Stefano Paternostro

Robustness of Subjective Welfare Analysis in a Poor Developing Country: Madagascar 2001

We analyse the subjective perceptions of poverty in Madagascar in 2001 and their relationship to objective poverty indicators. We base our analysis on survey responses to a series of subjective perception questions. We extend the existing empirical methodology for estimating subjective poverty lines on the basis of categorical consumption adequacy questions. Based on this methodology, we calculate the household-specific, subjective poverty lines. We are able to compare between the results of subjective poverty analysis using several types of subjective welfare questions. Our results show that the aggregate poverty measures derived from consumption adequacy questions accord quite well with the poverty measures based on objective poverty lines. We demonstrate that the subjective welfare analysis can be used in poor developing countries for evaluating socio-economic and distributional impacts of various policy interventions.

How does the Composition of Public Spending Matter

Public spending has effects on growth and distribution that are complex to trace and difficult to quantify. But the composition of public expenditure has become the key instrument by which development agencies seek to promote economic development. In recent years, the development assistance to heavily indebted poor countries has been made conditional on increased expenditure on categories that are thought to be “pro-poor”. This paper investigates the conceptual foundations and the empirical basis for the belief that poverty can be reduced through targeted public spending. While it is widely accepted that growth and redistribution are important sources of reduction in absolute poverty, a review of the literature confirms the lack of an appropriate theoretical framework for assessing the impact of public spending on growth as well as poverty. The dangers of policy decisions that are not well grounded in theory and supported by empirical evidence are indicated. With regard to the impact of any given type of public spending, policy recommendations must be tailored to countries and be based on empirical analysis that takes account of the lags and leads in their effects on equity and growth and ultimately on poverty. The paper sketches out such a framework and provides some evidence as the first step in what will have to be a longer-term research agenda to provide theoretically and empirically robust and verifiable guidance to public spending policy.

Wage Determination and Gender Discrimination in a Transition Economy: The Case of Romania

The authors analyze wage determination and gender discrimination in Romania using the 1994 Romanian Household survey. They estimate wages for men and women in urban and rural areas using a Heckman selection model. They analyze gender discrimination in offered wages, to address the methodological shortcomings found in the literature. Increasing returns to education and experience are consistently significant for both men and women in urban and rural areas. Returns to education are greater in rural than in urban areas, especially for women. Labor markets are segmented regionally, probably as a result of the countrys economic history, especially the spatial allocation of resources under a centrally planned economy. Only with economic liberalization has the specialization of specific regions translated into differences in regional performance and hence local economic differences. They found discrimination against women in both urban and rural labor markets, especially at low levels of education. The observed bias against women in urban areas is comparable to that found in other Western countries--but in the regions rural settings the bias is much greater than in the West. With the adjustment to market forces, as less-skilled workers face increasing difficulties in the region, womens relative wages may be expected to decline further. Discrepancy in pay also directly affects the level of pensions, unemployment benefits, and other means-tested benefits to workers, contributing to pauperization.

Poverty and social impact analysis of reforms : Lessons and examples from implementation

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) is an approach used increasingly by governments, civil society organizations, the World Bank, and other development partners to examine the distributional impacts of policy reforms on the well-being of different stakeholders groups, particularly the poor and vulnerable. PSIA has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries because it promotes evidence-based policy choices and fosters debate on policy reform options. This publication presents a collection of case studies that illustrate the spectrum of sectors and policy reforms to which PSIA can be applied; it also elaborates on the broad range of analytical tools and techniques that can be used for PSIA. The case studies provide examples of the impact that PSIA can have on the design of policy reforms and draw operational lessons for PSIA implementation. The case studies deal largely with policy reforms in a single sector, such as agriculture (crop marketing boards in Malawi and Tanzania and cotton privatization in Tajikistan); energy (mining sector in Romania and oil subsidies in Ghana); utilities (power sector reform in Ghana, Rwanda, and transition economies, and water sector reform in Albania); social sectors (education reform in Mozambique and social welfare reform in Sri Lanka); taxation reform (Nicaragua); as well as macroeconomic modeling (Burkina Faso).

The returns to participation in the non-farm sector in rural Rwanda

In this paper, we investigate the differences in outcomes (earnings and consumption) between individuals (households) who participate in the non-farm sector and those who do not. We use propensity score matching methods, where we create appropriate comparison groups of individuals and households. First we find that non-farm self-employed individuals in rural Rwanda have significantly higher earnings than farm workers and non-farm formal employees. Second, we show that the benefits to non-farm self-employment are much higher among the non-poor than among the poor. Third, we show that diversified households, those with a farm and a non-farm enterprise, are less likely to be poor. Finally, farm households who do not participate in the market have significantly lower consumption levels than households that do. However, the benefits to market participation appear to matter less for the poor than for the non-poor. We find little difference in expenditures between market participants and non-market participants, for comparable households in the bottom 40% of the expenditure distribution.

The Early Stages of Reform in Polish Manufacturing: Structural Adjustment, Ownership and Size

This paper argues that a significant adjustment process has taken place in Polish industry in the early stages of the market-oriented reforms. We analyze comprehensive data on two-digit and three-digit manufacturing industries, disaggregated by firm ownership and size. By focusing on a decomposition of labor productivity growth, we obtain results which suggest that structural determinants of the recovery have outweighed cyclical ones. With regard to firm ownership and economic performance, we find that the productive response of state enterprises has been markedly different from that of private firms, with the latter outperforming the former. Finally, our results indicate that size matters, at least among private firms, and our results provide mild evidence of increasing returns.

Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms : A Practitioner’s Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Markets, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling, Volume 2

The analysis of the distributional impact of policy reforms on the well-being or welfare of different stakeholder groups, particularly on the poor and vulnerable, has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries. In recent years this type of work has been labeled as Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) and is increasingly implemented to promote evidence-based policy choices and foster debate on policy reform options.

Analyzing the distributional impact of reforms : a practitioner's guide to trade, monetary and exchange rate policy, utility provision, agricultural markets, land policy, and education

The analysis of the distributional impact of policy reforms on the well-being or welfare of different stakeholder groups, particularly on the poor and vulnerable, has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries. In recent years this type of work has been labeled as Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) and is increasingly implemented to promote evidence-based policy choices and foster debate on policy reform options. While information is available on the general approach, techniques and tools for distributional analysis, each sector displays a series of specific characteristics. Each chapter of this volume provides an overview of the specific issues arising in the analysis of the distributional impacts of policy and institutional reforms in selected sectors. Each chapter then offers guidance on the selection of tools and techniques most adapted to the reforms under scrutiny, and offers examples of applications of these approaches.

Structural Adjustment, Ownership Transformation, and Size in Polish Industry

The authors argue that significant adjustment took place in Polish industry after Polands 1990 reforms. They analyze data on two- and three-digit manufacturing industries, disaggregated by firm ownership and size. By applying a statistical model to labor productivity growth, they try to disentangle structural determinants of the recovery from cyclical determinants. They contend that structural determinants outweigh cyclical ones. They find that the productive response of state enterprises was markedly different from that of private firms--private firms outperformed state enterprises (just as anecdotal evidence suggested). Size also matters, at least among private firms. Generally, there seem to be increasing returns to scale for private firms, except for very large enterprises (many of which were previously state-owned and may need further restructuring). The fact that size does not appear to matter among public enterprises suggests that several of them have not yet adopted optimal technologies and production processes.

How Does the Composition of Public Spending Matter? A Framework Relating Public Spending to Growth, Equity and Poverty-Reduction Objectives

Public spending has effects on growth and distribution which are complex to trace and difficult to quantify. But the composition of public expenditure has become the key instrument by which development agencies seek to promote economic development. In recent years, the development assistance to heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) has been made conditional on increased expenditure on categories that are thought to be “pro-poor”. The recent decision by the G-8 to expand debt relief and to increase aid volumes is likely to increase the pressures to allocate resources to particular sectors and functions with a view to promoting growth or reducing poverty. This paper investigates the conceptual foundations and the empirical basis for the belief that poverty can be reduced through targeted public spending. While it is widely accepted that growth and redistribution are important sources of reduction in absolute poverty, a review of the literature confirms the lack of an appropriate theoretical framework for assessing the impact of public spending on growth as well as poverty. The dangers of policy decisions that are not well-grounded in theory are self-evident and the paper points to the need to address this weakness. Building on a review of recent approaches that begin to address this gap, it proposes a framework that has its foundation in a broadly articulated country development strategy and its economic goals such as growth, equity, and poverty reduction. Combining principles of public economics and endogenous growth theory offers one way to develop appropriate guidance for public expenditure policy. Public economics principles help to clarify the roles of the private and public sectors and to recognize the complementarity of spending, taxation, and regulatory instruments available to affect public policy. With regard to the impact of any given type of public spending, policy recommendations must be tailored to countries and be based on empirical analysis that takes account of the lags and leads in their effects on equity and growth and ultimately on poverty. The paper sketches out such a framework as the first step in what will have to be a longer-term research agenda to provide theoretically and empirically robust and verifiable guidance to public spending policy.