Stefano Cresci

EARS (earthquake alert and report system): a real time decision support system for earthquake crisis management

Social sensing is based on the idea that communities or groups of people can provide a set of information similar to those obtainable from a sensor network. Emergency management is a candidate field of application for social sensing. In this work we describe the design, implementation and deployment of a decision support system for the detection and the damage assessment of earthquakes in Italy. Our system exploits the messages shared in real-time on Twitter, one of the most popular social networks in the world. Data mining and natural language processing techniques are employed to select meaningful and comprehensive sets of tweets. We then apply a burst detection algorithm in order to promptly identify outbreaking seismic events. Detected events are automatically broadcasted by our system via a dedicated Twitter account and by email notifications. In addition, we mine the content of the messages associated to an event to discover knowledge on its consequences. Finally we compare our results with official data provided by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), the authority responsible for monitoring seismic events in Italy. The INGV network detects shaking levels produced by the earthquake, but can only model the damage scenario by using empirical relationships. This scenario can be greatly improved with direct information site by site. Results show that the system has a great ability to detect events of a magnitude in the region of 3.5, with relatively low occurrences of false positives. Earthquake detection mostly occurs within seconds of the event and far earlier than the notifications shared by INGV or by other official channels. Thus, we are able to alert interested parties promptly. Information discovered by our system can be extremely useful to all the government agencies interested in mitigating the impact of earthquakes, as well as the news agencies looking for fresh information to publish.

Fame for sale

Fake followers are those Twitter accounts specifically created to inflate the number of followers of a target account. Fake followers are dangerous for the social platform and beyond, since they may alter concepts like popularity and influence in the Twittersphere-hence impacting on economy, politics, and society. In this paper, we contribute along different dimensions. First, we review some of the most relevant existing features and rules (proposed by Academia and Media) for anomalous Twitter accounts detection. Second, we create a baseline dataset of verified human and fake follower accounts. Such baseline dataset is publicly available to the scientific community. Then, we exploit the baseline dataset to train a set of machine-learning classifiers built over the reviewed rules and features. Our results show that most of the rules proposed by Media provide unsatisfactory performance in revealing fake followers, while features proposed in the past by Academia for spam detection provide good results. Building on the most promising features, we revise the classifiers both in terms of reduction of overfitting and cost for gathering the data needed to compute the features. The final result is a novel Class A classifier, general enough to thwart overfitting, lightweight thanks to the usage of the less costly features, and still able to correctly classify more than 95% of the accounts of the original training set. We ultimately perform an information fusion-based sensitivity analysis, to assess the global sensitivity of each of the features employed by the classifier.The findings reported in this paper, other than being supported by a thorough experimental methodology and interesting on their own, also pave the way for further investigation on the novel issue of fake Twitter followers.

A Linguistically-driven Approach to Cross-Event Damage Assessment of Natural Disasters from Social Media Messages

This work focuses on the analysis of Italian social media messages for disaster management and aims at the detection of messages carrying critical information for the damage assessment task. A main novelty of this study consists in the focus on out-domain and cross-event damage detection, and on the investigation of the most relevant tweet-derived features for these tasks. We devised different experiments by resorting to a wide set of linguistic features qualifying the lexical and grammatical structure of a text as well as ad-hoc features specifically implemented for this task. We investigated the most effective features that allow to achieve the best results. A further result of this study is the construction of the first manually annotated Italian corpus of social media messages for damage assessment.

Earthquake emergency management by social sensing

Social Sensing is based on the idea that communities or groups of people provide a set of information similar to those obtainable from a single sensor. This amount of information generate a complex and adequate knowledge of one or more specific issues. A possible field of application for Social Sensing is Emergency Management. By using the Social Media it is possible to gather updated information about emerging situations of danger, in order to gain greater situational awareness and to alert interested parties promptly or verify information obtained through other channels. A system able to timely detect events that are of social concern can be referred to as an Early Warning system. In this work we propose a novel and general architecture for an early warning system and, as a proof-of-concept, we describe an implementation of this architecture for a real scenario. We use Twitter as source of information for the detection of earthquakes on the Italian territory. We compare our results with official data provided by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, the authority responsible for the monitoring of seismic events in Italy. Results show an high ability of the system in the timely detection of events with magnitude equal or greater than 3.5 Richter with only 10% of False Positives.

The Paradigm-Shift of Social Spambots: Evidence, Theories, and Tools for the Arms Race

Recent studies in social media spam and automation provide anecdotal argumentation of the rise of a new generation of spambots, so-called social spambots. Here, for the first time, we extensively study this novel phenomenon on Twitter and we provide quantitative evidence that a paradigm-shift exists in spambot design. First, we measure current Twitters capabilities of detecting the new social spambots. Later, we assess the human performance in discriminating between genuine accounts, social spambots, and traditional spambots. Then, we benchmark several state-of-the-art techniques proposed by the academic literature. Results show that neither Twitter, nor humans, nor cutting-edge applications are currently capable of accurately detecting the new social spambots. Our results call for new approaches capable of turning the tide in the fight against this raising phenomenon. We conclude by reviewing the latest literature on spambots detection and we highlight an emerging common research trend based on the analysis of collective behaviors. Insights derived from both our extensive experimental campaign and survey shed light on the most promising directions of research and lay the foundations for the arms race against the novel social spambots. Finally, to foster research on this novel phenomenon, we make publicly available to the scientific community all the datasets used in this study.

DNA-Inspired Online Behavioral Modeling and Its Application to Spambot Detection

A novel, simple, and effective approach to modeling online user behavior extracts and analyzes digital DNA sequences from user online actions and uses Twitter as a benchmark to test the proposal. Specifically, the model obtains an incisive and compact DNA-inspired characterization of user actions. Then, standard DNA analysis techniques discriminate between genuine and spambot accounts on Twitter. An experimental campaign supports the proposal, showing its effectiveness and viability. Although Twitter spambot detection is a specific use case on a specific social media platform, the proposed methodology is platform and technology agnostic, paving the way for diverse behavioral characterization tasks.

Impromptu Crisis Mapping to Prioritize Emergency Response

To visualize post-emergency damage, a crisis-mapping system uses readily available semantic annotators, a machine-learning classifier to analyze relevant tweets, and interactive maps to rank extracted situational information. The system was validated against data from two recent disasters in Italy.

Pulling Information from social media in the aftermath of unpredictable disasters

Social media have become a primary communication channel among people and are continuously overwhelmed by huge volumes of User Generated Content. This is especially true in the aftermath of unpredictable disasters, when users report facts, descriptions and photos of the unfolding event. This material contains actionable information that can greatly help rescuers to achieve a better response to crises, but its volume and variety render manual processing unfeasible. This paper reports the experience we gained from developing and using a web-enabled system for the online detection and monitoring of unpredictable events such as earthquakes and floods. The system captures selected message streams from Twitter and offers decision support functionalities for acquiring situational awareness from textual content and for quantifying the impact of disasters. The software architecture of the system is described and the approaches adopted for messages filtering, emergency detection and emergency monitoring are discussed. For each module, the results of real-world experiments are reported. The modular design makes the system easy configurable and allowed us to conduct experiments on different crises, including Emilia earthquake in 2012 and Genoa flood in 2014. Finally, some possible functionalities relying on the analysis of multimedia information are introduced.

Social Fingerprinting: Detection of Spambot Groups Through DNA-Inspired Behavioral Modeling

Spambot detection in online social networks is a long-lasting challenge involving the study and design of detection techniques capable of efficiently identifying ever-evolving spammers. Recently, a new wave of social spambots has emerged, with advanced human-like characteristics that allow them to go undetected even by current state-of-the-art algorithms. In this paper, we show that efficient spambots detection can be achieved via an in-depth analysis of their collective behaviors exploiting the digital DNA technique for modeling the behaviors of social network users. Inspired by its biological counterpart, in the digital DNA representation the behavioral lifetime of a digital account is encoded in a sequence of characters. Then, we define a similarity measure for such digital DNA sequences. We build upon digital DNA and the similarity between groups of users to characterize both genuine accounts and spambots. Leveraging such a characterization, we design the Social Fingerprinting technique, which is able to discriminate among spambots and genuine accounts in both a supervised and an unsupervised fashion. We also evaluate the effectiveness of Social Fingerprinting and we compare it with three state-of-the-art detection showing the superiority of our solution. Finally, among the peculiarities of our approach is the possibility to apply off-the-shelf DNA analysis techniques to study online users behaviors and to efficiently rely on a limited number of lightweight account characteristics.

Nowcasting of Earthquake Consequences Using Big Social Data

Messages posted to social media in the aftermath of a natural disaster have value beyond detecting the event itself. Mining such deliberately dropped digital traces allows a precise situational awareness, to help provide a timely estimate of the disaster’s consequences on the population and infrastructures. Yet, to date, the automatic assessment of damage has received little attention. Here, the authors explore feeding predictive models by tweets conveying on-the-ground social sensors’ observations, to nowcast the perceived intensity of earthquakes.