Stephen M. Schaefer

Structural models of credit risk are useful: evidence from hedge ratios on corporate bonds.

Structural models of credit risk provide poor predictions of bond prices. We show that, despite this, they provide quite accurate predictions of the sensitivity of corporate bond returns to changes in the value of equity (hedge ratios). This is important since it suggests that the poor performance of structural models may have more to do with the influence of non-credit factors rather than their failure to capture the credit exposure of corporate debt. The main result of this paper is that even the simplest of the structural models [Merton, R., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449-470] produces hedge ratios that are not rejected in time-series tests. However, we find that the Merton model (with or without stochastic interest rates) does not capture the interest rate sensitivity of corporate debt, which is substantially lower than would be expected from conventional duration measures. The paper also shows that corporate bond prices are related to a number of market-wide factors such as the Fama-French SMB (small minus big) factor in a way that is not predicted by structural models.

The term structure of real interest rates and the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model☆

Abstract This paper estimates real term structures from cross-sections of British government index-linked (‘realrd) bond prices. The Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985) model is then fitted to the same data; the model closely approximates the shapes of the directly-estimated term structures. In contrast to similar studies of the nominal term structure, the long-term zero-coupon yield is quite stable, as the CIR model predicts, and in common with previous studies, the level of implied short rate volatility corresponds well with time series estimates. The other parameters, however, are often highly correlated and intertemporal parameter stability is rejected.

A Two-Factor Model of the Term Structure: An Approximate Analytical Solution

This paper develops an approximate analytical solution to a two state-variable model of the term structure similar to the one proposed by Brennan and Schwartz. Unlike the BS model, which was based on the consol rate and the short rate of interest, our model is based on the consol rate and the spread (i.e., the difference) between the consol rate and the short rate. This change, merely a redefinition of variables, is made to exploit an assumption, for which there is substantial empirical evidence, that these two variables (the consol rate and the spread) are orthogonal. Employing orthogonal state variables provides the key simplification in providing an approximate solution to the fundamental valuation equation.

Tax-induced clientele effects in the market for British government securities: Placing bounds on security values in an incomplete market

Abstract This paper develops a new methods for measuring tax effects in bond markets and presents empirical results for British Government Securities. The basic idea is to construct a least cost portfolio which, for investors in a given tax bracket, dominates a given bond. A portfolio is said to dominate a bond if it provides cash flows which are at least as great in every period, and has a lower price. In effect our method calculates an upper bound on the value of a bond to investors in a given tax bracket. The results demonstrate (i) the existence of clientele effects and (ii) the absence of an ‘effective tax rate’.

Interest Rate Volatility and the Shape of the Term Structure [and Discussion]

This paper analyses the effect of interest rate uncertainty on the shape of the forward rate curve. We consider a broad class of term structure models characterized by an affine relation between the drift and diffusion coefficients of the stochastic process describing the evolution of the state variables and the level of the state variables. For these models, a simple relation exists between the shape of the forward rate curve, the sensitivity of the zero-coupon yield curve to the state variables and the variance-covariance matrix of the state variables. In single factor models this relation implies that minus the convexity of the forward rate curve with respect to a measure of ‘duration’ is equal to the variance of the short rate. The paper explores why it is that, despite the well known shortcomings of single factor models, attempts to fit such models to cross-sections of nominal bond prices nonetheless produce reasonable estimates of interest rate volatility.

The direct and compliance costs of financial regulation

Abstract This paper attempts to estimate both the direct and indirect costs of regulation for major sectors of the UK financial services industry. We also compare UK direct costs with those for the US and France and this provides a benchmark for assessing the effect of regulation on the competitive position of the UK financial services industry. We believe that this is the first attempt to compare regulatory costs in the UK with those of its major competitors. For indirect costs, in the absence of an international benchmark we compare our results with the predictions made at the time of the introduction of the Financial Services Act, by Lomax (Lomax, D., 1987. London Markets After the Financial Services Act, Butterworths, London) and Goodhart (Goodhart, C., 1988. The costs of regulation. In: Seldon, A. (Ed.), Financial Regulation or Over-regulation. Institute of Economic Affairs, London, p. 31). They estimated that indirect costs would be £4 for every £1 of direct costs and that annual aggregate costs would be £100 million. Our results suggest that, so far as direct costs are concerned, the costs of regulation for the securities and derivatives trading and broking sector are substantially lower for the UK than for the US and France. In contrast, for the investment management and unit trust industry UK costs are significantly higher than those for the other two countries. For the life insurance industry, UK costs are similar to those in France but markedly lower than those for the US. We also find for the securities industry around £4.1 of indirect costs per £1 of direct costs. For the investment management industry the corresponding figure is £3.2. However there is substantial variation across firms and, although our sample is too small to be definitive, the ratio appears to be related to firm size. Although these results are broadly in line with the predictions of Lomax and Goodhart it should be borne in mind that both numerator and denominator are substantially higher in real terms than those used by Lomax and Goodhart.

A Model for Bond Portfolio Improvement

The problem of bond portfolio selection may be viewed as consisting of two parts. The first is concerned with the maturity profile of the total cash flows (the after-tax coupons and principal repayments) which the investor requires; in general there will be many portfolios of bonds which provide the desired cash flow profile. Accordingly, the second problem is the choice of a particular portfolio of bonds which provides these cash flows in some optimal fashion. If bonds are default free, future taxes are known, and differences in marketability and callability among issues can be ignored, then price is the only relevant criterion in choosing among alternative portfolios. This paper describes a simple linear programming model for this last problem of selecting the portfolio which provides a given pattern of cash flows at minimum cost. This provides a method for improving any initial portfolio, where such improvement is possible, by increasing its yield without reducing any future after-tax cash flows.

Recent Developments in Corporate Finance

During the decade preceding publication there were a number of significant developments in financial economics and major contributions made both by individuals who could be classified as conventional financial economists and by others who do not fit easily into this category - theoretical microeconomists, public and industrial economists. This volume contains a selection from the papers presented at a conference in Oxford in September 1985 which aimed to bring together a number of the leading participants in this field. The papers in the volume cover a wide range of topics - the efficiency of financial markets, new equity issues, asymmetric corporate taxation and investment, credit rationing, international investment, the foundations of banking theory - but they clearly reflect the main themes in financial economics at the time: the importance of informational asymmetries and of taxation.

Macroeconomic effects of corporate default crisis: A long-term perspective

Using an extensive new data set on corporate bond defaults in the U.S. from 1866 to 2010, we study the macroeconomic effects of bond market crises and contrast them with those resulting from banking crises. During the past 150 years, the U.S. has experienced many severe corporate default crises in which 20 to 50 percent of all corporate bonds defaulted. Although the total par amount of corporate bonds has often rivaled the amount of bank loans outstanding, we find that corporate default crises have far fewer real effects than do banking crises. These results provide empirical support for current theories that emphasize the unique role that banks and the credit and collateral channels play in amplifying macroeconomic shocks.

The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence: Implications for Active Investment Management

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a losers game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.