Steve Ellis

Cancer Risks for BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers: Results From Prospective Analysis of EMBRACE

BACKGROUND Reliable estimates of cancer risk are critical for guiding management of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. The aims of this study were to derive penetrance estimates for breast cancer, ovarian cancer, and contralateral breast cancer in a prospective series of mutation carriers and to assess how these risks are modified by common breast cancer susceptibility alleles. METHODS Prospective cancer risks were estimated using a cohort of 978 BRCA1 and 909 BRCA2 carriers from the United Kingdom. Nine hundred eighty-eight women had no breast or ovarian cancer diagnosis at baseline, 1509 women were unaffected by ovarian cancer, and 651 had been diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer. Cumulative risks were obtained using Kaplan-Meier estimates. Associations between cancer risk and covariables of interest were evaluated using Cox regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS The average cumulative risks by age 70 years for BRCA1 carriers were estimated to be 60% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 44% to 75%) for breast cancer, 59% (95% CI = 43% to 76%) for ovarian cancer, and 83% (95% CI = 69% to 94%) for contralateral breast cancer. For BRCA2 carriers, the corresponding risks were 55% (95% CI = 41% to 70%) for breast cancer, 16.5% (95% CI = 7.5% to 34%) for ovarian cancer, and 62% (95% CI = 44% to 79.5%) for contralateral breast cancer. BRCA2 carriers in the highest tertile of risk, defined by the joint genotype distribution of seven single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with breast cancer risk, were at statistically significantly higher risk of developing breast cancer than those in the lowest tertile (hazard ratio = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.2 to 14.5; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS Prospective risk estimates confirm that BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers are at high risk of developing breast, ovarian, and contralateral breast cancer. Our results confirm findings from retrospective studies that common breast cancer susceptibility alleles in combination are predictive of breast cancer risk for BRCA2 carriers.

Germline BRCA Mutations Are Associated With Higher Risk of Nodal Involvement, Distant Metastasis, and Poor Survival Outcomes in Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE To analyze the baseline clinicopathologic characteristics of prostate tumors with germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) mutations and the prognostic value of those mutations on prostate cancer (PCa) outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS This study analyzed the tumor features and outcomes of 2,019 patients with PCa (18 BRCA1 carriers, 61 BRCA2 carriers, and 1,940 noncarriers). The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the associations between BRCA1/2 status and other PCa prognostic factors with overall survival (OS), cause-specific OS (CSS), CSS in localized PCa (CSS_M0), metastasis-free survival (MFS), and CSS from metastasis (CSS_M1). RESULTS PCa with germline BRCA1/2 mutations were more frequently associated with Gleason ≥ 8 (P = .00003), T3/T4 stage (P = .003), nodal involvement (P = .00005), and metastases at diagnosis (P = .005) than PCa in noncarriers. CSS was significantly longer in noncarriers than in carriers (15.7 v 8.6 years, multivariable analyses [MVA] P = .015; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.8). For localized PCa, 5-year CSS and MFS were significantly higher in noncarriers (96% v 82%; MVA P = .01; HR = 2.6%; and 93% v 77%; MVA P = .009; HR = 2.7, respectively). Subgroup analyses confirmed the poor outcomes in BRCA2 patients, whereas the role of BRCA1 was not well defined due to the limited size and follow-up in this subgroup. CONCLUSION Our results confirm that BRCA1/2 mutations confer a more aggressive PCa phenotype with a higher probability of nodal involvement and distant metastasis. BRCA mutations are associated with poor survival outcomes and this should be considered for tailoring clinical management of these patients.

Risks of breast, ovarian, and contralateral breast cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

Importance The clinical management of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers requires accurate, prospective cancer risk estimates. Objectives To estimate age-specific risks of breast, ovarian, and contralateral breast cancer for mutation carriers and to evaluate risk modification by family cancer history and mutation location. Design, Setting, and Participants Prospective cohort study of 6036 BRCA1 and 3820 BRCA2 female carriers (5046 unaffected and 4810 with breast or ovarian cancer or both at baseline) recruited in 1997-2011 through the International BRCA1/2 Carrier Cohort Study, the Breast Cancer Family Registry and the Kathleen Cuningham Foundation Consortium for Research into Familial Breast Cancer, with ascertainment through family clinics (94%) and population-based studies (6%). The majority were from large national studies in the United Kingdom (EMBRACE), the Netherlands (HEBON), and France (GENEPSO). Follow-up ended December 2013; median follow-up was 5 years. Exposures BRCA1/2 mutations, family cancer history, and mutation location. Main Outcomes and Measures Annual incidences, standardized incidence ratios, and cumulative risks of breast, ovarian, and contralateral breast cancer. Results Among 3886 women (median age, 38 years; interquartile range [IQR], 30-46 years) eligible for the breast cancer analysis, 5066 women (median age, 38 years; IQR, 31-47 years) eligible for the ovarian cancer analysis, and 2213 women (median age, 47 years; IQR, 40-55 years) eligible for the contralateral breast cancer analysis, 426 were diagnosed with breast cancer, 109 with ovarian cancer, and 245 with contralateral breast cancer during follow-up. The cumulative breast cancer risk to age 80 years was 72% (95% CI, 65%-79%) for BRCA1 and 69% (95% CI, 61%-77%) for BRCA2 carriers. Breast cancer incidences increased rapidly in early adulthood until ages 30 to 40 years for BRCA1 and until ages 40 to 50 years for BRCA2 carriers, then remained at a similar, constant incidence (20-30 per 1000 person-years) until age 80 years. The cumulative ovarian cancer risk to age 80 years was 44% (95% CI, 36%-53%) for BRCA1 and 17% (95% CI, 11%-25%) for BRCA2 carriers. For contralateral breast cancer, the cumulative risk 20 years after breast cancer diagnosis was 40% (95% CI, 35%-45%) for BRCA1 and 26% (95% CI, 20%-33%) for BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio [HR] for comparing BRCA2 vs BRCA1, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.47-0.82; P=.001 for difference). Breast cancer risk increased with increasing number of first- and second-degree relatives diagnosed as having breast cancer for both BRCA1 (HR for ≥2 vs 0 affected relatives, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.41-2.82; P<.001 for trend) and BRCA2 carriers (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.08-3.37; P=.02 for trend). Breast cancer risk was higher if mutations were located outside vs within the regions bounded by positions c.2282-c.4071 in BRCA1 (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.11-1.93; P=.007) and c.2831-c.6401 in BRCA2 (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.36-2.74; P<.001). Conclusions and Relevance These findings provide estimates of cancer risk based on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carrier status using prospective data collection and demonstrate the potential importance of family history and mutation location in risk assessment.

Tamoxifen and Risk of Contralateral Breast Cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

PURPOSE To determine whether adjuvant tamoxifen treatment for breast cancer (BC) is associated with reduced contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk for BRCA1 and/or BRCA2 mutation carriers. METHODS Analysis of pooled observational cohort data, self-reported at enrollment and at follow-up from the International BRCA1, and BRCA2 Carrier Cohort Study, Kathleen Cuningham Foundation Consortium for Research into Familial Breast Cancer, and Breast Cancer Family Registry. Eligible women were BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers diagnosed with unilateral BC since 1970 and no other invasive cancer or tamoxifen use before first BC. Hazard ratios (HRs) for CBC associated with tamoxifen use were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for year and age of diagnosis, country, and bilateral oophorectomy and censoring at contralateral mastectomy, death, or loss to follow-up. RESULTS Of 1,583 BRCA1 and 881 BRCA2 mutation carriers, 383 (24%) and 454 (52%), respectively, took tamoxifen after first BC diagnosis. There were 520 CBCs over 20,104 person-years of observation. The adjusted HR estimates were 0.38 (95% CI, 0.27 to 0.55) and 0.33 (95% CI, 0.22 to 0.50) for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, respectively. After left truncating at recruitment to the cohort, adjusted HR estimates were 0.58 (95% CI, 0.29 to 1.13) and 0.48 (95% CI, 0.22 to 1.05) based on 657 BRCA1 and 426 BRCA2 mutation carriers with 100 CBCs over 4,392 person-years of prospective follow-up. HRs did not differ by estrogen receptor status of the first BC (missing for 56% of cases). CONCLUSION This study provides evidence that tamoxifen use is associated with a reduction in CBC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Further follow-up of these cohorts will provide increased statistical power for future prospective analyses.

PhenoScanner: a database of human genotype–phenotype associations

Abstract Summary: PhenoScanner is a curated database of publicly available results from large-scale genetic association studies. This tool aims to facilitate ‘phenome scans’, the cross-referencing of genetic variants with many phenotypes, to help aid understanding of disease pathways and biology. The database currently contains over 350 million association results and over 10 million unique genetic variants, mostly single nucleotide polymorphisms. It is accompanied by a web-based tool that queries the database for associations with user-specified variants, providing results according to the same effect and non-effect alleles for each input variant. The tool provides the option of searching for trait associations with proxies of the input variants, calculated using the European samples from 1000 Genomes and Hapmap. Availability and Implementation: PhenoScanner is available at www.phenoscanner.medschl.cam.ac.uk. Contact: jrs95@medschl.cam.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Effect of BRCA Mutations on Metastatic Relapse and Cause-specific Survival After Radical Treatment for Localised Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND Germline BRCA mutations are associated with worse prostate cancer (PCa) outcomes; however, the most appropriate management for mutation carriers has not yet been investigated. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the response of BRCA carriers to conventional treatments for localised PCa by analysing metastasis-free survival (MFS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) following radical prostatectomy (RP) or external-beam radiation therapy (RT). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Tumour features and outcomes of 1302 patients with local/locally advanced PCa (including 67 BRCA mutation carriers) were analysed. RP was undergone by 535 patients (35 BRCA); 767 received RT (32 BRCA). Median follow-up was 64 mo. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Median survival and 3-, 5-, and 10-yr survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Generated survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. Cox regression analyses were used to assess the prognostic value of BRCA mutations. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS A total of 67 BRCA carriers and 1235 noncarriers were included. At 3, 5, and 10 yr after treatment, 97%, 94%, and 84% of noncarriers and 90%, 72%, and 50% of carriers were free from metastasis (p<0.001). The 3-, 5- and 10-yr CSS rates were significantly better in the noncarrier cohort (99%, 97%, and 85%, respectively) than in carriers (96%, 76%, and 61%, respectively; p<0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed BRCA mutations as an independent prognostic factor for MFS (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-4.03; p=0.002) and CSS (HR: 2.17; 95% CI, 1.16-4.07; p=0.016). CONCLUSIONS BRCA carriers had worse outcomes than noncarriers when conventionally treated for local/locally advanced PCa. PATIENT SUMMARY Prostate cancer patients with germline BRCA mutations had worse outcomes than noncarriers when conventionally treated with surgery or radiation therapy.

Germline Mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2 and Ten-Year Survival for Women Diagnosed with Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Purpose: To analyze the effect of germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 on mortality in patients with ovarian cancer up to 10 years after diagnosis. Experimental Design: We used unpublished survival time data for 2,242 patients from two case–control studies and extended survival time data for 4,314 patients from previously reported studies. All participants had been screened for deleterious germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2. Survival time was analyzed for the combined data using Cox proportional hazard models with BRCA1 and BRCA2 as time-varying covariates. Competing risks were analyzed using Fine and Gray model. Results: The combined 10-year overall survival rate was 30% [95% confidence interval (CI), 28%–31%] for non-carriers, 25% (95% CI, 22%–28%) for BRCA1 carriers, and 35% (95% CI, 30%–41%) for BRCA2 carriers. The HR for BRCA1 was 0.53 at time zero and increased over time becoming greater than one at 4.8 years. For BRCA2, the HR was 0.42 at time zero and increased over time (predicted to become greater than 1 at 10.5 years). The results were similar when restricted to 3,202 patients with high-grade serous tumors and to ovarian cancer–specific mortality. Conclusions: BRCA1/2 mutations are associated with better short-term survival, but this advantage decreases over time and in BRCA1 carriers is eventually reversed. This may have important implications for therapy of both primary and relapsed disease and for analysis of long-term survival in clinical trials of new agents, particularly those that are effective in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Clin Cancer Res; 21(3); 652–7. ©2014 AACR.

Lymphocyte Telomere Length Is Long in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers Regardless of Cancer-Affected Status

Background: Telomere length has been linked to risk of common diseases, including cancer, and has previously been proposed as a biomarker for cancer risk. Germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations predispose to breast, ovarian, and other cancer types. Methods: We investigated telomere length in BRCA mutation carriers and their non-carrier relatives and further examined whether telomere length is a modifier of cancer risk in mutation carriers. We measured mean telomere length in DNA extracted from whole blood using high-throughput quantitative PCR. Participants were from the EMBRACE study in United Kingdom and Eire (n = 4,822) and comprised BRCA1 (n = 1,628) and BRCA2 (n = 1,506) mutation carriers and their non-carrier relatives (n = 1,688). Results: We find no significant evidence that mean telomere length is associated with breast or ovarian cancer risk in BRCA mutation carriers. However, we find mutation carriers to have longer mean telomere length than their non-carrier relatives (all carriers vs. non-carriers, Ptrend = 0.0018), particularly in families with BRCA2 mutations (BRCA2 mutation carriers vs. all non-carriers, Ptrend = 0.0016). Conclusions: Our findings lend little support to the hypothesis that short mean telomere length predisposes to cancer. Conversely, our main and unexpected finding is that BRCA mutation carriers (regardless of cancer status) have longer telomeres than their non-mutation carrier, non–cancer-affected relatives. The longer telomere length in BRCA2 mutation carriers is consistent with its role in DNA damage response. Overall, it seems that increased telomere length may be a consequence of these mutations, but is not itself directly related to the increased cancer risk in carriers. Impact: The finding that mutation carriers have longer mean telomere lengths than their non-carrier relatives is unexpected but biologically plausible and could open up new lines of research into the functions of the BRCA proteins. To our knowledge, this is the largest study of telomere length in BRCA mutation carriers and their relatives. The null cancer-risk association supports recent large prospective studies of breast and ovarian cancer and indicates that mean telomere length would not be a useful biomarker in these cancers. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 23(6); 1018–24. ©2014 AACR.

Effect of germ-line BRCA mutations in biochemical relapse and survival after treatment for localized prostate cancer.

29 Background: Biochemical relapse after local treatment for prostate cancer (PCa) indicates recurrent disease and is associated with shorter cause-specific survival (CSS). Germline BRCA mutations are associated with worse PrCa outcomes. In this study, we analyzed biochemical-progression free survival (bPFS) after conventional treatments for localized PCa in a cohort of BRCA patients from the UK. Currently, BRCA1/2 carriers are treated with the same protocols used for non-carriers. METHODS In this retrospective case-control study, each BRCA carrier (10 BRCA1 and 34 BRCA2) treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) or external beam radiotherapy (RT) was matched with 3 non-carriers (NC) by: age at diagnosis (±5 yrs), TNM stage, Gleason score, presenting PSA, local treatment (RT or RP), androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and year of treatment (±5yrs). All NC were screened for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. Biochemical failure was reviewed according to ASTRO and NCCN criteria. The Kaplan-Meier method and a multivariate Cox regression model adjusted by matching factors were employed. RESULTS 176 patients (pts) were included. Median follow-up was 97 months (ms). Median age at diagnosis was 58.5 yrs (43-75). 80 pts received RT (16 BRCA2, 4 BRCA1, 60 NC) and 85% also received ADT≥6 ms. 96pts underwent RP (18 BRCA2, 6 BRCA1 and 72 NC). Following RT treatment, 5yrs-CSS was 96% in NC and 47% in BRCA carriers (p=2x10-5), whilst no difference was seen after RP (5yrs-CSS was 98.5% in NC vs 93.3% in BRCA). Five-years bFPFS after RT was 74% in NC and 24% in BRCA (p=0.002). No difference was observed in 5yrs-bPFS between BRCA carriers and NC treated with RP (52% vs 66% , p=0.346). The adjusted MVA (including tumour stage, local treatment, ADT and BRCA status) confirmed the independent prognostic value of BRCA status for bPFS and CSS. Among BRCA carriers, the independent risk was greater when the analysis was limited to BRCA2 pts . CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that BRCA carriers have worse local disease control than NC when conventionally treated with RT. No differences in bPFS were observed in pts treated with RP after >8 yrs median follow-up. These results may have implications for tailoring clinical management in these patients.

Oral contraceptive use and breast cancer risk: retrospective and prospective analyses from a BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carrier cohort study

Abstract Background For BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, the association between oral contraceptive preparation (OCP) use and breast cancer (BC) risk is still unclear. Methods Breast camcer risk associations were estimated from OCP data on 6030 BRCA1 and 3809 BRCA2 mutation carriers using age-dependent Cox regression, stratified by study and birth cohort. Prospective, left-truncated retrospective and full-cohort retrospective analyses were performed. Results For BRCA1 mutation carriers, OCP use was not associated with BC risk in prospective analyses (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.75 to 1.56), but in the left-truncated and full-cohort retrospective analyses, risks were increased by 26% (95% CI = 6% to 51%) and 39% (95% CI = 23% to 58%), respectively. For BRCA2 mutation carriers, OCP use was associated with BC risk in prospective analyses (HR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.03 to 2.97), but retrospective analyses were inconsistent (left-truncated: HR = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.85 to 1.33; full cohort: HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.28 to 1.81). There was evidence of increasing risk with duration of use, especially before the first full-term pregnancy (BRCA1: both retrospective analyses, P < .001 and P = .001, respectively; BRCA2: full retrospective analysis, P = .002). Conclusions Prospective analyses did not show that past use of OCP is associated with an increased BC risk for BRCA1 mutation carriers in young middle-aged women (40–50 years). For BRCA2 mutation carriers, a causal association is also not likely at those ages. Findings between retrospective and prospective analyses were inconsistent and could be due to survival bias or a true association for younger women who were underrepresented in the prospective cohort. Given the uncertain safety of long-term OCP use for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, indications other than contraception should be avoided and nonhormonal contraceptive methods should be discussed.