RESULTS Twenty-two studies reported contralateral malignancies detected only by MRI in 131 of 3,253 women. Summary estimates were as follows: MRI-detected suspicious findings (TP plus FP), 9.3% (95% CI, 5.8% to 14.7%); ICDR, 4.1% (95% CI, 2.7% to 6.0%), PPV, 47.9% (95% CI, 31.8% to 64.6%); TP:FP ratio, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.47 to 1.82). PPV was associated with the number of test positives and baseline imaging. Few studies included consecutive women, and few ascertained outcomes in all subjects. Where reported, 35.1% of MRI-detected cancers were ductal carcinoma in situ (mean size = 6.9 mm), 64.9% were invasive cancers (mean size = 9.3 mm), and the majority were stage pTis or pT1 and node negative. Effect on treatment was inconsistently reported, but many women underwent contralateral mastectomy. CONCLUSION MRI detects contralateral lesions in a substantial proportion of women, but does not reliably distinguish benign from malignant findings. Relatively high ICDR may be due to selection bias and/or overdetection. Women must be informed of the uncertain benefit and potential harm, including additional investigations and surgery.

Preoperative Ultrasound-Guided Needle Biopsy of Axillary Nodes in Invasive Breast Cancer: Meta-Analysis of Its Accuracy and Utility in Staging the Axilla

Objective: Systematic evidence synthesis of ultrasound-guided needle biopsy (UNB) of axillary nodes in breast cancer. Summary Background Data: Women affected by invasive breast cancer undergo initial staging with sentinel node biopsy, generally progressing to axillary node dissection (AND) if metastases are found. Preoperative UNB can potentially identify and triage women with node metastases directly to AND. Methods: Review and meta-analysis of studies reporting UNB accuracy: we estimated sensitivity, specificity, and PPV, using bivariate random-effects models and examined the effect of covariates; we calculated UNB utility (effect on axillary surgery). Results: Thirty-one studies provided 2874 UNB data from 6166 subjects (median proportion with metastatic nodes 47.2%; IQR 39.5%, 61.2%). Modeled estimates for UNB were: sensitivity 79.6% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 74.1–84.2), specificity 98.3% (95%CI 97.2–99.0), PPV 97.1% (95%CI 95.2–98.3); median UNB insufficiency was 4.1% (IQR0%–10.9%). UNB sensitivity increased with increasing ultrasound sensitivity, and was higher in studies performing UNB for “suspicious” than for “visible” nodes. Specificity was higher in studies of consecutive (vs. selected) subjects, in studies reporting ultrasound data, and in more recent studies. Median proportion of women triaged directly to AND (attributed to UNB) was 19.8% (IQR11.6%–28.1%) or 17.7% (IQR11.6%–27.1%) if restricted to clinically node-negative series. Median proportion of women with metastatic axillary nodes potentially triaged to AND was 55.2% (IQR41.8%–68.2%) and was higher (65.6%; IQR48.9%–69.7%) in the subgroup of studies with median tumor size ≥21 mm. Conclusions: Preoperative UNB of the axilla is accurate for initial staging of women with invasive breast cancer. Meta-analysis indicates that UNB provides better utility in women with average or higher underlying risk of node metastases.

Prostate Cancer Mortality Reduction by Prostate-Specific Antigen-Based Screening Adjusted for Nonattendance and Contamination in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC)

BACKGROUND Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) based screening for prostate cancer (PCa) has been shown to reduce prostate specific mortality by 20% in an intention to screen (ITS) analysis in a randomised trial (European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC]). This effect may be diluted by nonattendance in men randomised to the screening arm and contamination in men randomised to the control arm. OBJECTIVE To assess the magnitude of the PCa-specific mortality reduction after adjustment for nonattendance and contamination. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We analysed the occurrence of PCa deaths during an average follow-up of 9 yr in 162,243 men 55-69 yr of age randomised in seven participating centres of the ERSPC. Centres were also grouped according to the type of randomisation (ie, before or after informed written consent). INTERVENTION Nonattendance was defined as nonattending the initial screening round in ERSPC. The estimate of contamination was based on PSA use in controls in ERSPC Rotterdam. MEASUREMENTS Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were compared between an ITS analysis and analyses adjusting for nonattendance and contamination using a statistical method developed for this purpose. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS In the ITS analysis, the RR of PCa death in men allocated to the intervention arm relative to the control arm was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68-0.96). Adjustment for nonattendance resulted in a RR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.93), and additional adjustment for contamination using two different estimates led to estimated reductions of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.51-0.92) to 0.71 (95% CI, 0.55-0.93), respectively. Contamination data were obtained through extrapolation of single-centre data. No heterogeneity was found between the groups of centres. CONCLUSIONS PSA screening reduces the risk of dying of PCa by up to 31% in men actually screened. This benefit should be weighed against a degree of overdiagnosis and overtreatment inherent in PCa screening.