Steven Barnett

Operational Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Oil-Producing Countries

Oil-producing countries face challenges arising from the fact that oil revenue is exhaustible, volatile, and uncertain, and largely originates from abroad. Reflecting these challenges, the paper proposes some important general principles for the formulation and assessment of fiscal policy in these countries. The main findings can be summarized in some key guidelines: the non-oil balance should feature prominently in the formulation of fiscal policy; it should generally be adjusted gradually; the government should strive to accumulate substantial financial assets over the period of oil production; and, where necessary, strategies should aim at breaking procyclical fiscal responses to volatile oil prices.

Nonlinear response of firm investment to Q:: Testing a model of convex and non-convex adjustment costs1

Abstract Abel and Eberly (1994) study optimal investment behavior in the presence of flow fixed costs, proportional costs and convex costs. A clear prediction is that investment will alternate between regimes of insensitivity and responsiveness to q separated by unknown threshold levels of q . At the firm level, we find evidence for different regimes of sensitivity to q but not for a regime of zero sensitivity. Our finding that investment has a nonlinear relationship to q is important because it implies an elasticity of aggregate investment to q (and fundamentals) that is high and variable over time.

Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impact of Privatization

Privatization has been a key element of structural reform in many developing and transition economies during the last decade. This paper examines the fiscal and macroeconomic issues involved in the privatization of nonfinancial public enterprises in these economies. It considers issues such as the factors determining the proceeds from privatization and the amount accruing to the budget, the uses of proceeds, the impact of privatization on the budget and macroeconomic aggregates, and the privatization component of IMF-supported programs. The empirical evidence draws on case study countries that reflect geographical diversity and are representative of a range of privatization experience in developing and transition economies.

Stabilization and Savings Funds for Nonrenewable Resources

This chapter examines whether funds can help countries pursue good macroeconomic, and especially fiscal policies, and consequent design issues. Nonrenewable resource funds (NRF) have been suggested as a way of dealing with the effects of price variability, making it easier to put revenues aside when prices are high so that they can be made available to maintain expenditures when prices are low. Funds may also serve as mechanisms to allow part of the nonrenewable resource wealth to be shared by future generations. A detailed evaluation of country experience suggests that NRFs have been associated with a variety of operating rules and fiscal policy experience. In several cases, rules have been bypassed or changed and they do not themselves seem to have effectively constrained spending, and the integration of the funds operations with overall fiscal policy has often proven problematic. Whether the political economy arguments for an NRF outweigh the potential disadvantages will need to be considered based on the situation in each country.

Evidenceon the Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impact of Privatization

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between privatization and measures of fiscal and macroeconomic performance. One of the main findings is that privatization proceeds transferred to the budget tend to be saved. Specifically, they are largely used to reduce domestic financing, with little evidence that they are used to finance a larger deficit. However, by construction, this part of the study is restricted to privatization proceeds transferred to the budget, leaving open the question of what happens to those proceeds not transferred to the budget. The other main finding is that total privatization (as opposed to just the proceeds transferred to the budget) is correlated with an improvement in macroeconomic performance as manifested in higher real GDP growth and lower unemployment. However, this result needs to be interpreted cautiously as the evidence is not sufficient to establish causality.

China: Does Government Health and Education Spending Boost Consumption?

Consumption in China is unusually low and has continued to decline as a share of GDP over the past decade. A key policy question is how to reverse this trend, and rebalance growth away from reliance on exports and investment and toward consumption. This paper investigates whether the sizable increase in government social spending in recent years lowered precautionary saving and increased consumption. The main findings are that spending on health, but not education, had an impact on household behavior. The impact, moreover, is large. A one yuan increase in government health spending is associated with a two yuan increase in urban household consumption.

A NEW LOOK AT FIRM MARKET VALUE, INVESTMENT, AND ADJUSTMENT COSTS

We demonstrate that the conventional practice of running firm investment regressions on beginning-of-period average Q cannot recover structural parameters related to adjustment costs. We propose two new methods of estimating these structural parameters by using financial market information (average Qs). We find that the sensitivity of investment to Q is more than ten times higher than estimated in conventional Q regressions. Furthermore, a firms investment rate is more responsive to expected future Q the higher the level of this Q; i.e., investment is a convex function of fundamentals. The cost of installing new capital is estimated to be approximately 10 to 13 of the total investment cost (including purchase) at usual rates of investment.

Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China

China weathered the global financial crisis better than most, thanks to a large and timely stimulus. This stimulus, however, was mainly in the form of off-budget infrastructure spending and thus not visible in the headline fiscal data. We construct a time series for the augmented fiscal deficit and debt—augmented to include off-budget activity—that better illustrates the counter-cyclical role of fiscal policy. The results also show that the augmented fiscal deficit and debt are both considerably higher than the headline government data suggest. Nonetheless, at around 45 percent of GDP, the augmented debt is still at a manageable level.

Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia: Understanding the Roller Coaster

Inflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising given Mongolia’s geography, are determined primarily by local supply conditions, highly seasonal, and subject to large but short-lived shocks (usually weather related). Nonetheless, demand factors are also found to be significant in explaining price movements and empirical evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in government wages, for example, would push up underlying inflation by 1 percentage point. So, while inflation will remain volatile due to agricultural shocks, there is space for macroeconomic stabilization policy to help reduce inflation volatility.