Stephen Obrochta

Larger CO2 source at the equatorial Pacific during the last deglaciation

While biogeochemical and physical processes in the Southern Ocean are thought to be central to atmospheric CO2 rise during the last deglaciation, the role of the equatorial Pacific, where the largest CO2 source exists at present, remains largely unconstrained. Here we present seawater pH and pCO2 variations from fossil Porites corals in the mid equatorial Pacific offshore Tahiti based on a newly calibrated boron isotope paleo-pH proxy. Our new data, together with recalibrated existing data, indicate that a significant pCO2 increase (pH decrease), accompanied by anomalously large marine 14C reservoir ages, occurred following not only the Younger Dryas, but also Heinrich Stadial 1. These findings indicate an expanded zone of equatorial upwelling and resultant CO2 emission, which may be derived from higher subsurface dissolved inorganic carbon concentration.

Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming

The recent warming “hiatus” is subject to intense interest, with proposed causes including natural forcing and internal variability. Here we derive samples of all natural and internal variability from observations and a recent proxy reconstruction to investigate the likelihood that these two sources of variability could produce a hiatus or rapid warming in surface temperature. The likelihood is found to be consistent with that calculated previously for models and exhibits a similar spatial pattern, with an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like structure, although with more signal in the Atlantic than in model patterns. The number and length of events increases if natural forcing is also considered, particularly in the models. From the reconstruction it can be seen that large eruptions, such as Mount Tambora in 1815, or clusters of eruptions, may result in a hiatus of over 20 years, a finding supported by model results.

Recent global temperature “plateau” in the context of a new proxy reconstruction

Stable global temperatures of the last 10–15 years have been a topic of considerable discussion. A new proxy extension of the global temperature record enables better placement of this feature in a longer historical perspective. The fixed-grid composite covers the interval 1801–1984, with an extension to 1782, and anchors the global temperature record in the last major cold interval of the Little Ice Age, when carbon dioxide concentration was at preanthropogenic levels. Except for greater and longer cooling (approximately twice the length of Pinatubo) associated with the Tambora eruption, the proxy agrees with the most widely cited previous assessment of global temperature over this interval, lending more confidence to a centennial extension of the global temperature record. The proxy correlation is as high as 0.83 for the interval 1907–1984 (df = 8, p = 0.001), with the 21st century 1.0°C ± 0.2°C warmer than the nonvolcanic base state. This remarkable linearity requires a clear theoretical understanding as to how an exceedingly complex system can, on the global average, behave in such a simple way. Removal of the linear radiatively forced component from the global temperature record yields an estimate of natural variability for the last 230 years and indicates no unusual natural variability during the recent 10–15 years. Based on the estimate of unforced variability over the last 170 years, there is about a 40% chance of continued “natural cooling” over the next few years, with about a 10% chance of cooling persisting into the next decade.

The undatables: Quantifying uncertainty in a highly expanded Late Glacial-Holocene sediment sequence recovered from the deepest Baltic Sea basin-IODP Site M0063

Laminated, organic-rich silts and clays with high dissolved gas content characterize sediments at IODP Site M0063 in the Landsort Deep, which at 459 m is the deepest basin in the Baltic Sea. Cores ...

Holocene stratigraphy of the Ångermanälven River estuary, Bothnian Sea

This study explores the Holocene depositional succession at the IODP Expedition 347 sites M0061 and M0062 in the vicinity of the Ångermanälven River estuary in the Bothnian Sea sector of the Baltic Sea in northern Scandinavia. Site M0061 is located in a coastal offshore setting (87.9 m water depth), whereas site M0062 is fully estuarine (69.3 m water depth). The dataset comprises acoustic profiles and sediment cores collected in 2007 and late 2013 respectively. Three acoustic units (AUs) were recognized. Lowermost AU1 is interpreted as a poorly to discontinuous stratified glaciofluvial deposit, AU2 as a stratified conformable drape of glaciolacustrine origin, and AU3 as a poorly stratified to stratified mud drift. A strong truncating reflector separates AU2 and AU3. Three lithological units (LUs) were defined in the sediment cores. LU1 consists of glaciofluvial sand and silt gradating into LU2, which consists of glaciolacustrine varves. A sharp contact interpreted as a major unconformity separates LU2 from the overlying LU3 (brackish-water mud). In the basal part of LU3, one debrite (site M0061) or two debrites (site M0062) were recognized. Information yielded from sediment physical properties (magnetic susceptibility, natural gamma ray, dry bulk density), geochemistry (total carbon, total organic carbon, total inorganic carbon and nitrogen), and grain size support the LU division. The depositional succession was formally subdivided into two alloformations: the Utansjö Alloformation and overlying Hemsön Alloformation; the Utansjö Alloformation was further subdivided into two lithostratigraphic formations: the Storfjärden and Åbordsön formations. The Storfjärden (sandy outwash) and Åbordsön (glaciolacustrine rhythmite) formations represent a glacial retreat systems tract, which started at ca. 10.6 kyr BP. Their deposition was mainly controlled by meltwater from the retreating ice margin, glacio-isostatic land uplift and the regressive (glacial) lake level. The Hemsön Alloformation (organic-rich brackish-water mud) represents a period of forced regression, starting possibly at ca. 9.5 kyr BP. At about 7 kyr BP, brackish water reached the study area as a result of the mid-Holocene marine flooding of the Baltic Sea Basin, but the rapid land uplift soon surpassed the associated (Littorina) transgression. Changed near-bottom current patterns, caused by the establishment of a permanent halocline, and the reduced sediment consistency caused by increased organic deposition resulted in a sharp and erosional base of the brackish-water mud. Estuarine processes and salinity stratification at site M0062 started to play a more important role. This study applies a combined allostratigraphic and lithostratigraphic approach over the conventional Baltic Sea stages. This approach makes it more straightforward to study this Baltic Sea deglaciation–postglacial sequence and compare it to other formerly glaciated shallow sea estuaries.

Response of the Great Barrier Reef to sea-level and environmental changes over the past 30,000 years

Previous drilling through submerged fossil coral reefs has greatly improved our understanding of the general pattern of sea-level change since the Last Glacial Maximum, however, how reefs responded to these changes remains uncertain. Here we document the evolution of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the world’s largest reef system, to major, abrupt environmental changes over the past 30 thousand years based on comprehensive sedimentological, biological and geochronological records from fossil reef cores. We show that reefs migrated seaward as sea level fell to its lowest level during the most recent glaciation (~20.5–20.7 thousand years ago (ka)), then landward as the shelf flooded and ocean temperatures increased during the subsequent deglacial period (~20–10 ka). Growth was interrupted by five reef-death events caused by subaerial exposure or sea-level rise outpacing reef growth. Around 10 ka, the reef drowned as the sea level continued to rise, flooding more of the shelf and causing a higher sediment flux. The GBR’s capacity for rapid lateral migration at rates of 0.2–1.5 m yr−1 (and the ability to recruit locally) suggest that, as an ecosystem, the GBR has been more resilient to past sea-level and temperature fluctuations than previously thought, but it has been highly sensitive to increased sediment input over centennial–millennial timescales.The Great Barrier Reef has migrated rapidly in response to sea-level changes since the last glacial period, suggesting resilience to environmental stress over this interval, according to a reconstruction of reef accretion.

Bulk sediment 14C dating in an estuarine environment – How accurate can it be?

Abstract Due to a lack of marine macrofossils in many sediment cores from the estuarine Baltic Sea, researchers are often forced to carry out 14C determinations on bulk sediment samples. However, ambiguity surrounding the carbon source pathways that contribute to bulk sediment formation introduces a large uncertainty into 14C geochronologies based on such samples, and such uncertainty may not have been fully considered in previous Baltic Sea studies. We quantify this uncertainty by analyzing bulk sediment 14C determinations carried out on densely spaced intervals in independently dated late-Holocene sediment sequences from two central Baltic Sea cores. Our results show a difference of ~600?14C?yr in median bulk sediment reservoir age, or R(t)bulk, between the two core locations (~1200?14C?yr for one core, ~620?14C?yr for the other), indicating large spatial variation. Furthermore, we also find large downcore (i.e., temporal) R(t)bulk variation of at least ~200?14C?yr for both cores. We also find a difference of 585?14C?yr between two samples taken from the same core depth. We propose that studies using bulk sediment 14C dating in large brackish water bodies should take such spatiotemporal variation in R(t)bulk into account when assessing uncertainties, thus leading to a larger, but more accurate, calibrated age range. (Less)

Relationship between the Northern Pacific Gyre Oscillation and tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotopes in northeastern Japan

The North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) significantly imprints on hydrological fluctuations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) region, but this has not yet been observed in proxy-based hydroclimate reconstructions. This study reports a tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from northeastern Japan spanning A.D. 1927–2010, overlapping with instrumental data, which we analyzed to determine if tree-ring δ18O in northeastern Japan records a signal consistent with the NPGO. Our results indicate that the tree-ring δ18O has a significant negative correlation with May–June (MJ) precipitation, as well as with short-term MJ relative humidity variation. Time-lagged temporal-domain comparisons indicate that the tree-ring δ18O is significantly correlated with the following year March–April (MA) and MJ NPGO index before the North Pacific climate transition in the late 1980s, particularly on decadal timescales. These relationships between our tree-ring δ18O and the climate patterns in the North Pacific are consistent with the actual early-summer precipitation. Spatial spring and early-summer sea-surface temperature anomalies exhibit a NPGO-like pattern in the following year. Spatial early-summer sea-level pressure anomalies also indicate North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) like patterns in the western North Pacific. These results suggest a lagged response of the NPGO to the EASM climate changes, and tree-ring δ18O in northeast Japan has a potential linkage with NPGO index from winter to early summer of the following year.

Assessment of Northeastern Japan Tree‐Ring Oxygen Isotopes for Reconstructing Early Summer Hydroclimate and Spring Arctic Oscillation

The spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) significantly affects the subsequent summer rainfall in the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) region, and analysis of meteorological data indicates this teleconnection strength varied on interdecadal timescales during the late 20th century. Tree-ring records may be able to extend the relatively short observational record, but the extent to which these proxy reconstructions correspond to AO variability has yet to be explored in this region. Therefore, we present new tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope (δO) records from northeastern Japan (Akita, northern limit of EASM), spanning AD 1950 to 2003 which overlaps with the instrumental record. Tree-ring δO is used for reconstructing the past hydroclimate variability and allows us to consider whether tree-ring δO has the potential to clarify the longer-term interdecadal changes in the spring AO-EASM relationship. Measurements and analyses show that our tree-ring δO datasets have a significant negative correlation with May-June-July relative humidity, and the tree-ring δO in northeastern Japan also significantly correlates with the summer EASM index. Temporal comparisons between our record and observed monthly AO index indicate that reconstructed following early summer relative humidity significantly correlates to the previous March-April-May AO. This linkage changes on interdecadal timescales, and the linkage is relatively strong during early 1970s through early 1990s. Similar results are also obtained using a separate tree-ring δO record from a separate location about 200 km to the southeast, suggesting that tree-ring cellulose δO in northeastern Japan is indeed useful for better understanding the long-term teleconnection between the spring AO and EASM.