Stephen J. Ventura

Fuzzy and isodata classification of landform elements from digital terrain data in Pleasant Valley, Wisconsin

Abstract Numerical classification methods may provide an alternative to manual landform delineation using aerial photographs, a subjective process that requires much knowledge of the landscape in question. Continuous classification (fuzzy set) methods and unsupervised (ISODATA) classification techniques were used to classify the landscape of a study area in southwestern Wisconsin, USA. Each pixel of a 10-m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) was grouped according to its membership in a continuous landform class. These classes were determined by the natural clustering of the data in attribute space. Attributes used for the classification were elevation, slope, profile and tangent (related to plan) curvature, compound topographic (wetness) index, and incident solar radiation. The ISODATA classification assigned pixels to one, and only one, landform class while the continuous classification allocated relative class memberships to each pixel. The resulting classifications roughly follow subjective manual delineation lines but give more detailed results. These classification methods may prove useful for statistical analyses and determination of sample schemes.

Occurrence of wildfire in the northern Great Lakes Region: Effects of land cover and land ownership assessed at multiple scales

Risk of wildfire has become a major concern for forest managers, particularly where humans live in close proximity to forests. To date, there has been no comprehensive analysis of contemporary wildfire patterns or the influence of landscape-level factors in the northern, largely forested parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, USA. Using electronic archives from the USDA Forest Service and from the Departments of Natural Resources of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, we created and analysed a new, spatially explicit data set: the Lake States Fire Database. Most of the 18 514 fires during 1985-1995 were smaller than 4 ha, although there were 746 fires larger than 41 ha. Most fires were caused by debris burning and incendiary activity. There was considerable interannual variability in fire counts; over 80% of fires occurred in March, April, or May. We analysed the relationship of land cover and ownership to fires at two different fire size thresholds across four gridded spatial scales. Fires were more likely on non-forest than within forests; this was also true if considering only fires larger than 41 ha. An area of National or State Forest was less likely to have experienced a fire during the study period than was a forest of equal size outside National or State Forest boundaries. Large fires were less likely in State Forests, although they were neither more nor less likely to have occurred on National Forests. Fire frequency also varied significantly by forest type. All results were extremely consistent across analysis resolutions, indicating robust relationships.

Ecosystem-service tradeoffs associated with switching from annual to perennial energy crops in riparian zones of the US midwest.

Integration of energy crops into agricultural landscapes could promote sustainability if they are placed in ways that foster multiple ecosystem services and mitigate ecosystem disservices from existing crops. We conducted a modeling study to investigate how replacing annual energy crops with perennial energy crops along Wisconsin waterways could affect a variety of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. We found that a switch from continuous corn production to perennial-grass production decreased annual income provisioning by 75%, although it increased annual energy provisioning by 33%, decreased annual phosphorous loading to surface water by 29%, increased below-ground carbon sequestration by 30%, decreased annual nitrous oxide emissions by 84%, increased an index of pollinator abundance by an average of 11%, and increased an index of biocontrol potential by an average of 6%. We expressed the tradeoffs between income provisioning and other ecosystem services as benefit-cost ratios. Benefit-cost ratios averaged 12.06 GJ of additional net energy, 0.84 kg of avoided phosphorus pollution, 18.97 Mg of sequestered carbon, and 1.99 kg of avoided nitrous oxide emissions for every

Barriers to GIS Use in Planning

1,000 reduction in income. These ratios varied spatially, from 2- to 70-fold depending on the ecosystem service. Benefit-cost ratios for different ecosystem services were generally correlated within watersheds, suggesting the presence of hotspots – watersheds where increases in multiple ecosystem services would come at lower-than-average opportunity costs. When assessing the monetary value of ecosystem services relative to existing conservation programs and environmental markets, the overall value of enhanced services associated with adoption of perennial energy crops was far lower than the opportunity cost. However, when we monitized services using estimates for the social costs of pollution, the value of enhanced services far exceeded the opportunity cost. This disparity between recoverable costs and social value represents a fundamental challenge to expansion of perennial energy crops and sustainable agricultural landscapes.

Hydrologic-Economic Analysis of Best Management Practices for Sediment Control in the Santa Fe Watershed, New Mexico

Problem: Despite the widespread availability of geographic information systems (GIS) in local government, there is some evidence that the potential of GIS as a planning tool is not being fully exploited. While obstacles to GIS implementation in local government have been investigated, most of these investigations are either dated or do not focus on planning applications. Purpose: We aim to add to the limited literature on the current barriers hindering GIS use in public planning agencies. We also offer some insights into how to mitigate these barriers and help planning agencies move beyond using GIS simply for routine tasks of data access and mapmaking. Methods: We analyzed responses to a 2007 web-based survey of 265 practitioners in Wisconsins public planning agencies and follow-up interviews with 20 practitioners we conducted in 2008. Results and conclusions: Planning departments still face a range of technological, organizational, and institutional barriers in using GIS. Training, funding, and data issues appear to be the most significant barriers preventing greater use of GIS for planning purposes, suggesting that organizational and institutional issues are more pertinent than technological barriers. Our literature review indicates that the barriers to GIS use in local government are similar to those of the past, but not identical. Furthermore, our observations indicate that, in general, practitioners are not aware of the full potential of GIS and planning support systems (PSS). Takeaway for practice: Increased funding alone is not likely to move a planning agency beyond routine applications of GIS. Improved access to training that is geared toward the planning process and planning applications may help alleviate many barriers planners face in using GIS in general and in incorporating more sophisticated GIS functions in their work. Research support: This work was supported in part by the Consortium for Rural Geospatial Innovations, funded by the Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Services of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and in part by the University of Wisconsin–Madison College of Agriculture and Life Sciences and the University of Wisconsin–Extension.

Projecting Soil Organic Carbon Distribution in Central Chile under Future Climate Scenarios

The Santa Fe River Watershed in Santa Fe County, New Mexico was identified as one of the top five high risk nonpoint source pollution areas out in the Rio Grande Basin. This watershed was selected to demonstrate the use of hydrologic modeling as a powerful tool for assessing the impacts of land management practices on erosion and sediment control at the watershed level. A method based on the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran was used to address the local nonpoint sediment pollution concerns. The model was modified to reflect predicted future land uses related to expected urban expansion in the watershed. Six scenarios were created and the costs and benefits of each were weighed. The total estimated costs ranged from under

Landscape predictors of wolf attacks on bear-hunting dogs in Wisconsin, USA

1 million to over

Implementing a Thermal Urban Runoff Model (TURM)

66 million. Total average annual sediment yields at the watershed outlet ranged from 3,441 to 4,111 tonnes/year, depending on management practices employed. These results indicate the magnitude of expected sediment reductions under various management strategies. Additionally, they provide an indication of the magnitude of expected sediment reductions in the Santa Fe Watershed and the estimated cost of each management practice.

Abstract P1-09-01: Beyond fatigue – The impact of breast cancer treatment on body composition and energy expenditure

Soil organic C (SOC) is the largest terrestrial C pool, and it influences diverse soil properties and processes in a landscape. At global scales, SOC is related to climate; as climate changes, we expect that SOC will change at broad scales as well, but how SOC will respond to climate change in diverse environments is complex and highly uncertain. To evaluate the potential impact of predicted changes in temperature and precipitation across central Chile, we first estimated current SOC content using pedon descriptions and environmental variables (temperature, rainfall, land use, topography, soil types, and geology) as predictors. A random forest statistical model was used to predict SOC content by pedon data. Maps were created for six standard depths of the GlobalSoilMap project. Results showed mean SOC of 54 g kg at a depth interval of 0 to 5 cm, 51 g kg at 5 to 15 cm, 42 g kg at 15 to 30 cm, 29 g kg at 30 to 60 cm, 17 g kg at 60 to 100 cm, and 11 g kg at 100 to 200 cm. Model validation, withholding 25% of pedons, showed values of 0.70, 0.73, 0.75, 0.65, 0.56, and 0.29 for six depths, respectively. Two future temperature and precipitation for climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the NASA GISS-E2-R models, were considered in predicting SOC in 2050 and 2080. We found that central Chile would experience a loss of SOC in the depth range of 0 to 30 cm, averaging 9.7% for RCP4.5 and 12.9% for the RCP8.5 scenarios by the year 2050, with additional decreases of 8% in the RCP4.5 scenario and 16.5% under RCP8.5 by 2080.

ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL FACTORS INFLUENCING WILDFIRES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, UNITED STATES

Abstract Context. In Europe and the United States, wolf–human conflict has increased as wolf populations have recovered and recolonised human-dominated ecosystems. These conflicts may lead to negative attitudes towards wolves and often complicate wolf management. Wolf attacks on bear-hunting hounds (hereafter, hounds) are the second-most common type of depredation on domestic animals in Wisconsin, USA, and, typically, the most costly in terms of compensation per individual animal. Understanding the geospatial patterns in which these depredations occur could promote alternative hunting practices or management strategies that could reduce the number of wolf–human conflicts. Aims. We compared variables differentiating between wolf attacks on hounds and non-hounds (e.g., pets), we constructed a spatial, predictive model of wolf attacks on hounds, and we explored how the landscape of risk changed over time. Methods. We characterised landscape features of hound depredations using logistic regression. We applied the spatial model to a geographic information system (GIS) to display spatial patterns and to predict areas of risk for wolf attack. Key results. Our model correctly classified 84% of sites of past depredations, 1999–2008, and 78% of nearby random-unaffected sites. The model correctly predicted 82% of recent (2009–11) depredation sites not used in model construction, thereby validating its predictive power. Risk of wolf attack on hounds increased with percentage area of public-access land nearby, size of the nearest wolf pack, proximity of the nearest wolf pack, and decreased with percentage of human development. National and county forest lands had significantly (P < 0.001) more hound depredations than did other land-ownership types, whereas private lands had significantly fewer. Conclusions. Risk of wolf attacks on hounds had distinctive temporal and spatial signatures, with peak risk occurring during the black bear hound training and hunting seasons and in areas closer to the centre of wolf pack territories, with larger wolf packs and more public access land and less developed land. Implications. Our analysis can help bear hunters avoid high-risk areas, and help wildlife managers protect wildlife and recreational use of public lands, and reduce public costs of predator recovery. We present a risk-adjusted compensation equation. If wildlife managers choose, or are required, to provide compensation for hounds attacked by wolves, while hunting on public lands, we suggest that managers consider adjusting compensation payments on the basis of the relative landscape of risk.