Stephen J. Cornell

Peak shift and epidemiology in a seasonal host–nematode system

Insight into the dynamics of parasite–host relationships of higher vertebrates requires an understanding of two important features: the nature of transmission and the development of acquired immunity in the host. A dominant hypothesis proposes that acquired immunity develops with the cumulative exposure to infection, and consequently predicts a negative relationship between peak intensity of infection and host age at this peak. Although previous studies have found evidence to support this hypothesis through between-population comparisons, these results are confounded by spatial effects. In this study, we examined the dynamics of infection of the nematode Trichostrongylus retortaeformis within a natural population of rabbits sampled monthly for 26 years. The rabbit age structure was reconstructed using body mass as a proxy for age, and the host age–parasite intensity relationship was examined for each rabbit cohort born from February to August. The age–intensity curves exhibited a typical concave shape, and a significant negative relationship was found between peak intensity of infection and host age at this peak. Adult females showed a distinct periparturient rise in T. retortaeformis infection, with higher intensities in breeding adult females than adult males and non-breeding females. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis of an acquired immune response of the host to a parasite infection, supporting the principle that acquired immunity can be modelled using the cumulative exposure to infection. These findings also show that seasonality can be an important driver of host–parasite interactions.

Predictive systems ecology

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Anticipating and managing future trade-offs and complementarities between ecosystem services

This paper shows how, with the aid of computer models developed in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to quantify and map how policy decisions are likely to affect multiple ecosystem services in future. In this way, potential trade-offs and complementarities between different ecosystem services can be identified, so that policies can be designed to avoid the worst trade-offs, and where possible, enhance multiple services. The paper brings together evidence from across the Rural Economy and Land Use Programmes Sustainable Uplands project for the first time, with previously unpublished model outputs relating to runoff, agricultural suitability, biomass, heather cover, age, and utility for Red Grouse (Lagopus scotica), grass cover, and accompanying scenario narratives and video. Two contrasting scenarios, based on policies to extensify or intensify land management up to 2030, were developed through a combination of interviews and discussions during site visits with stakeholders, literature review, conceptual modeling, and process-based computer models, using the Dark Peak of the Peak District National Park in the UK as a case study. Where extensification leads to a significant reduction in managed burning and grazing or land abandonment, changes in vegetation type and structure could compromise a range of species that are important for conservation, while compromising provisioning services, amenity value, and increasing wildfire risk. However, where extensification leads to the restoration of peatlands damaged by former intensive management, there would be an increase in carbon sequestration and storage, with a number of cobenefits, which could counter the loss of habitats and species elsewhere in the landscape. In the second scenario, land use and management was significantly intensified to boost UK self-sufficiency in food. This would benefit certain provisioning services but would have negative consequences for carbon storage and water quality and would lead to a reduction in the abundance of certain species of conservation concern. The paper emphasizes the need for spatially explicit models that can track how ecosystem services might change over time, in response to policy or environmental drivers, and in response to the changing demands and preferences of society, which are far harder to anticipate. By developing such models in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to depict scenarios of real concern to those who need to use the research findings. By engaging these collaborators with the research findings through film, it was possible to discuss adaptive options to minimize trade-offs and enhance the provision of multiple ecosystem services under the very different future conditions depicted by each scenario. By preparing for as wide a range of futures as possible in this way, it may be possible for decision makers to act rapidly and effectively to protect and enhance the provision of ecosystem services in the face of unpredictable future change.

Epidemiology: Foot-and-mouth disease under control in the UK

Following the first reported case on 20 February this year, foot-and-mouth disease spread to over 1,500 livestock farms in the United Kingdom by the end of April. From late March, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) required livestock on infected farms to be culled within 24 hours of the disease being reported and those on neighbouring farms within 48 hours. Here we investigate whether progress towards meeting these targets has had a detectable impact on the course of the epidemic in the United Kingdom. We conclude that it has now been brought under control, but it will be important to contain rapidly any new outbreaks in previously unaffected areas.

A new theory for the evolution of polyandry as a means of inbreeding avoidance

We propose a novel theory for the evolution of polyandry driven by genetic benefits to females whose offspring interbreed. In species with an ecology characterized by frequent colonization of new habitat patches, consanguineous matings may be common during the early stages of colonization, but genetic diversity may grow as new colonizers arrive. We show that with levels of inbreeding depression similar to those found in predominantly inbreeding populations, a polyandrous female can benefit her descendants since matings among her brood are mainly between half siblings rather than full siblings. We examine the invasion by a polyandrous phenotype using explicit genetic models in which costs of inbreeding are themselves subject to selection. In common with other models of inbreeding, we find that underlying high levels of inbreeding tend to purge deleterious recessive alleles, and hence these are unlikely to maintain sufficient inbreeding depression to favour polyandry. However, if costs of inbreeding are due to overdominance, biologically realistic levels of inbreeding depression result in genetic benefits large enough to favour polyandry provided it is not too costly. The potential significance of polyandry as a mechanism to reduce inbreeding in grandchildren will depend upon the genetic basis of inbreeding depression in natural, inbreeding populations.

Intracellular demography and the dynamics of Salmonella enterica infections.

An understanding of within-host dynamics of pathogen interactions with eukaryotic cells can shape the development of effective preventive measures and drug regimes. Such investigations have been hampered by the difficulty of identifying and observing directly, within live tissues, the multiple key variables that underlay infection processes. Fluorescence microscopy data on intracellular distributions of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) show that, while the number of infected cells increases with time, the distribution of bacteria between cells is stationary (though highly skewed). Here, we report a simple model framework for the intensity of intracellular infection that links the quasi-stationary distribution of bacteria to bacterial and cellular demography. This enables us to reject the hypothesis that the skewed distribution is generated by intrinsic cellular heterogeneities, and to derive specific predictions on the within-cell dynamics of Salmonella division and host-cell lysis. For within-cell pathogens in general, we show that within-cell dynamics have implications across pathogen dynamics, evolution, and control, and we develop novel generic guidelines for the design of antibacterial combination therapies and the management of antibiotic resistance.

PERSISTENCE EXPONENTS FOR FLUCTUATING INTERFACES

Numerical and analytic results for the exponent

Space and stochasticity in population dynamics

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Global Persistence Exponent for Nonequilibrium Critical Dynamics

describing the decay of the first return probability of an interface to its initial height are obtained for a large class of linear Langevin equations. The models are parametrized by the dynamic roughness exponent

Spatial parasite transmission, drug resistance, and the spread of rare genes

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