Stela McLachlan

Mendelian randomization of blood lipids for coronary heart disease.

Aims To investigate the causal role of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides in coronary heart disease (CHD) using multiple instrumental variables for Mendelian randomization. Methods and results We developed weighted allele scores based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with established associations with HDL-C, triglycerides, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). For each trait, we constructed two scores. The first was unrestricted, including all independent SNPs associated with the lipid trait identified from a prior meta-analysis (threshold P < 2 × 10−6); and the second a restricted score, filtered to remove any SNPs also associated with either of the other two lipid traits at P ≤ 0.01. Mendelian randomization meta-analyses were conducted in 17 studies including 62,199 participants and 12,099 CHD events. Both the unrestricted and restricted allele scores for LDL-C (42 and 19 SNPs, respectively) associated with CHD. For HDL-C, the unrestricted allele score (48 SNPs) was associated with CHD (OR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.40, 0.70), per 1 mmol/L higher HDL-C, but neither the restricted allele score (19 SNPs; OR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.42, 1.98) nor the unrestricted HDL-C allele score adjusted for triglycerides, LDL-C, or statin use (OR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.44, 1.46) showed a robust association. For triglycerides, the unrestricted allele score (67 SNPs) and the restricted allele score (27 SNPs) were both associated with CHD (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.24, 2.11 and 1.61; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.59, respectively) per 1-log unit increment. However, the unrestricted triglyceride score adjusted for HDL-C, LDL-C, and statin use gave an OR for CHD of 1.01 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.75). Conclusion The genetic findings support a causal effect of triglycerides on CHD risk, but a causal role for HDL-C, though possible, remains less certain.

Severe hypoglycemia and cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

OBJECTIVE People with type 2 diabetes are at increased risk of age-related cognitive decline and dementia. Hypoglycemia is a candidate risk factor, but the direction of association between episodes of severe hypoglycemia and cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes remains uncertain. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study, cognitive function was assessed in 831 adults with type 2 diabetes (aged 60–75 years) at baseline and after 4 years. Scores on seven neuropsychological tests were combined into a standardized general ability factor g. Self-reported history of severe hypoglycemia at baseline (history of hypoglycemia) and at follow-up (incident hypoglycemia) was recorded. RESULTS A history of hypoglycemia was reported by 9.3% of subjects, and 10.2% reported incident hypoglycemia. Incident hypoglycemia was associated with poorer cognitive ability at baseline (age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio for lowest tertile of g 2.04 [95% CI 1.25–3.31], P = 0.004). Both history of hypoglycemia and incident hypoglycemia were also associated with greater cognitive decline during follow-up (mean follow-up g adjusted for age, sex, and baseline g −0.25 vs. 0.03 [P = 0.02] and −0.28 vs. 0.04 [P = 0.01], respectively), including after addition of vascular risk factors and cardiovascular and microvascular disease to the models (−0.23 vs. 0.03 [P = 0.04] and −0.21 vs. 0.05 [P = 0.03], respectively). CONCLUSIONS The relationship between cognitive impairment and hypoglycemia appeared complex, with severe hypoglycemia associated with both poorer initial cognitive ability and accelerated cognitive decline.

Interleukin-6 receptor pathways in abdominal aortic aneurysm

Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting circulating IL-6 in AAA, and new investigations of the association between a common non-synonymous functional variant (Asp358Ala) in the IL-6R gene (IL6R) and AAA, followed the analysis of the variant both in vitro and in vivo. Inflammation may play a role in the development of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). Interleukin-6 (IL-6) signalling through its receptor (IL-6R) is one pathway that could be exploited pharmacologically. We investigated this using a Mendelian randomization approach. Results Up to October 2011, we identified seven studies (869 cases, 851 controls). Meta-analysis demonstrated that AAA cases had higher levels of IL-6 than controls [standardized mean difference (SMD) = 0.46 SD, 95% CI = 0.25–0.66, I2 = 70%, P = 1.1 × 10–5 random effects]. Meta-analysis of five studies (4524 cases/15 710 controls) demonstrated that rs7529229 (which tags the non-synonymous variant Asp358Ala, rs2228145) was associated with a lower risk of AAA, per Ala358 allele odds ratio 0.84, 95% CI: 0.80–0.89, I2 = 0%, P = 2.7 × 10–11). In vitro analyses in lymphoblastoid cell lines demonstrated a reduction in the expression of downstream targets (STAT3, MYC and ICAM1) in response to IL-6 stimulation in Ala358 carriers. Conclusions A Mendelian randomization approach provides robust evidence that signalling via the IL-6R is likely to be a causal pathway in AAA. Drugs that inhibit IL-6R may play a role in AAA management.

Sixty-Five Common Genetic Variants and Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes

We developed a 65 type 2 diabetes (T2D) variant–weighted gene score to examine the impact on T2D risk assessment in a U.K.-based consortium of prospective studies, with subjects initially free from T2D (N = 13,294; 37.3% women; mean age 58.5 [38–99] years). We compared the performance of the gene score with the phenotypically derived Framingham Offspring Study T2D risk model and then the two in combination. Over the median 10 years of follow-up, 804 participants developed T2D. The odds ratio for T2D (top vs. bottom quintiles of gene score) was 2.70 (95% CI 2.12–3.43). With a 10% false-positive rate, the genetic score alone detected 19.9% incident cases, the Framingham risk model 30.7%, and together 37.3%. The respective area under the receiver operator characteristic curves were 0.60 (95% CI 0.58–0.62), 0.75 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.77), and 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.78). The combined risk score net reclassification improvement (NRI) was 8.1% (5.0 to 11.2; P = 3.31 × 10−7). While BMI stratification into tertiles influenced the NRI (BMI ≤24.5 kg/m2, 27.6% [95% CI 17.7–37.5], P = 4.82 × 10−8; 24.5–27.5 kg/m2, 11.6% [95% CI 5.8–17.4], P = 9.88 × 10−5; >27.5 kg/m2, 2.6% [95% CI −1.4 to 6.6], P = 0.20), age categories did not. The addition of the gene score to a phenotypic risk model leads to a potentially clinically important improvement in discrimination of incident T2D.

Plasma urate concentration and risk of coronary heart disease: a Mendelian randomisation analysis

Summary Background Increased circulating plasma urate concentration is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease, but the extent of any causative effect of urate on risk of coronary heart disease is still unclear. In this study, we aimed to clarify any causal role of urate on coronary heart disease risk using Mendelian randomisation analysis. Methods We first did a fixed-effects meta-analysis of the observational association of plasma urate and risk of coronary heart disease. We then used a conventional Mendelian randomisation approach to investigate the causal relevance using a genetic instrument based on 31 urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). To account for potential pleiotropic associations of certain SNPs with risk factors other than urate, we additionally did both a multivariable Mendelian randomisation analysis, in which the genetic associations of SNPs with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides were included as covariates, and an Egger Mendelian randomisation (MR-Egger) analysis to estimate a causal effect accounting for unmeasured pleiotropy. Findings In the meta-analysis of 17 prospective observational studies (166 486 individuals; 9784 coronary heart disease events) a 1 SD higher urate concentration was associated with an odds ratio (OR) for coronary heart disease of 1·07 (95% CI 1·04–1·10). The corresponding OR estimates from the conventional, multivariable adjusted, and Egger Mendelian randomisation analysis (58 studies; 198 598 individuals; 65 877 events) were 1·18 (95% CI 1·08–1·29), 1·10 (1·00–1·22), and 1·05 (0·92–1·20), respectively, per 1 SD increment in plasma urate. Interpretation Conventional and multivariate Mendelian randomisation analysis implicates a causal role for urate in the development of coronary heart disease, but these estimates might be inflated by hidden pleiotropy. Egger Mendelian randomisation analysis, which accounts for pleiotropy but has less statistical power, suggests there might be no causal effect. These results might help investigators to determine the priority of trials of urate lowering for the prevention of coronary heart disease compared with other potential interventions. Funding UK National Institute for Health Research, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.

Adult height, coronary heart disease and stroke: a multi-locus Mendelian randomization meta-analysis

Abstract Background: We investigated causal effect of completed growth, measured by adult height, on coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and cardiovascular traits, using instrumental variable (IV) Mendelian randomization meta-analysis. Methods: We developed an allele score based on 69 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with adult height, identified by the IBCCardioChip, and used it for IV analysis against cardiovascular risk factors and events in 21 studies and 60 028 participants. IV analysis on CHD was supplemented by summary data from 180 height-SNPs from the GIANT consortium and their corresponding CHD estimates derived from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D. Results: IV estimates from IBCCardioChip and GIANT-CARDIoGRAMplusC4D showed that a 6.5-cm increase in height reduced the odds of CHD by 10% [odds ratios 0.90; 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.78 to 1.03 and 0.85 to 0.95, respectively],which agrees with the estimate from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (hazard ratio 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91 to 0.94). IV analysis revealed no association with stroke (odds ratio 0.97; 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.19). IV analysis showed that a 6.5-cm increase in height resulted in lower levels of body mass index (P < 0.001), triglycerides (P < 0.001), non high-density (non-HDL) cholesterol (P < 0.001), C-reactive protein (P = 0.042), and systolic blood pressure (P = 0.064) and higher levels of forced expiratory volume in 1 s and forced vital capacity (P < 0.001 for both). Conclusions: Taller individuals have a lower risk of CHD with potential explanations being that taller people have a better lung function and lower levels of body mass index, cholesterol and blood pressure.

Clinical and Subclinical Macrovascular Disease as Predictors of Cognitive Decline in Older Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study

OBJECTIVE Macrovascular disease may contribute to increased risk of accelerated cognitive decline in patients with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to determine associations of measures of macrovascular disease with cognitive change in a cognitively healthy older population with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Eight hundred thirty-one men and women (aged 60–75 years) attended two waves of the prospective Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (ET2DS). At baseline, clinical and subclinical macrovascular disease was measured, including cardiovascular event history, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), ankle brachial index (ABI), and serum N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Seven neuropsychological tests were administered at baseline and after 4 years; scores were combined to a standardized general ability factor (g). Adjustment of follow-up g for baseline g assessed 4-year cognitive change. Adjustment for vocabulary (estimated premorbid ability) was used to estimate lifetime cognitive change. RESULTS Measures of cognitive decline were significantly associated with stroke, NT-proBNP, ABI, and cIMT, but not with nonstroke vascular events. The association of stroke with increased estimated lifetime cognitive decline (standardized β, −0.12) and of subclinical markers with actual 4-year decline (standardized β, −0.12, 0.12, and −0.15 for NT-proBNP, ABI, and cIMT, respectively) reached the Bonferroni-adjusted level of statistical significance (P < 0.006). Results altered only slightly on adjustment for vascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS Stroke and subclinical markers of cardiac stress and generalized atherosclerosis are associated with cognitive decline in older patients with type 2 diabetes. Further investigation into the potential use of subclinical vascular disease markers in predicting cognitive decline is warranted.

Causal Associations of Adiposity and Body Fat Distribution with Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke Subtypes, and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

Background: The implications of different adiposity measures on cardiovascular disease etiology remain unclear. In this article, we quantify and contrast causal associations of central adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index [WHRadjBMI]) and general adiposity (body mass index [BMI]) with cardiometabolic disease. Methods: Ninety-seven independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms for BMI and 49 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for WHRadjBMI were used to conduct Mendelian randomization analyses in 14 prospective studies supplemented with coronary heart disease (CHD) data from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics; combined total 66 842 cases), stroke from METASTROKE (12 389 ischemic stroke cases), type 2 diabetes mellitus from DIAGRAM (Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis; 34 840 cases), and lipids from GLGC (Global Lipids Genetic Consortium; 213 500 participants) consortia. Primary outcomes were CHD, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and major stroke subtypes; secondary analyses included 18 cardiometabolic traits. Results: Each one standard deviation (SD) higher WHRadjBMI (1 SD≈0.08 U) associated with a 48% excess risk of CHD (odds ratio [OR] for CHD, 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28–1.71), similar to findings for BMI (1 SD≈4.6 kg/m2; OR for CHD, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.22–1.52). Only WHRadjBMI increased risk of ischemic stroke (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03–1.70). For type 2 diabetes mellitus, both measures had large effects: OR, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.38–2.42) and OR, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41–2.78) per 1 SD higher WHRadjBMI and BMI, respectively. Both WHRadjBMI and BMI were associated with higher left ventricular hypertrophy, glycemic traits, interleukin 6, and circulating lipids. WHRadjBMI was also associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (39%; 95% CI, 9%–77% per 1 SD). Conclusions: Both general and central adiposity have causal effects on CHD and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Central adiposity may have a stronger effect on stroke risk. Future estimates of the burden of adiposity on health should include measures of central and general adiposity.

Measuring urinary tubular biomarkers in type 2 diabetes does not add prognostic value beyond established risk factors

Tubulointerstitial disease plays an important role in the pathophysiology of diabetic kidney disease. To determine whether biomarkers of tubular injury could predict renal outcome and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes, we measured urinary levels of kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) and glycoprotein non-metastatic melanoma B (Gpnmb), both normalized to the urinary creatinine, in 978 individuals from the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study. At baseline, 238 patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) below 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 while 147 and 15 patients had microalbuminuria or overt proteinuria, respectively. Both the urine KIM-1 and Gpnmb to creatinine ratios correlated with the urinary albumin to creatinine ratio, the duration of diabetes, and the stringency of glycemic control but not with blood pressure or baseline eGFR. Higher ratios of each marker were associated with a faster decline in kidney function during 4 years of follow-up; however, this was not independent of the urinary albumin to creatinine ratio. Higher KIM-1, but not Gpnmb ratios were associated with an increased risk of mortality, but this association was no longer significant after adjustment for other risk factors, in particular albuminuria. Thus, tubular injury in persons with type 2 diabetes may contribute to the decline in kidney function; however, measuring the urinary concentration of these two tubular biomarkers does not confer additional prognostic information beyond established risk factors.

Identification of the BCAR1-CFDP1-TMEM170A Locus as a Determinant of Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Coronary Artery Disease Risk

Background—Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is a widely accepted marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. To date, large-scale investigations of genetic determinants of cIMT are sparse. Methods and Results—To identify cIMT-associated genes and genetic variants, a discovery analysis using the Illumina 200K CardioMetabochip was conducted in 3430 subjects with detailed ultrasonographic determinations of cIMT from the IMPROVE (Carotid Intima Media Thickness [IMT] and IMT-Progression as Predictors of Vascular Events in a High Risk European Population) study. Segment-specific IMT measurements of common carotid, bifurcation, and internal carotid arteries, and composite IMT variables considering the whole carotid tree (IMTmean, IMTmax, and IMTmean-max), were analyzed. A replication stage investigating 42 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for association with common carotid IMT was undertaken in 5 independent European cohorts (total n=11 590). A locus on chromosome 16 (lead single-nucleotide polymorphism rs4888378, intronic in CFDP1) was associated with cIMT at significance levels passing multiple testing correction at both stages (array-wide significant discovery P=6.75×10−7 for IMTmax; replication P=7.24×10−6 for common cIMT; adjustments for sex, age, and population substructure where applicable; minor allele frequency 0.43 and 0.41, respectively). The protective minor allele was associated with lower carotid plaque score in a replication cohort (P=0.04, n=2120) and lower coronary artery disease risk in 2 case-control studies of subjects with European ancestry (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] 0.83 [0.77–0.90], P=6.53×10−6, n=13 591; and 0.95 [0.92–0.98], P=1.83×10−4, n=82 297, respectively). Queries of human biobank data sets revealed associations of rs4888378 with nearby gene expression in vascular tissues (n=126–138). Conclusions—This study identified rs4888378 in the BCAR1-CFDP1-TMEM170A locus as a novel genetic determinant of cIMT and coronary artery disease risk in individuals of European descent.