Stephen Coleman

A TEST FOR THE EFFECT OF CONFORMITY ON CRIME RATES USING VOTER TURNOUT

Using voter turnout to measure conformity, this article examines whether conformity with social norms moderates the crime rate in the United States at the state and county levels. If people are fairly consistent in their response to the perceived local degree of conformity with norms about voting and against crime, analysis predicts a unique quadratic relationship between reported crime rates and voter turnout. A pooled multivariate regression analysis of state crime rates for several index crimes in 1960, 1970, and 1980 confirms the predicted relationship, as do county-level analyses of the violent crime rate in 1985 and 1991. This method might also be used to assess the effect of social conformity on other social choices.

The Minnesota Income Tax Compliance Experiment: Replication of the Social Norms Experiment

This research note reports the results of a follow-up experiment conducted to validate an earlier experiment showing that if taxpayers overestimate the prevalence of tax evasion, their voluntary compliance can be increased by informing them about the true rate of cheating. The result confirms that tax compliance is influenced partly by social conformity with perceived social norms against cheating. The experiments were done by the Minnesota Department of Revenue in 1995 and 1996, but only the first experiment has been publicly reported to date (Coleman, 1996).

The association between varicella (chickenpox) and group A streptococcus infections in historical perspective

Objectives: The aim of the research is to investigate the historical relationship between varicella and Streptococcus pyogenes infections. In the past few decades, varicella has been identified as a risk factor for invasive group A streptococcus infections. The question is whether this relationship also existed between varicella and scarlet fever in the historical era. Methods: The analysis begins with a search of historical medical reports on the relationship between varicella and scarlet fever epidemics in the late 19th and early 20th century, as well as in more recent empirical studies. Correlations and cross-correlations between varicella and scarlet fever are analyzed using weekly public health case reports from 1924 to 1932 for Boston, Chicago, New York City, and Philadelphia. Regression models are used to estimate the relationship between varicella and scarlet fever after controlling for seasonal forcing. Results: Historical records give limited support for a causal relationship between varicella and scarlet fever but indicate that these diseases often occurred close in time to each other. Likewise, statistical analysis shows that varicella and scarlet fever epidemics are closely aligned with each other, and varicella has a strong relationship with scarlet fever. The relationship is stronger than reported in any previous research on the two diseases. Conclusion: The close correspondence of the two diseases likely depends on multiple factors, including seasonal forcing, a causal relationship, and co-infections. The results raise questions about whether this close relationship might have had a synergistic effect or a role in the evolution of S. pyogenes from the virulent, high incidence epidemics of the 19th century to the relatively benign scarlet fever of the 1950s.

The historical association between measles and pertussis: A case of immune suppression?

Objectives: According to historical medical reports, many children with measles subsequently contracted pertussis, often with fatal results. The likelihood of a child contracting pertussis after a measles infection is increased by its immune-suppressing effects. This research aims to verify the historical reports. Methods: The analysis examines statistically the historical relationship between average measles and pertussis incidence rates in the United States from 1938 to 1954 at the state level and in average weekly rates. Analysis of incidence rates is cross-sectional at the state level using public health data. Results: The results show that, on average and over time, states with higher measles rates have higher pertussis rates, and the peaks and nadirs of average weekly incidence rates of pertussis lag measles by a delay of about 3–4 weeks, well within the duration of immune suppression. Measles and pertussis have similar geographical distributions. Conclusion: The research tentatively supports the hypothesis that because of its immune-suppressing effects, measles causes an increase in pertussis, but other factors may be involved. Epidemic models should give more attention to the possibility of immune suppression for diseases such as measles where that might be a risk factor. The findings reemphasize the importance of measles vaccination for the prevention of other diseases.

The Association Between Tuberculosis and Diphtheria

This research investigates the now-forgotten relationship between diphtheria and tuberculosis. Historical medical reports from the 19th century is reviewed followed by a statistical regression analysis of the relationship between the two diseases in the early 20th century. Historical medical records show a consistent association between diphtheria and tuberculosis that can increase the likelihood and severity of either disease in a coinfection. The statistical analysis uses historical weekly public health data on reported cases in five American cities over a period of several years, finding a modest but statistically significant relationship between the two diseases. No current medical theory explains the association between diphtheria and tuberculosis. Alternative explanations are explored with a focus on how the diseases assimilate iron. In a co-infection, the effectiveness of tuberculosis at assimilating extracellular iron can lead to increased production of diphtheria toxin, worsening that disease, which may in turn exacerbate tuberculosis. Iron-dependent repressor genes connect both diseases.

The Relationship between Varicella (Chicken Pox) and Scarlet Fever in Contemporary Hong Kong

Scarlet fever epidemics have reemerged in China, the UK, and Hong Kong. This research tests whether the scarlet fever epidemics in Hong Kong are linked to varicella epidemics. Varicella infection is a known risk for invasive Group A Streptococcal infections, and new historical research also shows that varicella epidemics were associated with scarlet fever epidemics in the early 20th century in the United States. This analysis examines the relationship between these two disease in Hong Kong from 2011 to 2015 and compares varicella rates before and after the reintroduction of scarlet fever. Analysis shows that scarlet fever and varicella have synchronous annual epidemic cycles, and a mathematical model of the relationship between scarlet fever and varicella is estimated. Varicella rates were unchanged by the return of scarlet fever, but annual varicella cycles may have influenced the size and timing of scarlet fever outbreaks.

Historical Associations and Geographical Distributions of Childhood Epidemics in the United States: An Exploratory, Pre-1955, Analysis at the State Level

The analysis explores possible associations among epidemic childhood diseases over time and in their geographical distributions in the United States. Diseases include diphtheria, polio, measles, scarlet fever, and whooping cough (pertussis). Analysis of their incidence rates is cross-sectional and geographical at the state level using the latitude and longitude of state centroids. All five diseases are analyzed in 1950 controlling for socio-demographic factors. Polio and measles are given an extended historical analysis from 1930 to 1954 and whooping cough from 1940 to 1954. The results show a complex relationship between measles and whooping cough where none was expected. On average, over time, states with higher measles rates also had higher whooping cough rates, and the average weekly incidence of whooping cough lags measles by a delay of two to three weeks. These findings give tentative support for the hypothesis that because of its immune suppressing effects measles causes an increase in whooping cough. The analysis shows little support for disease interference between measles and whooping cough but a possible association between scarlet fever and whooping cough. Geographical distributions of polio, measles, and whooping cough are relatively stable over time, on average, despite great seasonal and annual variations in incidence rates. The method of spatial analysis used here complements conventional metapopulation epidemic models that start in the time domain.

Evolution of the Russian Political Party System under the Influence of Social Conformity: 1993-2011

The Russian political party system has developed through a tumultuous era, progressing from extreme fragmentation to a smaller, more stable number of parties. Much of this change was engineered by elites and especially by President Putin, leading to the question of whether the result is a normal party system by traditional Western standards or just a tool of the government. By means of a predictive mathematical model, the analysis shows that the party system indeed has grown strong popular roots with a great impact on the overall distribution of votes among the parties. This is caused by the pervasive but unconscious effect of social conformity on voters.

Diffusion and Geographical Equilibrium in Voter Turnout in the United States: 1920-2008

Social conformity can spread social norms and behaviors through a society. This research examines such a process geographically for conformity with the norm that good citizens should vote, which in turn affects voter turnout. A mathematical model for this process is developed, and predictions are tested with qualitative and quantitative spatial analyses of state-level voter turnout in American presidential elections from 1920 to 2008. Results show that the diffusion of conformist behavior over time has led to a geographical equilibrium in state-level voter turnout, confirming the model.

The Spatial Diffusion of Voting Participation: Qualitative and Quantitative Predictions as Solutions to the Laplace Equation

Political scientists have offered much evidence that political behavior and attitudes can spread or diffuse through society. For the most part, however, proof of diffusion is limited to excluding other alternatives and showing that a model is “consistent with” a social diffusion process. In legal terms, one might say that the evidence is circumstantial. This paper sets a higher goal for determining whether a diffusion process is behind a spatial distribution. Results will show that social diffusion of voting participation can lead to highly specific and predictable behavior patterns across a country, as seen in the United States and Russia, and that one can test for these patterns with qualitative and quantitative analyses.