Steven E. Moss

An Empirical Test of Butler's Resort Product Life Cycle: Forecasting Casino Winnings

This article presents a product life cycle and forecasting methodology for both emerging and established casino markets. Gross gaming revenues and win per square foot per day were forecasted using classical time-series decomposition with polynomial regression. The model supports the position that casinos conform to Butlers S-shaped product life cycle for resorts, suggesting that the rapid increases in early-period gaming revenues will not continue without intervention to rejuvenate the industry.

The Life Cycle of a Terrorism Crisis: Impact on Tourist Travel

The impact of terrorist events on various business sectors has been widely publicized, and the tourism travel industry has been one of the most impacted industries. Prior work has shown that air travel is affected by a terrorist incident within the region in which it occurred. This research is the first to model the magnitude of the episode, the duration of the effect, and the shape of life the cycle. Two terrorism events that affected tourist air travel are analyzed: 9/11 and the Madrid train bombings. Our findings suggest that the impact on tourist air travel from these catastrophes follow scalable and fad life cycles, respectively. These results have significant implications for the tourism travel industry, which are identified and discussed.

An empirical test of the Olympic tourism legacy

ABSTRACT International tourism legacies are a key justification for hosting the Olympics. Although strong theoretical arguments have been made to support the tourism legacy, empirically measuring the effect has been problematic. Strong arguments for enhancing the legacy effect through the proper leveraging of the Olympics by means such as positive media coverage exist. This research empirically tests for the legacy effect and whether leveraging the Olympics by exposing potential tourists to more media enhances the legacy effect. The data used in this research are monthly international air passenger arrivals for nine Olympic host cities. A time series methodology that controls for problems noted in prior studies such as pre-existing trends, external events, seasonality, and crowding out is incorporated. The results show little evidence to support the legacy effect in the short run.