Stephen C. Upton

Investigating the dynamics of competition: coevolving red and blue simulation parameters

In this paper we explore the concept of two-sided competitive coevolution as a mechanism to explore the dynamics of competition in a simulation context. One potential value of doing so is the ability to rapidly explore simultaneous adaptations to two sides, presumably Blue and Red, in order to find solutions that perform well and are relatively robust even in the face of an adaptive adversary

Improving U.S. Navy Campaign Analyses with Big Data

Decisions and investments made today determine the assets and capabilities of the U.S. Navy for decades to come. The nation has many options about how best to equip, organize, supply, maintain, train, and employ our naval forces. These decisions involve large sums of money and impact our national security. Navy leadership uses simulation-based campaign analysis to measure risk for these investment options. Campaign simulations, such as the Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM), are complex models that generate enormous amounts of data. Finding causal threads and consistent trends within campaign analysis is inherently a big data problem. We outline the business and technical approach used to quantify the various investment risks for senior decision makers. Specifically, we present the managerial approach and controls used to generate studies that withstand scrutiny and maintain a strict study timeline. We then describe STORMMiner, a suite of automated postprocessing tools developed to suppor...