Stephanie von Klot

Development of Land Use Regression Models for PM2.5, PM2.5 Absorbance, PM10 and PMcoarse in 20 European Study Areas; Results of the ESCAPE Project

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used increasingly for modeling small-scale spatial variation in air pollution concentrations and estimating individual exposure for participants of cohort studies. Within the ESCAPE project, concentrations of PM(2.5), PM(2.5) absorbance, PM(10), and PM(coarse) were measured in 20 European study areas at 20 sites per area. GIS-derived predictor variables (e.g., traffic intensity, population, and land-use) were evaluated to model spatial variation of annual average concentrations for each study area. The median model explained variance (R(2)) was 71% for PM(2.5) (range across study areas 35-94%). Model R(2) was higher for PM(2.5) absorbance (median 89%, range 56-97%) and lower for PM(coarse) (median 68%, range 32- 81%). Models included between two and five predictor variables, with various traffic indicators as the most common predictors. Lower R(2) was related to small concentration variability or limited availability of predictor variables, especially traffic intensity. Cross validation R(2) results were on average 8-11% lower than model R(2). Careful selection of monitoring sites, examination of influential observations and skewed variable distributions were essential for developing stable LUR models. The final LUR models are used to estimate air pollution concentrations at the home addresses of participants in the health studies involved in ESCAPE.

Ambient Air Pollution Is Associated With Increased Risk of Hospital Cardiac Readmissions of Myocardial Infarction Survivors in Five European Cities

Background— Ambient air pollution has been associated with increases in acute morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to evaluate the short-term effects of urban air pollution on cardiac hospital readmissions in survivors of myocardial infarction, a potentially susceptible subpopulation. Methods and Results— In this European multicenter cohort study, 22 006 survivors of a first myocardial infarction were recruited in Augsburg, Germany; Barcelona, Spain; Helsinki, Finland; Rome, Italy; and Stockholm, Sweden, from 1992 to 2000. Hospital readmissions were recorded in 1992 to 2001. Ambient nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, ozone, and mass of particles <10 &mgr;m (PM10) were measured. Particle number concentrations were estimated as a proxy for ultrafine particles. Short-term effects of air pollution on hospital readmissions for myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and cardiac causes (myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, dysrhythmia, or heart failure) were studied in city-specific Poisson regression analyses with subsequent pooling. During follow-up, 6655 cardiac readmissions were observed. Cardiac readmissions increased in association with same-day concentrations of PM10 (rate ratio [RR] 1.021, 95% CI 1.004 to 1.039) per 10 &mgr;g/m3) and estimated particle number concentrations (RR 1.026 [95% CI 1.005 to 1.048] per 10 000 particles/cm3). Effects of similar strength were observed for carbon monoxide (RR 1.014 [95% CI 1.001 to 1.026] per 200 &mgr;g/m3 [0.172 ppm]), nitrogen dioxide (RR 1.032 [95% CI 1.013 to 1.051] per 8 &mgr;g/m3 [4.16 ppb]), and ozone (RR 1.026 [95% CI 1.001 to 1.051] per 15 &mgr;g/m3 [7.5 ppb]). Pooled effect estimates for angina pectoris and myocardial infarction readmissions were comparable. Conclusions— The results suggest that ambient air pollution is associated with increased risk of hospital cardiac readmissions of myocardial infarction survivors in 5 European cities.

Air pollution and inflammation (interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, fibrinogen) in myocardial infarction survivors.

Background Numerous studies have found that ambient air pollution has been associated with cardiovascular disease exacerbation. Objectives Given previous findings, we hypothesized that particulate air pollution might induce systemic inflammation in myocardial infarction (MI) survivors, contributing to an increased vulnerability to elevated concentrations of ambient particles. Methods A prospective longitudinal study of 1,003 MI survivors was performed in six European cities between May 2003 and July 2004. We compared repeated measurements of interleukin 6 (IL-6), fibrinogen, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with concurrent levels of air pollution. We collected hourly data on particle number concentrations (PNC), mass concentrations of particulate matter (PM) < 10 μm (PM10) and < 2.5 μm (PM2.5), gaseous pollutants, and meteorologic data at central monitoring sites in each city. City-specific confounder models were built for each blood marker separately, adjusting for meteorology and time-varying and time-invariant covariates. Data were analyzed with mixed-effects models. Results Pooled results show an increase in IL-6 when concentrations of PNC were elevated 12–17 hr before blood withdrawal [percent change of geometric mean, 2.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0–4.6]. Five day cumulative exposure to PM10 was associated with increased fibrinogen concentrations (percent change of arithmetic mean, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.1–1.1). Results remained stable for smokers, diabetics, and patients with heart failure. No consistent associations were found for CRP. Conclusions Results indicate an immediate response to PNC on the IL-6 level, possibly leading to the production of acute-phase proteins, as seen in increased fibrinogen levels. This might provide a link between air pollution and adverse cardiac events.

Air Temperature and the Occurrence of Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany

Background— Air temperature changes have been associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The objective of this study was to examine in detail the registry-based myocardial infarction (MI) rates and coronary deaths in relation to air temperature in the area of Augsburg, Germany. Methods and Results— Between 1995 and 2004, the Monitoring Trends and Determinants on Cardiovascular Diseases/Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (MONICA/KORA) registry recorded 9801 cases of MI and coronary deaths. Over the same period, meteorological parameters and air pollutant concentrations were measured in the study region. Poisson regression analyses adjusting for time trend, relative humidity, season, and calendar effects were used to estimate immediate, delayed, and cumulative temperature effects on the occurrence of MIs. The daily rates of total MI, nonfatal and fatal events, and incident and recurrent events were analyzed. For the total MI cases, a 10°C decrease in 5-day average temperature was associated with a relative risk of 1.10 (95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.15). The effect of temperature on the occurrence of nonfatal events showed a delayed pattern, whereas the association with fatal MI was more immediate. No association could be observed for recurrent events. The effects of temperature decreases on total MI cases were more pronounced in years with higher average temperatures and were visible in summer. Conclusions— We observed an inverse relationship between temperature and MI occurrence not only during winter but also during summer. Thus, our results suggest not a pure “cold effect” but an influence of unusual temperature decreases.

Aerosol Particle Number Concentration Measurements in Five European Cities Using TSI-3022 Condensation Particle Counter over a Three-Year Period during Health Effects of Air Pollution on Susceptible Subpopulations

Abstract In this study, long-term aerosol particle total number concentration measurements in five metropolitan areas across Europe are presented. The measurements have been carried out in Augsburg, Barcelona, Helsinki, Rome, and Stockholm using the same instrument, a condensation particle counter (TSI model 3022). The results show that in all of the studied cities, the winter concentrations are higher than the summer concentrations. In Helsinki and in Stockholm, winter concentrations are higher by a factor of two and in Augsburg almost by a factor of three compared with summer months. The winter maximum of the monthly average concentrations in these cities is between 10,000 cm-3 and 20,000 cm-3, whereas the summer min is ˜;5000–6000 cm-3. In Rome and in Barcelona, the winters are more polluted compared with summers by as much as a factor of 4–10. The winter maximum in both Rome and Barcelona is close to 100,000 cm-3, whereas the summer minimum is >10,000 cm-3. During the weekdays the maximum of the hourly average concentrations in all of the cities is detected during the morning hours between 7 and 10 a.m. The evening maxima were present in Barcelona, Rome, and Augsburg, but these were not as pronounced as the morning ones. The daily maxima in Helsinki and Stockholm are close or even lower than the daily minima in the more polluted cities. The concentrations between these two groups of cities are different with a factor of about five during the whole day. The study pointed out the influence of the selection of the measurement site and the configuration of the sampling line on the observed concentrations.

Temperature, Myocardial Infarction, and Mortality: Effect Modification by Individual and Area-Level Characteristics

Background: Although several studies have examined associations between temperature and cardiovascular-disease-related mortality, fewer have investigated the association between temperature and the development of acute myocardial infarction (MI). Moreover, little is known about who is most susceptible to the effects of temperature. Methods: We analyzed data from the Worcester Heart Attack Study, a community-wide investigation of acute MI in residents of the Worcester (MA) metropolitan area. We used a case-crossover approach to examine the association of apparent temperature with acute MI occurrence and with all-cause in-hospital and postdischarge mortality. We examined effect modification by sociodemographic characteristics, medical history, clinical complications, and physical environment. Results: A decrease in an interquartile range in apparent temperature was associated with an increased risk of acute MI on the same day (hazard ratio = 1.15 [95% confidence interval = 1.01–1.31]). Extreme cold during the 2 days prior was associated with an increased risk of acute MI (1.36 [1.07–1.74]). Extreme heat during the 2 days prior was also associated with an increased risk of mortality (1.44 [1.06–1.96]). Persons living in areas with greater poverty were more susceptible to heat. Conclusions: Exposure to cold increased the risk of acute MI, and exposure to heat increased the risk of dying after an acute MI. Local area vulnerability should be accounted for as cities prepare to adapt to weather fluctuations as a result of climate change.

Intensity of physical exertion and triggering of myocardial infarction: a case-crossover study

AIMS Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) can be precipitated or triggered by discrete transient exposures including physical exertion. We evaluated whether the risk of having an AMI triggered by physical exertion exhibits an exposure-response relationship, and whether it varies by ambient temperature or by taking place indoors or outdoors. METHODS AND RESULTS We conducted a case-crossover study within the Myocardial Infarction Registry in Augsburg, Germany in 1999-2003. One thousand three hundred and one patients reported levels of activity and time spent outdoors on the day of AMI and three preceding days in an interview. The case-crossover analyses showed an association of physical exertion with AMI symptom onset within 2 h, which was strong for strenuous exertion (METs >or= 6) [relative risk (RR) 5.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.6-9.0), and still significant for moderate exertion (METs = 5) (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.1) compared to very light or no exertion. Strenuous exertion outside was associated with a four-fold larger RR of AMI symptom onset than exertion performed indoors, which was not explained by temperature. CONCLUSION This study confirms previous results and shows a graded exposure-response relationship between physical exertion intensity and triggering of AMI onset. These findings may have implications for behavioural guidance of people at risk of AMI.

Associations between air temperature and cardio-respiratory mortality in the urban area of Beijing, China: a time-series analysis

BackgroundAssociations between air temperature and mortality have been consistently observed in Europe and the United States; however, there is a lack of studies for Asian countries. Our study investigated the association between air temperature and cardio-respiratory mortality in the urban area of Beijing, China.MethodsDeath counts for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases for adult residents (≥15 years), meteorological parameters and concentrations of particulate air pollution were obtained from January 2003 to August 2005. The effects of two-day and 15-day average temperatures were estimated by Poisson regression models, controlling for time trend, relative humidity and other confounders if necessary. Effects were explored for warm (April to September) and cold periods (October to March) separately. The lagged effects of daily temperature were investigated by polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models.ResultsWe observed a J-shaped exposure-response function only for 15-day average temperature and respiratory mortality in the warm period, with 21.3°C as the threshold temperature. All other exposure-response functions could be considered as linear. In the warm period, a 5°C increase of two-day average temperature was associated with a RR of 1.098 (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.057-1.140) for cardiovascular and 1.134 (95%CI: 1.050-1.224) for respiratory mortality; a 5°C decrease of 15-day average temperature was associated with a RR of 1.040 (95%CI: 0.990-1.093) for cardiovascular mortality. In the cold period, a 5°C increase of two-day average temperature was associated with a RR of 1.149 (95%CI: 1.078-1.224) for respiratory mortality; a 5°C decrease of 15-day average temperature was associated with a RR of 1.057 (95%CI: 1.022-1.094) for cardiovascular mortality. The effects remained robust after considering particles as additional confounders.ConclusionsBoth increases and decreases in air temperature are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. The effects of heat were immediate while the ones of cold became predominant with longer time lags. Increases in air temperature are also associated with an immediate increased risk of respiratory mortality.

Investigating Air Pollution and Atherosclerosis in Humans: Concepts and Outlook

Although ambient particulate matter contributes to atherosclerosis in animal models, its role in atherogenesis in humans needs to be established. This article discusses concepts, study design, and choice of health outcomes to efficiently investigate the atherogenic role of ambient air pollution, with an emphasis on early preclinical biomarkers of atherosclerosis that are unaffected by short-term exposure to air pollution (eg, carotid intima-media thickness [CIMT] and functional performance of the vessel). Air pollution studies using these end points are summarized. The CIMT is currently the most frequently used outcome in this field (6 studies). The continuous nature of CIMT, the lack of short-term variation, its relationship to atherosclerotic changes in the artery wall, its predictive value for coronary heart disease, and the noninvasiveness of the assessment make it a useful candidate for cross-sectional and longitudinal studies investigating the role of air pollution in atherogenesis.

Ambient air pollution and daily mortality among survivors of myocardial infarction

Background: Certain subgroups in the general population, such as persons with existing cardiovascular or respiratory disease, may be more likely to experience adverse health effects from air pollution. Methods: In this European multicenter study, 25,006 myocardial infarction (MI) survivors in 5 cities were recruited from 1992 to 2002 via registers, and daily mortality was followed for 6 to 12 years in relation to ambient particulate and gaseous air pollution exposure. Daily air pollution levels were obtained from central monitor sites, and particle number concentrations were measured in 2001 and estimated retrospectively based on measured pollutants and meteorology. City-specific effect estimates from time-series analyses with Poisson regression were pooled over all 5 cities. Results: Particle number concentrations and PM10 averaged over 2 days (lag 0–1) were associated with increased total nontrauma mortality for patients of age 35 to 74 (5.6% [95% confidence interval, 2.8%–8.5%] per 10,000/cm3 and 5.1% [1.6%–9.3%] per 10 &mgr;g/m3, respectively). For longer averaging times (5 and 15 days), carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide were also associated with mortality. There were no clear associations with ozone or sulfur dioxide. Conclusion: Exposure to traffic-related air pollution was associated with daily mortality in MI survivors. Point estimates suggest a stronger effect of air pollution in MI survivors than among the general population.