Stephen Duckett

Using routine inpatient data to identify patients at risk of hospital readmission

BackgroundA relatively small percentage of patients with chronic medical conditions account for a much larger percentage of inpatient costs. There is some evidence that case-management can improve health and quality-of-life and reduce the number of times these patients are readmitted. To assess whether a statistical algorithm, based on routine inpatient data, can be used to identify patients at risk of readmission and who would therefore benefit from case-management.MethodsQueensland database study of public-hospital patients, who had at least one emergency admission for a chronic medical condition (e.g., congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes or dementia) during 2005/2006. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop an algorithm to predict readmission within 12 months. The performance of the algorithm was tested against recorded readmissions using sensitivity, specificity, and Likelihood Ratios (positive and negative).ResultsSeveral factors were identified that predicted readmission (i.e., age, co-morbidities, economic disadvantage, number of previous admissions). The discriminatory power of the model was modest as determined by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (c = 0.65). At a risk score threshold of 50, the algorithm identified only 44.7% (95% CI: 42.5%, 46.9%) of patients admitted with a reference condition who had an admission in the next 12 months; 37.5% (95% CI: 35.0%, 40.0%) of patients were flagged incorrectly (they did not have a subsequent admission).ConclusionA statistical algorithm based on Queensland hospital inpatient data, performed only moderately in identifying patients at risk of readmission. The main problem is that there are too many false negatives, which means that many patients who might benefit would not be offered case-management.

A question of place: medical power in rural Australia.

In Australia, like many countries, government, medicine and the community have maintained an interdependent and symbiotic relationship based on mutual resource dependency and reciprocity. The services of medicine have been indispensable to government and the community and in return medicine has achieved power, elitism and financial gain. Traditionally, doctors have controlled and directed medical knowledge in an absolute manner and this has been the basis of increasing power and dominance. There are, however, claims that medicines power and dominance over the health care system is being eroded by the emergence of major social trends. The corporatization of medicine, manageralism and proletarianization are touted as factors that are increasingly countervailing medical dominance and power. Whilst it could be suggested that as these trends become more firmly established government and the community gain greater discretionary control over how the resources of medicine can be allocated and utilized, this article argues that the geographic and social dimensions of the community in which doctors practice must be considered. Using a qualitative descriptive approach research was conducted in rural Victoria, Australia. The overall aim of the study was to identify the issues that impact upon service delivery in rural hospitals. The most significant issue that emerged related to medical relationships. The results of this research indicate that in this rural area the power of medicine is strengthened and institutionalized by geographically determined resource control. The sustainability of rural communities is linked to the ability of the town to attract and retain the services of a doctor. Crucial shortages of rural doctors provide medicine with a mandate to dictate the way in which medical resources will be allocated and used by hospitals and the community. Organizations that control critical resources are in an extremely powerful position to control others. Doctors in rural Victoria maintain a position of strength and use their power to exert control over the state, the community and the hospital. Although medical power and dominance may be declining in some areas, in rural Victoria it remains firmly entrenched.

Interventions to facilitate health workforce restructure

There are recognised shortages in most health professions in Australia. This is evidence that previous attempts at health workforce planning have failed. This paper argues that one reason for such failure is the lack of appropriate structures for health workforce planning. It also suggests that Australia needs to move beyond planning for particular professions and that health workforce planning needs to be based on identifying skill shortages as much as shortages in particular named professionals.The paper proposes specific policy suggestions to facilitate workforce flexibility and health workforce planning in Australia.

Are waiting lists inevitable

Waiting lists are a common phenomenon in markets in which non-price allocation of goods and services occurs. To the extent that waiting lists for in-patient health services are perceived to ration imperfectly, many propose policies which focus on reducing demand or increasing supply. Strategies aimed at increasing supply often create perverse incentives in that they reward hospitals with long waiting lists through the provision of additional resources. This paper describes how supply has been addressed in Victoria by changing the financial incentives relating to waiting lists. The success of this payment policy in reducing waiting lists to public hospitals is reported.

Private care and public waiting.

Waiting time for public hospital care is a regular matter for political debate One political response has been to suggest that expanding private sector activity will reduce public waiting times. This paper tests the hypothesis that increased private activity in the health system is associated with reduced waiting times using secondary analysis of hospital activity data for 2001-02. Median waiting time is shown to be inversely related to the proportion of public patients. Policymakers should therefore be cautious about assuming that additional support for the private sector will take pressure off the public sector and reduce waiting times for public patients.

Hospital use for potentially preventable conditions in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and other Australian populations

The poor state of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health has been documented in many ways, most obviously by comparing the relatively higher age‐specific mortality and morbidity rates. This paper demonstrates the use of acute hospital separation data as a way to identify potential deficiencies in providing appropriate primary health care services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations. It does so by using ‘ambulatory sensitive conditions’: those conditions (and procedures) for which high‐quality appropriate primary health services deliverable under ideal circumstances are thought to potentially reduce or eliminate the need for hospitalisation. Potential or realised access to primary care is not analysed directly using primary health service data. In this study, 1993–94 acute hospital separation data from NSW, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory were used to calculate separation rates and odds ratios for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non‐Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations. Age‐specific acute hospital separation rates for ambulatory sensitive conditions were 1.7 to 11 times higher for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations studied. This supports clinical contentions that much Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander morbidity and mortality is preventable and that further consideration is needed to service delivery reform at all levels in the health system and the distribution of funding.

Structural interests and Australian health policy

Health policy has been a matter of public discussion in Australia since the late 1960s. Mirroring the United States experience, much of the debate initially centred around the introduction of a universal national health insurance scheme but since the mid 1970s economic conditions have changed and contemporary decisions are often accompanied by rhetoric about the need to constrain costs which are portrayed as increasing out of control. These changes have been associated with changes in the relative influence of the dominant and challenging structural interests within the health sector. This article analyses the influence of those interests in Australian health policy since the mid 1960s.

Empirical aspects of record linkage across multiple data sets using statistical linkage keys: the experience of the PIAC cohort study

BackgroundIn Australia, many community service program data collections developed over the last decade, including several for aged care programs, contain a statistical linkage key (SLK) to enable derivation of client-level data. In addition, a common SLK is now used in many collections to facilitate the statistical examination of cross-program use. In 2005, the Pathways in Aged Care (PIAC) cohort study was funded to create a linked aged care database using the common SLK to enable analysis of pathways through aged care services.Linkage using an SLK is commonly deterministic. The purpose of this paper is to describe an extended deterministic record linkage strategy for situations where there is a general person identifier (e.g. an SLK) and several additional variables suitable for data linkage. This approach can allow for variation in client information recorded on different databases.MethodsA stepwise deterministic record linkage algorithm was developed to link datasets using an SLK and several other variables. Three measures of likely match accuracy were used: the discriminating power of match key values, an estimated false match rate, and an estimated step-specific trade-off between true and false matches. The method was validated through examining link properties and clerical review of three samples of links.ResultsThe deterministic algorithm resulted in up to an 11% increase in links compared with simple deterministic matching using an SLK. The links identified are of high quality: validation samples showed that less than 0.5% of links were false positives, and very few matches were made using non-unique match information (0.01%). There was a high degree of consistency in the characteristics of linked events.ConclusionsThe linkage strategy described in this paper has allowed the linking of multiple large aged care service datasets using a statistical linkage key while allowing for variation in its reporting. More widely, our deterministic algorithm, based on statistical properties of match keys, is a useful addition to the linkers toolkit. In particular, it may prove attractive when insufficient data are available for clerical review or follow-up, and the researcher has fewer options in relation to probabilistic linkage.

Living in the parallel universe in Australia: public Medicare and private hospitals.

The decision in the recent Chaoulli court case may presage the development of a nontrivial private sector in the Canadian health care system. Australia models many aspects of its Medicare system on Canadas plan: Australia has a national, universal scheme that is administered, in terms of hospital

Activity-Based Funding of Hospitals and Its Impact on Mortality, Readmission, Discharge Destination, Severity of Illness, and Volume of Care: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background Activity-based funding (ABF) of hospitals is a policy intervention intended to re-shape incentives across health systems through the use of diagnosis-related groups. Many countries are adopting or actively promoting ABF. We assessed the effect of ABF on key measures potentially affecting patients and health care systems: mortality (acute and post-acute care); readmission rates; discharge rate to post-acute care following hospitalization; severity of illness; volume of care. Methods We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of the worldwide evidence produced since 1980. We included all studies reporting original quantitative data comparing the impact of ABF versus alternative funding systems in acute care settings, regardless of language. We searched 9 electronic databases (OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, OVID Healthstar, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL, Health Technology Assessment, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Business Source), hand-searched reference lists, and consulted with experts. Paired reviewers independently screened for eligibility, abstracted data, and assessed study credibility according to a pre-defined scoring system, resolving conflicts by discussion or adjudication. Results Of 16,565 unique citations, 50 US studies and 15 studies from 9 other countries proved eligible (i.e. Australia, Austria, England, Germany, Israel, Italy, Scotland, Sweden, Switzerland). We found consistent and robust differences between ABF and no-ABF in discharge to post-acute care, showing a 24% increase with ABF (pooled relative risk  = 1.24, 95% CI 1.18–1.31). Results also suggested a possible increase in readmission with ABF, and an apparent increase in severity of illness, perhaps reflecting differences in diagnostic coding. Although we found no consistent, systematic differences in mortality rates and volume of care, results varied widely across studies, some suggesting appreciable benefits from ABF, and others suggesting deleterious consequences. Conclusions Transitioning to ABF is associated with important policy- and clinically-relevant changes. Evidence suggests substantial increases in admissions to post-acute care following hospitalization, with implications for system capacity and equitable access to care. High variability in results of other outcomes leaves the impact in particular settings uncertain, and may not allow a jurisdiction to predict if ABF would be harmless. Decision-makers considering ABF should plan for likely increases in post-acute care admissions, and be aware of the large uncertainty around impacts on other critical outcomes.