Stephanie Martin

Resilience of Athabascan subsistence systems to interior Alaska's changing climate 1

Subsistence harvesting and wild food production by Athabascan peoples is part of an integrated social-ecologi- cal system of interior Alaska. We describe effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal eco- system of interior Alaska and relate changes in ecosystem services to Athabascan subsistence. We focus primarily on moose, a keystone terrestrial subsistence resource of villages in that region. Although recent climate change has affected the boreal forest, moose, and Athabascan moose harvesting, a high dependence by village households on moose persists. An historical account of 20th century socioeconomic changes demonstrates that the vulnerability of Athabascan subsistence systems to climatic change has in some respects increased while at the same time has improved aspects of village resil- ience. In the face of future climate and socioeconomic changes, communities have limited but potentially effective mitiga- tion and adaptation opportunities. The extent to which residents can realize those opportunities depends on the responsiveness of formal and informal institutions to local needs. For example, increases in Alaskas urban population coupled with climate-induced habitat shifts may increase hunting conflicts in low-moose years. This problem could be mi- tigated through adaptive co-management strategies that project future moose densities and redirect urban hunters to areas of lower conflict. Resume´ : La recolte de subsistance et la production de nourriture sauvage par le peuple athapascan fait partie dun sys- teme socio-ecologique integrede linterieur de lAlaska. Nous decrivons les effets des tendances recentes et des projec- tions de changements climatiques a venir sur lecosysteme boreal de linterieur de lAlaska et nous relions les changements dans les services de lecosysteme ala subsistance des athapascans. Nous mettons principalement laccent sur lorignal, une ressource terrestre de subsistance cledes villages de cette region. Bien que les changements climatiques re ´- cents aient affectela foret boreale, lorignal et la recolte dorignaux par les athapascans, les menages des villages conti- nuent adependre fortement de lorignal. Un compte rendu historique des changements socioeconomiques survenus au 20 e siecle demontre que la vulnerabilitedes systemes de subsistances des athapascans aux changements climatiques a acer- tains egards augmentealors que des aspects de la resilience des villages se sont ameliores durant la meme periode. Face aux changements climatiques et socioeconomiques a venir, les communautes ont des possibilites dadaptation et datte ´- nuation limitees mais potentiellement efficaces. Dans quelle mesure les residants peuvent concretiser ces possibilitesd e´- pend de la capacitede reaction des institutions formelles et informelles aux besoins locaux. Par exemples, des augmentations de la population urbaine de lAlaska couplees a des changements dhabitat induits par le climat peuvent augmenter les conflits de chasse les annees durant lesquelles lorignal est peu abondant. On pourrait attenuer ce probleme par des strategies de cogestion adaptative qui predisent la densitedes orignaux et redirigent les chasseurs urbains vers des zones moins conflictuelles. (Traduit par la Redaction)

Modeling sustainability of Arctic communities: an interdisciplinary collaboration of researchers and local knowledge holders.

How will climate change affect the sustainability of Arctic villages over the next 40 years? This question motivated a collaboration of 23 researchers and four Arctic communities (Old Crow, Yukon Territory, Canada; Aklavik, Northwest Territories, Canada; Fort McPherson, Northwest Territories, Canada; and Arctic Village, Alaska, USA) in or near the range of the Porcupine Caribou Herd. We drew on existing research and local knowledge to examine potential effects of climate change, petroleum development, tourism, and government spending cutbacks on the sustainability of four Arctic villages. We used data across eight disciplines to develop an Arctic Community Synthesis Model and a Web-based, interactive Possible Futures Model. Results suggested that climate warming will increase vegetation biomass within the herd’s summer range. However, despite forage increasing, the herd was projected as likely to decline with a warming climate because of increased insect harassment in the summer and potentially greater winter snow depths. There was a strong negative correlation between hypothetical, development-induced displacement of cows and calves from utilized calving grounds and calf survival during June. The results suggested that climate warming coupled with petroleum development would cause a decline in caribou harvest by local communities. Because the Synthesis Model inherits uncertainties associated with each component model, sensitivity analysis is required. Scientists and stakeholders agreed that (1) although simulation models are incomplete abstractions of the real world, they helped bring scientific and community knowledge together, and (2) relationships established across disciplines and between scientists and communities were a valuable outcome of the study. Additional project materials, including the Web-based Possible Futures Model, are available at http://www.taiga.net/sustain.

Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA)

Major findings of the Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA) are: (1) A combination of traditional activities and cash employment is the prevailing lifestyle of Arctic indigenous peoples; (2) family ties, social support of each other, and traditional activities have a lot to do with why indigenous people choose to remain in Arctic communities; (3) well-being is closely related to job opportunities, locally available fish and game, and a sense of local control. Well-being and depression (and related problems like suicide) are flip sides of the same coin. Improving well-being may reduce social problems; and, (4) health conditions vary widely in the Arctic: three-in-four Greenlandic Inuit self-rate their health as at least very good compared with one-in-two Canadian and Alaska Inuit and one-in-five Chukotka indigenous people. Findings are based on 7,200 interviews in a probability sample of Inupiat settlement regions of Alaska, the four Inuit settlement regions of Canada, all of Greenland, and the Anadyrskij, Anadyr, Shmidtovs, Beringovskij, Chukotskij, Iujl’tinskij, Bilibinskij, Chaunskij, Providenskij, Uel’Kal’ districts of Chukotka. Indigenous people and researchers from Greenland, Russia, Canada, the United States, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland collaborated on all phases of the study.

The effects of female out-migration on Alaska villages

Abstract This research explores the consequences of out-migration for sending communities in rural Alaska. In particular, it describes the relationship between female out-migration and community viability, by comparing the age–sex structures of Alaska Native villages that are growing with villages in decline. The paper discusses out-migration and its connection to school closure. It provides a detailed description of out-migration from villages in northern Alaska, using data from several household surveys to better understand migrants. Villages that are decreasing in size show a loss of adult women over time. Many leave and few return or replaced by in-migrants. Also notable is the loss of children from villages in decline. In some very small places the departure of women and children leads to school closure and eventually the village disappears.

Conducting rigorous research with subgroups of at-risk youth: lessons learned from a teen pregnancy prevention project in Alaska

In 2010, Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS) received federal funding to test an evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention program. The grant required a major modification to an existing program and a randomized control trial (RCT) to test its effectiveness. As the major modifications, Alaska used peer educators instead of adults to deliver the program to youth aged 14–19 instead of the original curriculum intended age range of 12–14. Cultural and approach adaptations were included as well. After 4 years of implementation and data collection, the sample was too small to provide statistically significant results. The lack of findings gave no information about the modification, nor any explanation of how the curriculum was received, or reasons for the small sample. This paper reports on a case study follow-up to the RCT to better understand outcome and implementation results. For this study, researchers reviewed project documents and interviewed peer educators, state and local staff, and evaluators. Three themes emerged from the data: (a) the professional growth of peer educators and development of peer education, (b) difficulties resulting from curriculum content, especially for subpopulations of sexually active youth, youth identified as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex and/or asexual, pregnant, and parenting youth and (c) the appropriateness of an RCT with subpopulations of at-risk youth. Three recommendations emerged from the case study. First, including as many stakeholders as possible in the program and evaluation design phases is essential, and must be supported by appropriate funding streams and training. Second, there must be recognition of the multiple small subpopulations found in Alaska when adapting programs designed for a larger and more homogeneous population. Third, RCTs may not be appropriate for all population subgroups.In 2010, Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS) received federal funding to test an evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention program. The grant required a major modification to an existing program and a randomized control trial (RCT) to test its effectiveness. As the major modifications, Alaska used peer educators instead of adults to deliver the program to youth aged 14-19 instead of the original curriculum intended age range of 12-14. Cultural and approach adaptations were included as well. After 4 years of implementation and data collection, the sample was too small to provide statistically significant results. The lack of findings gave no information about the modification, nor any explanation of how the curriculum was received, or reasons for the small sample. This paper reports on a case study follow-up to the RCT to better understand outcome and implementation results. For this study, researchers reviewed project documents and interviewed peer educators, state and local staff, and evaluators. Three themes emerged from the data: (a) the professional growth of peer educators and development of peer education, (b) difficulties resulting from curriculum content, especially for subpopulations of sexually active youth, youth identified as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex and/or asexual, pregnant, and parenting youth and (c) the appropriateness of an RCT with subpopulations of at-risk youth. Three recommendations emerged from the case study. First, including as many stakeholders as possible in the program and evaluation design phases is essential, and must be supported by appropriate funding streams and training. Second, there must be recognition of the multiple small subpopulations found in Alaska when adapting programs designed for a larger and more homogeneous population. Third, RCTs may not be appropriate for all population subgroups.In 2010, Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS) received federal funding to test an evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention program. The grant required a major modification to an existing program and a randomized control trial (RCT) to test its effectiveness. As the major modifications, Alaska used peer educators instead of adults to deliver the program to youth aged 14-19 instead of the original curriculum intended age range of 12-14. Cultural and approach adaptations were included as well. After 4 years of implementation and data collection, the sample was too small to provide statistically significant results. The lack of findings gave no information about the modification, nor any explanation of how the curriculum was received, or reasons for the small sample. This paper reports on a case study follow-up to the RCT to better understand outcome and implementation results. For this study, researchers reviewed project documents and interviewed peer educators, state and local staff, and evaluators. Three themes emerged from the data: (a) the professional growth of peer educators and development of peer education, (b) difficulties resulting from curriculum content, especially for subpopulations of sexually active youth, youth identified as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex and/or asexual, pregnant, and parenting youth and (c) the appropriateness of an RCT with subpopulations of at-risk youth. Three recommendations emerged from the case study. First, including as many stakeholders as possible in the program and evaluation design phases is essential, and must be supported by appropriate funding streams and training. Second, there must be recognition of the multiple small subpopulations found in Alaska when adapting programs designed for a larger and more homogeneous population. Third, RCTs may not be appropriate for all population subgroups.