Stephen S. Morse

Health care workers' ability and willingness to report to duty during catastrophic disasters.

Catastrophic disasters create surge capacity needs for health care systems. This is especially true in the urban setting because the high population density and reliance on complex urban infrastructures (e.g., mass transit systems and high rise buildings) could adversely affect the ability to meet surge capacity needs. To better understand responsiveness in this setting, we conducted a survey of health care workers (HCWs) (N=6,428) from 47 health care facilities in New York City and the surrounding metropolitan region to determine their ability and willingness to report to work during various catastrophic events. A range of facility types and sizes were represented in the sample. Results indicate that HCWs were most able to report to work for a mass casualty incident (MCI) (83%), environmental disaster (81%), and chemical event (71%) and least able to report during a smallpox epidemic (69%), radiological event (64%), sudden acute respiratory distress syndrome (SARS) outbreak (64%), or severe snow storm (49%). In terms of willingness, HCWs were most willing to report during a snow storm (80%), MCI (86%), and environmental disaster (84%) and least willing during a SARS outbreak (48%), radiological event (57%), smallpox epidemic (61%), and chemical event (68%). Barriers to ability included transportation problems, child care, eldercare, and pet care obligations. Barriers to willingness included fear and concern for family and self and personal health problems. The findings were consistent for all types of facilities. Importantly, many of the barriers identified are amenable to interventions.

Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis

Summary Most pandemics—eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza—originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.

Low sensitivity of rapid diagnostic test for influenza

The QuickVue Influenza A+B Test (Quidel) was used to test nasal swab specimens obtained from persons with influenza-like illness in 3 different populations. Compared with reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, the test sensitivity was low for all populations (median, 27%; range, 19%-32%), whereas the specificity was high (median, 97%; range, 96%-99.6%).

Public health surveillance and infectious disease detection.

Emerging infectious diseases, such as HIV/AIDS, SARS, and pandemic influenza, and the anthrax attacks of 2001, have demonstrated that we remain vulnerable to health threats caused by infectious diseases. The importance of strengthening global public health surveillance to provide early warning has been the primary recommendation of expert groups for at least the past 2 decades. However, despite improvements in the past decade, public health surveillance capabilities remain limited and fragmented, with uneven global coverage. Recent initiatives provide hope of addressing this issue, and new technological and conceptual advances could, for the first time, place capability for global surveillance within reach. Such advances include the revised International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) and the use of new data sources and methods to improve global coverage, sensitivity, and timeliness, which show promise for providing capabilities to extend and complement the existing infrastructure. One example is syndromic surveillance, using nontraditional and often automated data sources. Over the past 20 years, other initiatives, including ProMED-mail, GPHIN, and HealthMap, have demonstrated new mechanisms for acquiring surveillance data. In 2009 the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) began the Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) program, which includes the PREDICT project, to build global capacity for surveillance of novel infections that have pandemic potential (originating in wildlife and at the animal-human interface) and to develop a framework for risk assessment. Improved understanding of factors driving infectious disease emergence and new technological capabilities in modeling, diagnostics and pathogen identification, and communications, such as using the increasing global coverage of cellphones for public health surveillance, can further enhance global surveillance.

Acquired immunodeficiency without evidence of infection with human immunodeficiency virus types 1 and 2

There have been three published cases of acquired immunodeficiency in which no evidence for infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) types 1 and 2 was found. We have identified five other individuals, from the New York City area (four who have known risk factors for HIV infection), with profound CD4 depletion and clinical syndromes consistent with definitions of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or AIDS-related complex. None had evidence of HIV-1, 2 infection, as judged by multiple serologies over several years, standard viral co-cultures for HIV p24 Gag antigen, and proviral DNA amplification by polymerase chain reaction.

Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on URIs and Influenza in Crowded, Urban Households:

Objectives. We compared the impact of three household interventions—education, education with alcohol-based hand sanitizer, and education with hand sanitizer and face masks—on incidence and secondary transmission of upper respiratory infections (URIs) and influenza, knowledge of transmission of URIs, and vaccination rates. Methods. A total of 509 primarily Hispanic households participated. Participants reported symptoms twice weekly, and nasal swabs were collected from those with an influenza-like illness (ILI). Households were followed for up to 19 months and home visits were made at least every two months. Results. We recorded 5,034 URIs, of which 669 cases reported ILIs and 78 were laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza. Demographic factors significantly associated with infection rates included age, gender, birth location, education, and employment. The Hand Sanitizer group was significantly more likely to report that no household member had symptoms (p<0.01), but there were no significant differences in rates of infection by intervention group in multivariate analyses. Knowledge improved significantly more in the Hand Sanitizer group (p<0.0001). The proportion of households that reported ≥50% of members receiving influenza vaccine increased during the study (p<0.001). Despite the fact that compliance with mask wearing was poor, mask wearing as well as increased crowding, lower education levels of caretakers, and index cases 0–5 years of age (compared with adults) were associated with significantly lower secondary transmission rates (all p<0.02). Conclusions. In this population, there was no detectable additional benefit of hand sanitizer or face masks over targeted education on overall rates of URIs, but mask wearing was associated with reduced secondary transmission and should be encouraged during outbreak situations. During the study period, community concern about methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was occurring, perhaps contributing to the use of hand sanitizer in the Education control group, and diluting the interventions measurable impact.

Using satellite images of environmental changes to predict infectious disease outbreaks.

Recent events clearly illustrate a continued vulnerability of large populations to infectious diseases, which is related to our changing human-constructed and natural environments. A single person with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in 2007 provided a wake-up call to the United States and global public health infrastructure, as the health professionals and the public realized that todays ease of airline travel can potentially expose hundreds of persons to an untreatable disease associated with an infectious agent. Ease of travel, population increase, population displacement, pollution, agricultural activity, changing socioeconomic structures, and international conflicts worldwide have each contributed to infectious disease events. Today, however, nothing is larger in scale, has more potential for long-term effects, and is more uncertain than the effects of climate change on infectious disease outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. We discuss advances in our ability to predict these events and, in particular, the critical role that satellite imaging could play in mounting an effective response.

Research findings from nonpharmaceutical intervention studies for pandemic influenza and current gaps in the research.

In June 2006, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a request for applications to identify, improve, and evaluate the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)-strategies other than vaccines and antiviral medications-to mitigate the spread of pandemic influenza within communities and across international borders (RFA-CI06-010). These studies have provided major contributions to seasonal and pandemic influenza knowledge. Nonetheless, key concerns were identified related to the acceptability and protective efficacy of NPIs. Large-scale intervention studies conducted over multiple influenza epidemics, as well as smaller studies in controlled laboratory settings, are needed to address the gaps in the research on transmission and mitigation of influenza in the community setting. The current novel influenza A (H1N1) pandemic underscores the importance of influenza research.

Effectiveness of an emergency preparedness training program for public health nurses in New York City.

A public health workforce that is competent to respond to emergencies is extremely important. We report on the impact of a training program designed to prepare public health nurses to respond appropriately to emergencies. The program focused on the basic public health emergency preparedness competencies and the emergency response role of public health workers employed by the New York City School Department of Health and Mental Hygiene School Health Program. The evaluation methods included pre/post-testing followed by a repeat post-test one month after the program. The program resulted in positive shifts in both knowledge and emergency response attitudes.

Dead or alive: animal sampling during Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks in humans

There are currently no widely accepted animal surveillance guidelines for human Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF) outbreak investigations to identify potential sources of Ebolavirus (EBOV) spillover into humans and other animals. Animal field surveillance during and following an outbreak has several purposes, from helping identify the specific animal source of a human case to guiding control activities by describing the spatial and temporal distribution of wild circulating EBOV, informing public health efforts, and contributing to broader EHF research questions. Since 1976, researchers have sampled over 10,000 individual vertebrates from areas associated with human EHF outbreaks and tested for EBOV or antibodies. Using field surveillance data associated with EHF outbreaks, this review provides guidance on animal sampling for resource-limited outbreak situations, target species, and in some cases which diagnostics should be prioritized to rapidly assess the presence of EBOV in animal reservoirs. In brief, EBOV detection was 32.7% (18/55) for carcasses (animals found dead) and 0.2% (13/5309) for live captured animals. Our review indicates that for the purposes of identifying potential sources of transmission from animals to humans and isolating suspected virus in an animal in outbreak situations, (1) surveillance of free-ranging non-human primate mortality and morbidity should be a priority, (2) any wildlife morbidity or mortality events should be investigated and may hold the most promise for locating virus or viral genome sequences, (3) surveillance of some bat species is worthwhile to isolate and detect evidence of exposure, and (4) morbidity, mortality, and serology studies of domestic animals should prioritize dogs and pigs and include testing for virus and previous exposure.