Stephan Dabbert

Integrating Agri-Environmental Programs into Regional Production Models: An Extension of Positive Mathematical Programming

Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) has become a popular method for regional production models. The standard approach estimates cost (or production) functions for each land-use activity separately from each other. This means that the same crop grown under two technologies is treated as if it were two separate crops, which may lead to unsatisfying results, for example, if agri-environmental programs are modeled. We present an extended version of PMP that leads to more plausible results than the standard version in such cases. The extended method is applicable to other problems where differences in the elasticity of substitution between activities are important.

Integrated Modeling of Global Change Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater Resources

The GLOWA-Danube research cooperation has developed the integrated simulation system DANUBIA to simulate water-related influences of global change in different spatial and temporal contexts. DANUBIA is a modular system comprised of 17 dynamically-coupled, process-based model components and a framework which controls the interaction of these components with respect to space and time. This article describes approaches and capabilities of DANUBIA with regard to the simulation of global change effects on agriculture and groundwater. To the agriculture-groundwater-relation, the direct effects that climate change has on the water balance are just as important as decisions made by land managers about land use and farming intensity. This article provides firstly a brief review of the research efforts which have been undertaken in the field of integrated modeling of agriculture and groundwater under conditions of global change. Then, the DANUBIA simulation framework and the associated DeepActor-framework for simulation of decision-making by agricultural actors are presented together with the model components which are most relevant to the interactions between agriculture and groundwater. The approach for developing combination climate and socio-economic scenarios is explained. Exemplary scenario results are shown for the Upper Danube Catchment in Southern Germany. Finally issues related to integrated simulation of global change effects on agriculture and groundwater are discussed.

An economic approach for a better understanding of conflicts between farmers and nature conservationists--an application of the decision support system MODAM to the Lower Odra Valley National Park

Abstract The establishment of expansive nature conservation areas are among the most important measures for maintaining bio-diversity. Recently, these areas have increasingly been established in agrarian regions, leading to conflicts between farmers and nature conservationists. In the context of the German national park, Lower Odra Valley, an economic approach for achieving a comprehensive understanding of the divergent objectives of participants is introduced. The calculations were made with support of the modelling system MODAM (Multiple Objective Decision Support Tool for Agroecosystem Management), previously introduced in detail. Several scenarios of various national park concepts were analysed. A nature conservationist-defined scenario resulted in an income loss 2.5 times greater than the compensation payment amount available. While a farmer-favoured scenario resulted in a income loss considerably less than the subsidy limit, the resulting fragmentation of the total reserve area is unacceptable from the ecological perspective. It is shown that a step-by-step approach by both parties is required to determine a joint solution. Another interesting perspective is presented in a discussion of the political dimension of the conflict. The results of the study show that the opportunity costs of the establishment of total reserve areas largely depend on the availability of subsidy payments for agricultural and ecological programmes offered in the polder region of the national park. It is likely that much of the conflict concerns different governmental objectives. While ecological programmes are dominated by allocative objectives, a number of agricultural programmes aim for a redistribution of income between different groups in society. One of the most valuable results of the study in the Lower Odra region is the realisation of the important influence that unrecognised conflicts at the political level may have on local conflicts. It can be shown that the establishment of nature conservation areas does not automatically increase the demand for public funds, but requires a skilful reallocation of the existing funds for agro-ecological programmes. Ideally this could lead to win-win solutions for all the stakeholders involved.

Organic farming policy in the European Union

Organic farming is recognised in the European Union as one possible model to improve the sustainability of agriculture. During the 1990s the sector grew rapidly (to 3% of agricultural area in 2000), caused in part by policy support measures in member states and the EU. The paper summarises the development of the organic sector, discusses reasons for policy support, and reviews the main policy measures at EU and country level in three areas: legislation defining organic production, direct payments and other measures. It concludes that in future the integration of policy measures within countries and at EU level should be improved, in particular through the development of national and European action plans for organic farming.

Agroforestry and land-use change in industrialized nations : a case study from northeastern Germany

The paper describes the changes in agricultural structure and land use in northeastern Germany that were triggered by reunification. It projects possible effects of the recent EU-agricultural policy reform with the help of a simulation model. It is concluded that a considerable part of land (especially permanent grassland) might not have a productive use in the mediumrun. Agroforestry systems relevant for Central Europe are discussed and problems identified. Agroforestry systems are evaluated as one land-use option among others (afforestation, natural succession, ‘new’ agricultural systems) and their possible impact is assessed.

Integrating GIS-based field data and farm modeling in a watershed to assess the cost of erosion control measures: An example from southwest Germany

Policy measures regulating agricultural production are becoming increasingly important in the control of erosion and water runoff. In order to enable planners and other authorities to implement such measures efficiently, detailed information regarding the relevant costs and benefits is necessary. However, economic models to date have tended to utilize a spatial resolution that is insufficient to reveal the effects of such measures on a micro scale. Farming practices, like cross-slope cultivation, filter strips, or field divisions, exert varying impacts on small spatial structures. The benefits and costs of such measures depend to a large degree on local conditions, such as field size and slope. Environmental models as well as economic modeling must take these factors into account. This paper presents a novel approach called CULTIVASIM that directly incorporates field-level topographic and geometric data into a farm economic model. This allows researchers to gain insight into the cost structure of these tasks on a field level as well as a farm level when considering whole-farm adaptation possibilities. Results show that while filter strips lead to relatively uniform costs in relation to area, the costs of field division and cross-slope cultivation vary greatly depending on the field geometry. This information should be included when planning control measures and designing compensation schemes. This new model approach can be used to calculate the economic costs and benefits of using precision conservation practices across the landscape.

Policies Supporting Organic Food and Farming in the EU: Assessment and Development by Stakeholders in 11 European Countries

There is no single ‘best way’ of policy development. Bottom-up approaches to policy design and a broad debate among stakeholders facilitate policy learning and innovation. A novel approach of a bottom-up policy design process involving stakeholders is introduced. The first results obtained by implementing this methodology are presented. The outcomes of a large international effort for a development of policies for organic food and farming, which took place in Maj 2004 in Europe, are analyzed: the synthesized results from 11 European countries (AT, CH, CZ, DE, DK, EE, GB, HU, IT, PL, SI) on the current situation of policies related to the organic food market in Europe are highlighted and policy recommendations for the development of the organic food and farming sector are formulated. Specifically, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of policies related to the organic food market are identified and policy instruments used to address these aspects are developed.

Toward more efficient model development for farming systems research An integrative review

Many simulation models are black boxes that no one but their creator can use.This does not allow replicability of results.Replicability of results is a fundamental of the scientific method.It depends heavily on due diligence during the software configuration process.This requires more practical, technical IT knowledge. Bio-economic simulation models are widely established in Farming Systems Research; they are used to investigate complex real-world phenomena in agricultural production. Such simulation models are largely designed and created by scientists from different disciplines who are not modeling experts. Thus, IT knowledge is required, but this area of expertise falls outside of most agricultural researchers background. IT knowledge is essential for the maintenance, development, and applicability of simulation models. Often, bio-economic simulation models require a fair amount of time to ensure basic functionality before specific research questions can be answered. Researchers who contribute to the creation of a bio-economic simulation model often spend the majority of their time ensuring basic model functionality. This integrative literature review provides a few basic rules that are intended to ensure more efficient model development. There is an increased need for support from IT personnel who are not researchers in their own field but who can increase the quality of such models and their reusability in different contexts.

Rechtliche und agrarumweltpolitische Maßnahmen zur Erreichung unterschiedlicher Stufen der Nachhaltigkeit der Landbewirtschaftung

Als Grundlage fur eine Bewertung rechtlicher und agrarumweltpolitischer Instrumente zur Erreichung unterschiedlicher Stufen der Nachhaltigkeit der Landbewirtschaftung diskutiert der Beitrag den Begriff Nachhaltigkeit. Nachhaltigkeit wird hier definiert als die Quantitat und Qualitat naturlicher Ressourcen, die die heutige Generation zukunftigen Generationen hinterlast. Der gesellschaftlich angemessene Grad der Nachhaltigkeit kann nur auf der Grundlage eines gesellschaftlichen Diskurses festgelegt werden. Dabei sind ressourcenrelevante Aspekte (Umweltstandards im Hinblick auf Trinkwasserschutz, vorsorgenden Gewasserschutz, Schutz der Atmosphare/Klimaschutz, Artenschutz und Biotopschutz, Schonung nicht erneuerbarer Energie- und Rohstoffvorrate) und kostenrelevante Aspekte (Marktordnungskosten, Kosten fur Ausgleichsmasnahmen, Administration- und Kontrollkosten, Einkommen der Landwirte und die Kosten fur die Verbraucher) simultan zu berucksichtigen, um abwagen zu konnen, ob die mit einer hoheren Nachhaltigkeit verbundenen Kosten sowie etwaige Verteilungswirkungen gesellschaftlich akzeptabel erscheinen. Eine vollstandige quantitative Abbildung des Entscheidungsproblems ist jedoch angesichts der vielfach unbekannten Wirkungszusammenhange nicht moglich. Daher fuhrt auch die Verwendung von quantitativen Modellen fur Teilanalysen des Gesamtproblems nur zu qualitativen Schlusfolgerungen.

Modeling perceptions of climatic risk in crop production

In agricultural production, land-use decisions are components of economic planning that result in the strategic allocation of fields. Climate variability represents an uncertainty factor in crop production. Considering yield impact, climatic influence is perceived during and evaluated at the end of crop production cycles. In practice, this information is then incorporated into planning for the upcoming season. This process contributes to attitudes toward climate-induced risk in crop production. In the literature, however, the subjective valuation of risk is modeled as a risk attitude toward variations in (monetary) outcomes. Consequently, climatic influence may be obscured by political and market influences so that risk perceptions during the production process are neglected. We present a utility concept that allows the inclusion of annual risk scores based on mid-season risk perceptions that are incorporated into field-planning decisions. This approach is exemplified and implemented for winter wheat production in the Kraichgau, a region in Southwest Germany, using the integrated bio-economic simulation model FarmActor and empirical data from the region. Survey results indicate that a profitability threshold for this crop, the level of “still-good yield” (sgy), is 69 dt ha-1 (regional mean Kraichgau sample) for a given season. This threshold governs the monitoring process and risk estimators. We tested the modeled estimators against simulation results using ten projected future weather time series for winter wheat production. The mid-season estimators generally proved to be effective. This approach can be used to improve the modeling of planning decisions by providing a more comprehensive evaluation of field-crop response to climatic changes from an economic risk point of view. The methodology further provides economic insight in an agrometeorological context where prices for crops or inputs are lacking, but farmer attitudes toward risk should still be included in the analysis.