Stephen D. Handler

Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity

Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversity-productivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests.

Central Hardwoods ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

The forests in the Central Hardwoods Region will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Central Hardwoods Region of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate changes, and impacts to forest ecosystems was considered in order to assess vulnerability to climate change. Mesic upland forests were determined to be the most vulnerable to projected changes in climate, whereas many systems adapted to fire and drought, such as open woodlands, savannas, and glades, were perceived as less vulnerable. Projected changes in climate and the associated ecosystem impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-range planning.

Michigan forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Forests in northern Michigan will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate during the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Michigans eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate changes, and impacts to forest ecosystems was considered in order to draw conclusions on climate change vulnerability. Upland spruce-fir forests were determined to be the most vulnerable, whereas oak associations and barrens were determined to be less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. Projected changes in climate and the associated ecosystem impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-range planning.

Central Appalachians forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Appalachians Climate Change Response Framework project

Forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachians will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachian Broadleaf Forest-Coniferous Forest-Meadow and Eastern Broadleaf Forest Provinces of Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland for a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate changes, and impacts on forest ecosystems was considered by a multidisciplinary panel of scientists, land managers, and academics in order to assess ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. Appalachian (hemlock)/northern hardwood forests, large stream floodplain and riparian forests, small stream riparian forests, and spruce/fir forests were determined to be the most vulnerable. Dry/mesic oak forests and dry oak and oak/pine forests and woodlands were determined to be least vulnerable. Projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning.

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate changes, and impacts to forest ecosystems was considered in order to assess vulnerability to climate change. Upland spruce-fir, lowland conifers, aspen-birch, lowland-riparian hardwoods, and red pine forests were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems. White pine and oak forests were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning.

Regional Highlights of Climate Change

Climatic extremes, ecological disturbance, and their interactions are expected to have major effects on ecosystems and social systems in most regions of the United States in the coming decades. In Alaska, where the largest temperature increases have occurred, permafrost is melting, carbon is being released, and fire regimes are changing, leading to a transition from conifers to hardwoods in some forests. In Hawaii and the U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands, an altered climate and sea level rise are changing hydrology and fire regimes, affecting both forest ecosystems and human communities. In the Northwest, insect outbreaks (already prominent) and increased area burned, in combination with declining snowpack, are expected to have a major effect on dry, interior forests. In the Southwest, recent large wildfires and forest dieback in pinyon pine exemplify the kinds of changes that may occur in arid and semi-arid forests if droughts become more common in the future. In the Great Plains, where trees currently occupy only a small portion of the landscape, warmer temperature and non-native insects could reduce the amount of forested area and alter species distribution. In the Midwest, warmer temperature is expected to affect the distribution and abundance of many tree species, associated habitat, and human use of forests in a region where private lands are mixed with public lands. In the Northeast, warmer temperature is expected to affect the distribution and abundance of many tree species, although the productivity of hardwood species may increase significantly. In the Southeast, biodiversity and productivity may be affected by a combination of warmer climate, altered fire regimes, and invasive plants and insects.

Forest Adaptation Resources: climate change tools and approaches for land managers, 2nd edition

Forests across the United States are expected to undergo numerous changes in response to the changing climate. This second edition of the Forest Adaptation Resources provides a collection of resources designed to help forest managers incorporate climate change considerations into management and devise adaptation tactics. It was developed as part of the Climate Change Response Framework and reflects the expertise, creativity, and feedback of dozens of direct contributors and hundreds of users of the first edition over the last several years. Six interrelated chapters include: (1) a description of the overarching Climate Change Response Framework, which generated these resources; (2) a brief guide to help forest managers judge or initiate vulnerability assessments; (3) a “menu” of adaptation strategies and approaches that are directly relevant to forests of the Northeast and upper Midwest; (4) a second menu of adaptation strategies and approaches oriented to urban forests; (5) a workbook process with step-by-step instructions to assist land managers in developing on-theground climate adaptation tactics that address their management objectives; and (6) five real-world examples of how these resources have been used to develop adaptation tactics. The ideas, tools, and resources presented in the different chapters are intended to inform and support existing decisionmaking processes of multiple organizations with diverse management goals. Quality Assurance This publication conforms to the Northern Research Station’s Quality Assurance Implementation Plan which requires technical and policy review for all scientific publications produced or funded by the Station. The process included a blind technical review by at least two reviewers, who were selected by the Assistant Director for Research and unknown to the author. This review policy promotes the Forest Service guiding principles of using the best scientific knowledge, striving for quality and excellence, maintaining high ethical and professional standards, and being responsible and accountable for what we do. Cover Photo A forest containing red pine and northern red oak trees. Photo by Maria Janowiak, U.S. Forest Service and Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science. The use of trade or firm names in this publication is for reader information and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture of any product or service. Published by: For additional copies, contact: USDA FOREST SERVICE USDA Forest Service 11 CAMPUS BLVD., SUITE 200 Publications Distribution NEWTOWN SQUARE, PA 19073-3294 359 Main Road Delaware, OH 43015-8640 September 2016 Fax: 740-368-0152 Manuscript received for publication January 2016 Visit our homepage at: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/ Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers, 2nd edition Christopher W. Swanston, Maria K. Janowiak, Leslie A. Brandt, Patricia R. Butler, Stephen D. Handler, P. Danielle Shannon, Abigail Derby Lewis, Kimberly Hall, Robert T. Fahey, Lydia Scott, Angela Kerber, Jason W. Miesbauer, Lindsay Darling, Linda Parker, and Matt St. Pierre

Adaptation pathways: ecoregion and land ownership influences on climate adaptation decision-making in forest management

Climate adaptation planning and implementation are likely to increase rapidly within the forest sector not only as climate continues to change but also as we intentionally learn from real-world examples. We sought to better understand how adaptation is being incorporated in land management decision-making across diverse land ownership types in the Midwest by evaluating project-level adaptation plans from a suite of forest management projects developed through the Climate Change Response Framework. We used quantitative content analysis to evaluate 44 adaptation-planning documents developed through the Framework’s Adaptation Workbook within two ecoregional provinces of the Midwest. This approach was used to assess the components of adaptation planning, including the resources that adaptation actions targeted within planning documents, the climate changes and impacts of concern, and the adaptation strategies managers identified. Analyses of adaptation plans show that the most frequent climate changes and impacts of concern included alterations in the amount and timing of precipitation, increased vegetation moisture stress, and forest pest and pathogen impacts. Individual projects identified a diversity of adaptation options, rather than focusing singly on actions that aimed to resist climate impacts, enhance resilience, or transition systems. Multivariate analyses indicate that ecoregion and land ownership influenced adaptation planning, while the type of resources and the climate change impacts managers were concerned with were significantly correlated with the adaptation strategies selected during planning. This finding reinforces the idea that one-size-fits-all guidance on adaptation will be insufficient for land managers. Perceptions of relevant climate impacts differ based on regional and ownership contexts, which naturally leads to differences in preferred adaptation actions.

Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change

Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures will increase suitable habitat and biomass for many temperate species. Upland systems dominated by oak species generally have low vulnerability due to greater tolerance of hot and dry conditions, and some oak, hickory, and pine species are expected to become more competitive under hotter and physiologically drier conditions. However, changes in precipitation patterns, disturbance regimes, soil moisture, pest and disease outbreaks, and nonnative invasive species are expected to contribute forest vulnerability across the region. Northern, boreal, and montane forests have the greatest assessed vulnerability as many of their dominant tree species are projected to decline under warmer conditions. Coastal forests have high vulnerability, as sea level rise along the Atlantic coast increases damage from inundation, greater coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion. Considering these potential forest vulnerabilities and opportunities is a critical step in making climate-informed decisions in long-term conservation planning.

Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

The urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region, a 7-million-acre area covering portions of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the Chicago Wilderness region to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how nonnative species and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening the urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region. Major current threats to the region?s urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, land-use change, development, and fragmentation. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show a temperature increase of 1 ?F in the Chicago Wilderness region. Precipitation increased as well, especially during the summer. Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 2.3 to 8.2 ?F by the end of the century, with temperature increases across all seasons. Projections for precipitation show an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by model. Species distribution modeling for native species suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 11 primarily northern species and increase or become newly suitable for 40 species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that 15 percent of the trees currently present in the region have either moderate-high or high vulnerability to climate change, and many of those trees with low vulnerability are invasive species. We developed a process for self-assessment of urban forest vulnerability that was tested by urban forestry professionals from four municipalities, three park districts, and three forest preserve districts in the region. The professionals generally rated the impacts of climate change on the places they managed as moderately negative, mostly driven by the potential effects of extreme storms and heavy precipitation on trees in the area. The capacity of forests to adapt to climate change ranged widely based on economic, social, and organizational factors, as well as on the diversity of species and genotypes of trees in the area. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning. will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning.