Stefano Mazzotta

The Unconditional and Conditional Exchange Rate Exposure of U.S. Firms

We re-examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and firm value. We estimate the exchange rate exposure of publicly listed U.S. firms clustered into eleven industries. Using a panel approach, we uncover statistically significant and sizable unconditional exposure. We also examine the dynamics of exchange rate exposure modeled as a function of business cycle indicators and firm characteristics. We find that exposure varies over time with macroeconomic and financial variables and increases during economic contractions. Deviations from the unconditional measure of exposure driven by the macroeconomic variables are economically meaningful.

Is Exchange Risk Priced Beyond Intertemporal Risk

Recent conditional tests show that exchange risk is priced in integrated international markets. However, these results are typically obtained assuming that intertemporal risk does not matter. We test an intertemporal international asset-pricing model where the investment opportunity set is dynamic. Using a conditional orthogonalization approach, we investigate whether the exchange risk is priced once the market and intertemporal risks are fully taken into account. We find that, in addition to the market and intertemporal risks, the exchange risk is an important determinant of risk premium. We also find that the intertemporal risk, which is often overlooked in the literature, is priced.

Performance, Bias, and Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Correlation Forecasts

This paper evaluates the performance, bias, and the efficiency of option-implied, and return-based correlation measures using twelve years of daily data on foreign exchange and over-the-counter (OTC) currency option. The sample includes five years of rates for the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna with respect to the euro and the U.S. dollar. The results show that implied correlation is a good predictor of realized correlation and is, generally, unbiased and efficient.