Steve Hatfield-Dodds

Governance and the Capacity to Manage Resilience in Regional Social-Ecological Systems

The sustainability of regional development can be usefully explored through several different lenses. In situations in which uncertainties and change are key features of the ecological landscape and social organization, critical factors for sustainability are resilience, the capacity to cope and adapt, and the conservation of sources of innovation and renewal. However, interventions in social-ecological systems with the aim of altering resilience immediately confront issues of governance. Who decides what should be made resilient to what? For whom is resilience to be managed, and for what purpose? In this paper we draw on the insights from a diverse set of case studies from around the world in which members of the Resilience Alliance have observed or engaged with sustainability problems at regional scales. Our central question is: How do certain attributes of governance function in society to enhance the capacity to manage resilience? Three specific propositions were explored: (1) participation builds trust, and deliberation leads to the shared understanding needed to mobilize and self-organize; (2) polycentric and multilayered institutions improve the fit between knowledge, action, and social-ecological contexts in ways that allow societies to respond more adaptively at appropriate levels; and (3) accountable authorities that also pursue just distributions of benefits and involuntary risks enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups and society as a whole. Some support was found for parts of all three propositions. In exploring the sustainability of regional social-ecological systems, we are usually faced with a set of ecosystem goods and services that interact with a collection of users with different technologies, interests, and levels of power. In this situation in our roles as analysts, facilitators, change agents, or stakeholders, we not only need to ask: The resilience of what, to what? We must also ask: For whom?

Saving freshwater from salts

Ion-specific standards are needed to protect biodiversity Many human activities—like agriculture and resource extraction—are increasing the total concentration of dissolved inorganic salts (i.e., salinity) in freshwaters. Increasing salinity can have adverse effects on human health (1); increase the costs of water treatment for human consumption; and damage infrastructure [e.g., amounting to

Australia is ‘free to choose’ economic growth and falling environmental pressures

700 million per year in the Border Rivers catchment, Australia (2)]. It can also reduce freshwater biodiversity (3); alter ecosystem functions (4); and affect economic well-being by altering ecosystem goods and services (e.g., fisheries collapse). Yet water-quality legislation and regulations that target salinity typically focus on drinking water and irrigation water, which does not automatically protect biodiversity. For example, specific electrical conductivities (a proxy for salinity) of 2 mS/cm can be acceptable for drinking and irrigation but could extirpate many freshwater insect species (3). We argue that salinity standards for specific ions and ion mixtures, not just for total salinity, should be developed and legally enforced to protect freshwater life and ecosystem services. We identify barriers to setting such standards and recommend management guidelines.

Modelling Australian land use competition and ecosystem services with food price feedbacks at high spatial resolution

Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth’s ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy–water–food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.

Saving freshwater from salts : Ion-specific standards are needed to protect biodiversity

In a globalised world, land use change outlooks are influenced by both locally heterogeneous land attributes and world markets. We demonstrate the importance of high resolution land heterogeneity representation in understanding local impacts of future global scenarios with carbon markets and land competition influencing food prices. A methodologically unique Australian continental model is presented with bottom-up parcel scale granularity in land use change, food, carbon, water, and biodiversity ecosystem service supply determination, and partial equilibrium food price impacts of land competition. We show that food price feedbacks produce modest aggregate national land use and ecosystem service supply changes. However, high resolution results show amplified land use change and ecosystem service impact in some places and muted impacts in other areas relative to national averages. We conclude that fine granularity modelling of geographic diversity produces local land use change and ecosystem service impact insights not discernible with other approaches. We modeled Australian land use change and ecosystem service responses to global scenarios.The model features a novel approach to very high resolution land heterogeneity representation.To demonstrate, we model how food price feedbacks of land competition differ spatially.Modest land use change and ecosystem service impacts are observed in aggregate for Australia.High resolution impacts vary from large to minuscule depending on local land heterogeneity.

Rising tides: adaptation policy alternatives for coastal residential buildings in Australia

Ion-specific standards are needed to protect biodiversity Many human activities—like agriculture and resource extraction—are increasing the total concentration of dissolved inorganic salts (i.e., salinity) in freshwaters. Increasing salinity can have adverse effects on human health (1); increase the costs of water treatment for human consumption; and damage infrastructure [e.g., amounting to

Climate change: All in the timing

700 million per year in the Border Rivers catchment, Australia (2)]. It can also reduce freshwater biodiversity (3); alter ecosystem functions (4); and affect economic well-being by altering ecosystem goods and services (e.g., fisheries collapse). Yet water-quality legislation and regulations that target salinity typically focus on drinking water and irrigation water, which does not automatically protect biodiversity. For example, specific electrical conductivities (a proxy for salinity) of 2 mS/cm can be acceptable for drinking and irrigation but could extirpate many freshwater insect species (3). We argue that salinity standards for specific ions and ion mixtures, not just for total salinity, should be developed and legally enforced to protect freshwater life and ecosystem services. We identify barriers to setting such standards and recommend management guidelines.

WATER. Saving freshwater from salts.

In this work, a risk-based assessment method and benefit-cost analysis to support policy decisions for adapting Australian coastal residential buildings to future coastal inundation hazard is presented. Future coastal inundation is mainly influenced by storm surge and rising sea level. The sea level rises projected by the A1FI, A1B and B1 emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are considered. The effects of economic and population growth are accounted for by three urban development scenarios: (a) business as usual, (b) urban consolidation and (c) regional development. The adaptation policy actions investigated include a ‘protect’ stance (involving the construction of seawalls), an ‘accommodate’ stance that mandates raising house floors to a certain height (e.g. at heights of 100-year events) and an ‘avoid’ stance that limits new developments in hazardous areas. Policy stances classified as reactive (i.e. action taken after damage being incurred) and anticipatory (i.e. action taken anticipating what will happen) are developed for asset investment choices. In general, adaptation costs are an order of magnitude lower than benefits gained from avoided damages. The results highlight that adaptation action for coastal inundation has a no-regrets character and provides a strong case for reform to ensure that Australia-wide adaptation opportunities are realised.

Pathways to deep decarbonization in Australia

How influential are the various factors involved in curbing global warming? A study finds that the timing of emissions reduction has the largest impact on the probability of limiting temperature increases to 2 °C. See Letter p.79 Uncertainties in the costs of climate change mitigation are underpinned by uncertainties in geophysics, technology, social systems and politics. Usually the geophysical uncertainties are assessed separately from the other three, making an overall assessment of the main uncertainties difficult. Here, Joeri Rogelj and colleagues use an integrated modelling approach to calculate the mitigation costs of staying below a certain global warming threshold, such as the much-discussed 2 °C, as affected by the four main uncertainties. They find that political uncertainties have by far the largest impact on the cost distribution. From their results the authors conclude that we would have to adopt a high-efficiency, low-energy-demand course well before 2020, as well as mitigation efforts, if the 2 °C objective were to become a reality.

Decoupling global environmental pressure and economic growth: scenarios for energy use, materials use and carbon emissions

Ion-specific standards are needed to protect biodiversity Many human activities—like agriculture and resource extraction—are increasing the total concentration of dissolved inorganic salts (i.e., salinity) in freshwaters. Increasing salinity can have adverse effects on human health (1); increase the costs of water treatment for human consumption; and damage infrastructure [e.g., amounting to