Stephen Case

Understanding youth offending: Risk factor research, policy and practice

Introduction: Risk Factor Research 1. Examining the Unresolved Methodological Paradoxes of Risk Factor Research 2. The Origins and Development of Risk Factor Research 3. Longitudinal Risk Factor Research in England and Wales - Achievements, Limitations and Potential 4. Cross-sectional Risk Factor Research in England and Wales - Achievements, limitations and Potential 5. Hunting for the Universal Risk Factor 6. Risk Assessment in the Youth Justice System: Application without Understanding? 7. Re-visiting Risk Factor Research, Policy and Practice

Young People ‘At Risk’ of What? Challenging Risk-focused Early Intervention as Crime Prevention

This article attempts to broker a compromise between critical criminological challenges to the populist (punitivist) and negative conceptions of young people ‘at risk’ of offending -which are used to justify (potentially deleterious) risk-based interventions (Goldson, 2005) -and the positivist risk-based models upon which these interventions are predicated. It is argued that all young people are, by definition, ‘at risk’ of problem outcomes due to their relative powerlessness in society; exemplified by the adult presumption/prescription of salient risks and the subsequent imposition of responses underpinned by these factors. However, the article concludes that, far from being rejected, the risk factor approach should be retained and utilized through a re-orientation towards risks identified through qualitative research with young people and a simultaneous emphasis upon factors which enable young people to thrive and develop. The pursuit of ‘causes’ and ‘predictors’ of youth offending is eschewed in favour of a re-conception of salient factors as ‘correlates’ and ‘indicators’ of potential behaviours -both ‘good’ and ‘bad’, which can then be utilized to supplement further qualitative research and, crucially, the explicit involvement of young people through consultation and participation processes shaping their futures.

Questioning the `Evidence' of Risk that Underpins Evidence-led Youth Justice Interventions:

In this article, I evaluate the Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm (RFPP) as employed in risk-focused research and risk assessment in the Youth Justice System in England and Wales and elsewhere. This paradigm has been criticized as theoretically and methodologically flawed, static, limited in scope and subject to political manipulation. Criticisms are explicated and evaluated, then counter-balanced with discussions of the methodological robustness and empirical successes of the paradigm. I conclude by recommending that quantitative risk-focused research is supplemented with routine qualitative consultation of neglected stakeholders (youth justice practitioners, young people) and that evidence of risk is interpreted, utilized and disseminated in a more valid, realistic manner.

Indicators of adolescent alcohol use : A composite risk factor approach

A self-reported alcohol inventory measured prevalence and frequency of lifetime, recent, and current alcohol use by an opportunity sample of 3226 young people aged 11–18 in Welsh secondary schools in 2005 comparing findings to extant U.K. and European levels. A risk factor-based questionnaire enabled comprehensive, sensitive sample profiling by gender and age, combining factor analysis with logistic regression to identify composite risk factors influential upon alcohol use by young people in Wales and salient to policy makers and practitioners, notably the endogenous factors: anti-social behaviour/attitudes, inadequate relationships/activities in school, negative experiences in school, lack of commitment to school, and impulsivity. Overlap with composite risk factors for youth offending was identified, but not with drug use, suggesting that the commonly cited “gateway” relationship between elements of “substance use” requires further examination. The studys limitations and implications are discussed.

Positive Youth Justice: Children First, Offenders Second

Introduction: A Children First, Offenders Second philosophy of positive youth justice Chapter One: Positive Youth Justice - Introducing Children First, Offenders Second Chapter Two: What is Children First, Offenders Second? Chapter Three: The context of Children First, Offenders Second positive youth justice - Evolution through devolution Chapter Four: Putting children first in the Youth Justice System Chapter Five: Progressive Diversion Chapter Six - Progressive Prevention-Promotion Chapter Seven - Conclusion

Is the Scaled Approach a Failed Approach

This article evaluates the ‘Scaled Approach’ to youth justice adopted in England and Wales, compared with the ‘Children First’ approach adopted in Swansea. Using Youth Justice Board reconviction data, comparisons are made between the performance of the Scaled Approach pilot areas, Children First and all other Youth Offending Teams in England and Wales. Data indicates wide variability and inconsistency of practice across Youth Offending Teams, including the pilot areas. The Children First model emerges as a promising method of reducing reconviction rates, whereas the Scaled Approach (applied assiduously) has unintended negative consequences. Implications for youth justice assessment policy and practice are discussed.

Children First, Offenders Second Positive Promotion: Reframing the Prevention Debate

This article explores the concept of ‘prevention’ in youth justice, which is dominated by negative, retrospective, risk-focused, offender-first approaches that individualise the causes of offending by children and responsibilise children for failing to resist and negotiate these causes. We offer an alternative ‘prevention’ model that prioritises the promotion of positive behaviours and outcomes for children. Children First, Offenders Second positive promotion is grounded in child-friendly principles of universalism, diversion and normalisation, progressed through inclusionary, participatory and legitimate practice and evidenced through measurable behaviours and outcomes such as engagement with youth justice processes and access to universal entitlements.

Promoting Prevention: preventing youth drug use in Swansea, UK, by targeting risk and protective factors

The multi‐agency, multiple‐intervention Promoting Prevention initiative aims to prevent drug use and youth offending in Swansea. It was evaluated using a computer‐based interactive questionnaire with 580 young people aged 11–18 years. Results indicate that exposure to risk factors within the main domains of the young persons life (family, school, neighbourhood, psychological) significantly increases the likelihood that they will ever become involved in drug use (‘ever takers’), whilst ever takers are three times more likely to offend than young people who have never taken an illicit drug (‘never takers’). The evaluation indicates that Promoting Preventions cross‐cutting, consultative and risk‐focused methodology is an effective way of targeting interventions to prevent and reduce drug use among young people in Swansea.

Promoting Positive Behaviour in Schools: The Youth Social Audit

Local monitoring in Swansea, Wales has identified a strong link between school exclusion and youth offending. This precipitated the establishment of the Promoting Positive Behaviour (PPB) initiative. A questionnaire based on the Mooney Problem Checklist (MPCL) was completed by 162 (124 control and 38 experimental) Year 10 and Year 11 pupils in Swansea. The research investigated differences in the extent of problems experienced by pupils who had been excluded from school and those who had not. Results show that pupils in Swansea who have been excluded report a range of problems at higher levels than non-excluded pupils. This indicates that PPB’s focus upon reducing disaffection and maintaining young people in schools may ameliorate problems and prevent associated problem behaviours such as offending.

Factors shaping substance use by young people in Wales

This paper examines the prevalence of, frequency of and factors underpinning, substance use by young people. The research augments previous exploration of the causes of youth drug use by integrating factor analysis into traditional statistical techniques to identify composite risk factors for different forms of drug use (any drugs, soft drugs, hard drugs, inhalants) by the youth population in Wales. The existing risk‐focused research literature is further extrapolated through detailed investigation of the relative salience of risk factors by specific gender and age group in the Welsh sample. Reported drug use by the whole sample and specific sub‐groups generally accorded with the findings of previous research with equivalent age groups in Wales, the UK and Europe. Those factors exerting the most influence upon youth drug use were: anti‐social behaviour/attitudes, drug‐related behaviour/attitudes, negative thinking, psychological problems and behavioural problems. This study affords a first tentative step on the road to a more comprehensive and sensitive exploration of the role of composite risk factors in drug taking behaviour by young people. Findings imply the need for comprehensive, multi‐dimensional drug prevention programmes addressing multiple and composite risk factors, targeted appropriately upon specific sub‐groups of the youth population.