Stephen P. Juraschek

United States Registered Nurse Workforce Report Card and Shortage Forecast

Registered nurses (RNs) play a critical role in health care delivery. With an aging US population, health care demand is growing at an unprecedented pace. Using projected changes in population size and age, the authors developed demand and supply models to forecast the RN job shortage in each of the 50 states. Letter grades were assigned based on projected RN job shortage ratios. The number of states receiving a grade of “D” or “F” for their RN shortage ratio will increase from 5 in 2009 to 30 by 2030, for a total national deficit of 918 232 (725 619 - 1 112 112) RN jobs. There will be significant RN workforce shortages throughout the country in 2030; the western region will have the largest shortage ratio of 389 RN jobs per 100 000. Increased efforts to understand shortage dynamics are warranted.

Effects of vitamin C supplementation on blood pressure: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND In observational studies, increased vitamin C intake, vitamin C supplementation, and higher blood concentrations of vitamin C are associated with lower blood pressure (BP). However, evidence for blood pressure-lowering effects of vitamin C in clinical trials is inconsistent. OBJECTIVE The objective was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical trials that examined the effects of vitamin C supplementation on BP. DESIGN We searched Medline, EMBASE, and Central databases from 1966 to 2011. Prespecified inclusion criteria were as follows: 1) use of a randomized controlled trial design; 2) trial reported effects on systolic BP (SBP) or diastolic BP (DBP) or both; 3) trial used oral vitamin C and concurrent control groups; and 4) trial had a minimum duration of 2 wk. BP effects were pooled by random-effects models, with trials weighted by inverse variance. RESULTS Twenty-nine trials met eligibility criteria for the primary analysis. The median dose was 500 mg/d, the median duration was 8 wk, and trial sizes ranged from 10 to 120 participants. The pooled changes in SBP and DBP were -3.84 mm Hg (95% CI: -5.29, -2.38 mm Hg; P < 0.01) and -1.48 mm Hg (95% CI: -2.86, -0.10 mm Hg; P = 0.04), respectively. In trials in hypertensive participants, corresponding reductions in SBP and DBP were -4.85 mm Hg (P < 0.01) and -1.67 mm Hg (P = 0.17). After the inclusion of 9 trials with imputed BP effects, BP effects were attenuated but remained significant. CONCLUSIONS In short-term trials, vitamin C supplementation reduced SBP and DBP. Long-term trials on the effects of vitamin C supplementation on BP and clinical events are needed.

Meta-analysis of folic acid supplementation trials on risk of cardiovascular disease and risk interaction with baseline homocysteine levels.

Experimental models and observational studies suggest that homocysteine-lowering therapy with folic acid (FA) may prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, FA also stimulates cell proliferation and might promote progression of atherosclerosis. Our objectives were to perform a meta-analysis of FA supplementation trials on CVD events and to explore a potential interaction between FA supplementation and baseline homocysteine levels on CVD events. We searched MEDLINE for randomized controlled trials of FA supplementation to prevent CVD events (January 1966 to July 2009) and performed meta-analyses using random effects models. For trials that reported responses to FA supplementation stratified by baseline levels of homocysteine, we pooled within-trial estimates of differences in log-relative risks by baseline homocysteine levels using a random effects model. Overall, FA supplementation did not affect primary cardiovascular clinical end points (relative risk 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93 to 1.13, p = 0.66) or stroke (relative risk 0.95, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.08, p = 0.43). However, in trials that reported analyses stratified by baseline homocysteine, effect of FA supplementation differed by strata of baseline homocysteine (p for interaction = 0.030). Specifically, risks of primary clinical CVD events comparing FA supplementation to control were 1.06 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.13) in strata with mean baseline homocysteine levels >12 mumol/L and 0.94 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.03) in strata with baseline homocysteine levels <12 micromol/L. In conclusion, FA had no effect on CVD or stroke. However, analysis of within-trial results stratified by baseline homocysteine suggests potential harm in those with high homocysteine at baseline. This interaction may have important implications for recommendations of FA supplement use. In the meantime, FA supplementation should not be recommended as a means to prevent or treat CVD or stroke.

Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation Results From the Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project

Background— Poor cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, the relationship between CRF and atrial fibrillation (AF) is less clear. The aim of this analysis was to investigate the association between CRF and incident AF in a large, multiracial cohort that underwent graded exercise treadmill testing. Methods and Results— From 1991 to 2009, a total of 64 561 adults (mean age, 54.5±12.7 years; 46% female; 64% white) without AF underwent exercise treadmill testing at a tertiary care center. Baseline demographic and clinical variables were collected. Incident AF was ascertained by use of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code 427.31 and confirmed by linkage to medical claim files. Nested, multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the independent association of CRF with incident AF. During a median follow-up of 5.4 years (interquartile range, 3–9 years), 4616 new cases of AF were diagnosed. After adjustment for potential confounders, 1 higher metabolic equivalent achieved during treadmill testing was associated with a 7% lower risk of incident AF (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92–0.94; P<0.001). This relationship remained significant after adjustment for incident coronary artery disease (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.91–0.93; P<0.001). The magnitude of the inverse association between CRF and incident AF was greater among obese compared with nonobese individuals (P for interaction=0.02). Conclusions— There is a graded, inverse relationship between cardiorespiratory fitness and incident AF, especially among obese patients. Future studies should examine whether changes in fitness increase or decrease risk of atrial fibrillation. This association was stronger for obese compared with nonobese, especially among obese patients.

Trends in the prevalence of reduced GFR in the United States: A comparison of creatinine- and cystatin c-based estimates

BACKGROUND The US prevalence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine level increased during the decade ending in 2002. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cystatin C measurements recently were calibrated to the international standard, allowing for an independent test of the trend in prevalence of reduced eGFR using cystatin C level. STUDY DESIGN Cross-sectional surveys performed during 2 periods. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS Nationally representative subsamples of adult participants from NHANES III (1988-1994) and the NHANES 1999-2002 surveys. PREDICTOR Survey period. OUTCOMES Prevalence of reduced GFR, defined as eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m² based on levels of serum creatinine, cystatin C, or both (eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and eGFRcr-cys), using estimating equations developed by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI). MEASUREMENTS Serum cystatin C level, measured from stored samples in 2006, calibrated to the international standard in 2012. RESULTS Between 1988-1994 and 1999-2002, the prevalence of reduced eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and eGFRcr-cys increased from 4.7% (95% CI, 4.1%-5.3%) to 6.5% (95% CI, 5.9%-7.1%) (P < 0.001), from 5.5% (95% CI, 4.6%-6.5%) to 8.7% (95% CI, 7.5%-10.0%) (P < 0.001), and from 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7%-5.2%) to 7.1% (95% CI, 6.2%-8.0%) (P < 0.001), respectively. The higher prevalence of reduced GFR in the later period was observed in all subgroups of age, race, sex, and GFR categories. After adjusting for changes in the US population by age, sex, race, diabetes, hypertension, and body mass index, prevalence ratios of reduced GFR in the later versus earlier survey were 1.24 (95% CI, 1.09-1.45), 1.34 (95% CI, 1.15-1.67), and 1.33 (95% CI, 1.17-1.65) using eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and eGFRcr-cys, respectively. LIMITATIONS Likely underascertainment of persons with GFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m²; GFR was estimated and not measured; comparability of laboratory assays based on a calibration subsample. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of reduced eGFRcys in the US civilian noninstitutionalized population increased between 1988-1994 and 1999-2002, confirming the increase observed in the prevalence of reduced eGFRcr.

Effect of Oral Vitamin C Supplementation on Serum Uric Acid: A Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

To assess the effect of vitamin C supplementation on serum uric acid (SUA) by pooling the findings from published randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

The effect of n–3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid supplementation on urine protein excretion and kidney function: meta-analysis of clinical trials

BACKGROUND Chronic kidney disease is a major worldwide problem. Although epidemiologic and experimental studies suggest that n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid (n-3 LCPUFA) supplementation may prevent or slow the progression of kidney disease, evidence from clinical trials is inconsistent. OBJECTIVE The objective was to combine evidence from controlled clinical trials to assess the effect of n-3 LCPUFA supplementation on the change in urine protein excretion (UPE) and on glomerular filtration rate (GFR). DESIGN We performed a meta-analysis of clinical trials that tested the effect of n-3 LCPUFA supplementation on UPE, a marker of kidney damage, and on GFR, a marker of kidney function. A random-effects model was used to pool SD effect size (Cohens d) across studies. RESULTS Seventeen trials with 626 participants were included in the meta-analysis. Most trials focused on patients with a single underlying diagnosis: IgA nephropathy (n = 5), diabetes (n = 7), or lupus nephritis (n = 1). The dose of n-3 LCPUFAs ranged from 0.7 to 5.1 g/d, and the median follow-up was 9 mo. In the pooled analysis, there was a greater reduction in UPE in the n-3 LCPUFA group than in the control group: Cohens d for all trials was -0.19 (95% CI: -0.34, -0.04; P = 0.01). In a patient with 1 g UPE/d , this corresponds to a reduction of 190 mg/d. Effects on GFR were reported in 12 trials. The decline in GFR was slower in the n-3 LCPUFA group than in the control group, but this effect was not significant (0.11; 95% CI: -0.07, 0.29; P = 0.24). CONCLUSIONS In our meta-analysis, use of n-3 LCPUFA supplements reduced UPE but not the decline in GFR. However, small numbers of participants in trials, different methods of assessing proteinuria and GFR, and inconsistent data reporting limit the strength of these conclusions. Large, high-quality trials with clinical outcomes are warranted.

Alternative Markers of Hyperglycemia and Risk of Diabetes

OBJECTIVE Fructosamine, glycated albumin, and 1,5-anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG) are of interest for monitoring short-term glycemic control in patients with diabetes; however, their associations with diabetes risk are uncharacterized. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the associations of fructosamine, glycated albumin, and 1,5-AG with incident diabetes in 1,299 participants, from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (2005–2006), who had no history of diagnosed diabetes at baseline. Incident diabetes was self-reported during annual telephone calls. RESULTS There were 119 new cases of diabetes during a median follow-up of 3.3 years. When compared with the lowest quartile, the fourth quartiles of fructosamine and glycated albumin were significantly associated with diabetes risk (hazard ratio [HR] 3.99 [95% CI 1.93–8.28] and 5.22 [2.49–10.94], respectively). The fourth quartile of 1,5-AG was associated with a significantly lower diabetes risk (0.27 [0.14–0.55]). Associations were attenuated but still significant after adjustment for hemoglobin A1c (A1C) or fasting glucose. CONCLUSIONS Fructosamine, glycated albumin, and 1,5-AG were associated with the subsequent development of diabetes independently of baseline A1C and fasting glucose. Our results suggest these alternative biomarkers may be useful in identifying persons at risk for diabetes.

The efficacy of minimally invasive discectomy compared with open discectomy: a meta-analysis of prospective randomized controlled trials

OBJECT Advocates of minimally invasive discectomy (MID) have promoted this operation as an alternative to open discectomy (OD), arguing that there may be less injury to the paraspinal muscles, decreased postoperative pain, and a faster recovery time. However, a recently published large randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing these approaches reported inferior relief of leg pain in patients undergoing MID. The authors conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate complications and improvement in leg pain in patients with radiculopathy enrolled in RCTs comparing OD to MID. METHODS The authors performed a literature search using Medline and EMBASE of studies indexed between January 1990 and January 2011. Predetermined RCT eligibility included the usage of tubular retractors during MID, a minimum follow-up duration of 1 year, and quantification of pain with the visual analog scale (VAS). Trials that only evaluated patients with recurrent disc herniation were excluded. Data on operative parameters, complications, and VAS scores of leg pain were extracted by 2 investigators. A meta-analysis was performed assuming random effects to determine the difference in mean change for continuous outcomes and the risk ratio for binary outcomes. RESULTS Six trials comprising 837 patients (of whom 388 were randomized to MID and 449 were randomized to OD) were included. The mean operative time was 49 minutes during MID and 44 minutes during OD; this difference was not statistically significant. Incidental durotomies occurred significantly more frequently during MID (5.67% compared with 2.90% for OD; RR 2.05, 95% CI 1.05-3.98). Intraoperative complications (incidental durotomies and nerve root injuries) were also significantly more common in patients undergoing MID (RR 2.01, 95% CI 1.07-3.77). The mean preoperative VAS score for leg pain was 6.9 in patients randomized to MID and 7.2 in those randomized to OD. With long-term follow-up (1-2 years postoperatively), the mean VAS score improved to 1.6 in both the MID and OD cohorts. There was no significant difference in relief of leg pain between the 2 approaches with either short-term follow-up (2-3 months postoperatively, 0.81 points on the VAS, 95% CI -4.71 to 6.32) or long-term follow-up (2.64 on the VAS, 95% CI -2.15 to 7.43). Reoperation for recurrent herniation was more common in patients randomized to the MID group (8.50% compared with 5.35% in patients randomized to the OD group), but this difference was not statistically significant (RR 1.56, 95% CI 0.92-2.66). Total complications did not differ significantly between the operations (RR 1.50, 95% CI 0.97-2.33). CONCLUSIONS The current evidence suggests that both OD and MID lead to a substantial and equivalent long-term improvement in leg pain. Adequate decompression, regardless of the operative approach used, may be the primary determinant of pain relief-the major complaint of many patients with radiculopathy. Incidental durotomies occurred significantly more frequently during MID, but total complications did not differ between the techniques.

Associations of Alternative Markers of Glycemia with Hemoglobin A 1c and Fasting Glucose

BACKGROUND 1,5-Anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG), fructosamine, and glycated albumin are of increasing interest as alternative measures of hyperglycemia. We characterize the associations of these nontraditional glycemic markers with hemoglobin A(1c) (Hb A(1c)) and fasting glucose and assess their ability to identify people with diabetes. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional comparison of 1,5-AG, fructosamine, and glycated albumin with Hb A(1c) and fasting glucose measurements in 1719 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We evaluated nonlinear relationships using R(2) and F-statistics. Performance for identification of cases of diabetes was determined using the area under the curve (AUC). Diabetes was defined by Hb A(1c) ≥6.5%, fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL (≥6.99 mmol/L), and/or a self-reported history of diagnosed diabetes. RESULTS Median values of Hb A(1c) and fasting glucose were 5.8% and 109 mg/dL (6.05 mmol/L), respectively; 17.3% of the study population had diagnosed diabetes. Glycated albumin, fructosamine, and 1,5-AG were more strongly correlated with Hb A(1c) compared with fasting glucose (all P values <0.05). Nonlinear models provided the best fit for describing the relationships of the alternative markers to Hb A(1c). When diabetes was defined by an Hb A(1c) ≥6.5%, fructosamine (AUC 0.83; 95% CI, 0.79-0.87) and glycated albumin (AUC 0.87; 95% CI, 0.83-0.90) performed comparably to fasting glucose (AUC 0.83; 95% CI, 0.79-0.87), while 1,5-AG performed worse (AUC 0.74; 95% CI, 0.69-0.78) for identifying cases of undiagnosed diabetes. CONCLUSIONS Fructosamine and glycated albumin may be useful adjuncts to Hb A(1c) and fasting glucose. Future studies should examine these markers in situations in which fasting glucose or Hb A(1c) measurements are invalid or not available.