Steven C. Blank

Producers get Squeezed up the Farming Food Chain: A Theory of Crop Portfolio Composition and Land Use

There are a number of seemingly contradictory trends in the structure of American agriculture. For example, total revenues from agriculture in the United States continue to increase nearly every year, yet the total acreage of land in farms continues to decrease. This article presents an explanation using portfolio theory that is consistent both with the trends and with rational behavior of individual producers. The results have implications for commodity markets, land prices, and, in the long run, for the economic viability of American production agriculture.

Evaluating the Integration of Contiguous Discontinuous Markets

This paper applies the concepts of structural models of markets, market integration, and market discontinuity to show that discontinuous markets alter the integration characteristics of continuous markets. When analyzing systems of contiguous markets, some of which are discontinuous, it appears that the continuous markets are less well integrated when the discontinuous markets are operating than when they are not operating.

Agricultural Profits and Farm Household Wealth: A Farm-level Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections

This study examines the relationship between agricultural profits and farm household wealth across locations and farm sizes in U.S. agriculture. A multiperiod household model is used to develop hypotheses for testing. Results indicate that farmland has out-performed nonfarm investments over the past decade. Thus, households may want to keep their farmland to build wealth, even if it requires them to earn off-farm income. The analysis implies that decision will be made based on farm household wealth factors having little to do with agriculture.

Whimsical aggregation of temporal data, market identification, and fragile results.

One of the most common problems faced by analysts of agribusiness markets is that available data are aggregated to a degree that obscures the underlying decision process. This article reminds analysts of the implications of temporal data aggregation for market identification and its effects on the robustness of empirical results. Also, three major commodity market price series are analyzed to demonstrate how aggregation can affect empirical results. Finally, guidelines are suggested for selecting the appropriate level of aggregation for empirical problems.

Government policy cross effects: The cotton and dairy programs' influence on alfalfa hay markets

To illustrate the magnitude of government policy impacts on nonprogram products, estimates are presented of the 1986-1987 crop year effects of both the 1986 cotton and dairy programs on the Arizona alfalfa hay market. These policy “cross effects” are calculated from simulation results of a simple econometric model. The estimated impact of

Designing Expert Systems for Effective Delivery of Extension Programming

8.91 per ton represents a nine percent reduction in gross unit revenues from hay.

A Decade of Decline and Evolution in Agricultural Economics Enrollments and Programs, 1985–96

Expert Systems offer potential to be important additions to the current methods used to deliver extension programming to clients. This paper discusses the design of such systems from the viewpoint of learning theory and cost effectiveness.

FLCs: An analysis of labor management transfers among California agricultural producers

North American university departments of agricultural economics were surveyed regarding enrollment, curricula, budget and related issues. Average undergraduate enrollments declined over the last eleven years, reversing the upward trend of the previous decade. Graduate enrollments have remained remarkably stable for the past two decades. In response to declining enrollments and budgets, many departments have changed their name and/or curriculum to attract domestic students who are not interested in production agriculture. Colleges of agriculture have, on average, increased their total enrollments by diversifying their programs. This reverses a trend of declining enrollment that had existed for nearly two decades.

The new risk environment in California agriculture

The Immigration and Control Act has been ineffective at controlling the flow of illegal immigration. Instead, it has led to the expansion of farm labor contractor (FLC) usage. Using a survey of California growers, this study analyzes the patterns of increased FLC utilization across regions, commodities, and grower characteristics. The growers perception about the relative costs and riskiness of FLC versus directly hired labor are found to be the most significant explanatory variables. It is argued that the use of FLCs is expanding beyond its traditional niche of supplying a reliable labor source to incorporate more administrative, regulatory compliance, and risk management activities.

THE INFLUENCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE ON GRAIN ELEVATOR PRICING EFFICIENCY

A perceived increase in the risk environment of agricultural production in California is found to have significant economic implications. Using a portfolio model, hypotheses are derived concerning the reaction of individual producers to the shift in risk. Survey results indicate that agricultural producers are reacting in a manner consistent with a hypothesized ltransition periodr that could last several years before a new equilibrium is found. Unfortunately, the timing of this transition may be adding to the recessionary conditions within Californias economy.