Steven Forsythe

Voluntary medical male circumcision: modeling the impact and cost of expanding male circumcision for HIV prevention in eastern and southern Africa.

Emmanuel Njeuhmeli and colleagues estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult medical male circumcision in 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, finding that reaching 80% coverage and maintaining it until 2025 would avert 3.36 million new HIV infections.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: An Introduction to the Cost, Impact, and Challenges of Accelerated Scaling Up

Catherine Hankins, Steven Forsythe, and Emmanuel Njeuhmeli provide an overview of the “Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention: The Cost, Impact, and Challenges of Accelerated Scale-Up in Southern and Eastern Africa” Collection, calling for leadership and vision to help halt the HIV epidemic.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Logistics, Commodities, and Waste Management Requirements for Scale-Up of Services

Dianna Edgil and colleagues evaluate the supply chain and waste management costs needed to deliver mobile medical male circumcision services to 152,000 men in Swaziland, finding that per-procedure costs almost double when these factors are taken into account.

Cost analysis of integrating the PrePex medical device into a voluntary medical male circumcision program in Zimbabwe.

Background Fourteen African countries are scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention. Several devices that might offer alternatives to the three WHO-approved surgical VMMC procedures have been evaluated for use in adults. One such device is PrePex, which was prequalified by the WHO in May 2013. We utilized data from one of the PrePex field studies undertaken in Zimbabwe to identify cost considerations for introducing PrePex into the existing surgical circumcision program. Methods and Findings We evaluated the cost drivers and overall unit cost of VMMC at a site providing surgical VMMC as a routine service (“routine surgery site”) and at a site that had added PrePex VMMC procedures to routine surgical VMMC as part of a research study (“mixed study site”). We examined the main cost drivers and modeled hypothetical scenarios with varying ratios of surgical to PrePex circumcisions, different levels of site utilization, and a range of device prices. The unit costs per VMMC for the routine surgery and mixed study sites were

Cost drivers for voluntary medical male circumcision using primary source data from sub-Saharan Africa.

56 and

Modeling HIV Vaccines in Brazil: Assessing the Impact of a Future HIV Vaccine on Reducing New Infections, Mortality and Number of People Receiving ARV

61, respectively. The two greatest contributors to unit price at both sites were consumables and staff. In the hypothetical scenarios, the unit cost increased as site utilization decreased, as the ratio of PrePex to surgical VMMC increased, and as device price increased. Conclusions VMMC unit costs for routine surgery and mixed study sites were similar. Low service utilization was projected to result in the greatest increases in unit price. Countries that wish to incorporate PrePex into their circumcision programs should plan to maximize staff utilization and ensure that sites function at maximum capacity to achieve the lowest unit cost. Further costing studies will be necessary once routine implementation of PrePex-based circumcision is established.

The Cost of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in South Africa

Background As voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs scale up, there is a pressing need for information about the important cost drivers, and potential efficiency gains. We examine those cost drivers here, and estimate the potential efficiency gains through an econometric model. Methods and Findings We examined the main cost drivers (i.e., personnel and consumables) associated with providing VMMC in sub-Saharan Africa along a number of dimensions, including facility type and service provider. Primary source facility level data from Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia were utilized throughout. We estimated the efficiency gains by econometrically estimating a cost function in order to calculate the impact of scale and other relevant factors. Personnel and consumables were estimated at 36% and 28%, respectively, of total costs across countries. Economies of scale (EOS) is estimated to be eight at the median volume of VMMCs performed, and EOS falls from 23 at the 25th percentile volume of VMMCs performed to 5.1 at the 75th percentile. Conclusions The analysis suggests that there is significant room for efficiency improvement as indicated by declining EOS as VMMC volume increases. The scale of the fall in EOS as VMMC volume increases suggests that we are still at the ascension phase of the scale-up of VMMC, where continuing to add new sites results in additional start-up costs as well. A key aspect of improving efficiency is task sharing VMMC procedures, due to the large percentage of overall costs associated with personnel costs. In addition, efficiency improvements in consumables are likely to occur over time as prices and distribution costs decrease.

Estimating Client Out-of-Pocket Costs for Accessing Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in South Africa

Background The AIDS epidemic in Brazil remains concentrated in populations with high vulnerability to HIV infection, and the development of an HIV vaccine could make an important contribution to prevention. This study modeled the HIV epidemic and estimated the potential impact of an HIV vaccine on the number of new infections, deaths due to AIDS and the number of people receiving ARV treatment, under various scenarios. Methods and Findings The historical HIV prevalence was modeled using Spectrum and projections were made from 2010 to 2050 to study the impact of an HIV vaccine with 40% to 70% efficacy, and 80% coverage of adult population, specific groups such as MSM, IDU, commercial sex workers and their partners, and 15 year olds. The possibility of disinhibition after vaccination, neglecting medium- and high-risk groups, and a disease-modifying vaccine were also considered. The number of new infections and deaths were reduced by 73% and 30%, respectively, by 2050, when 80% of adult population aged 15–49 was vaccinated with a 40% efficacy vaccine. Vaccinating medium- and high-risk groups reduced new infections by 52% and deaths by 21%. A vaccine with 70% efficacy produced a great decline in new infections and deaths. Neglecting medium- and high-risk population groups as well as disinhibition of vaccinated population reduced the impact or even increased the number of new infections. Disease-modifying vaccine also contributed to reducing AIDS deaths, the need for ART and new HIV infections. Conclusions Even in a country with a concentrated epidemic and high levels of ARV coverage, such as Brazil, moderate efficacy vaccines as part of a comprehensive package of treatment and prevention could have a major impact on preventing new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, as well as reducing the number of people on ARV. Targeted vaccination strategies may be highly effective and cost-beneficial.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: A Qualitative Study Exploring the Challenges of Costing Demand Creation in Eastern and Southern Africa

Given compelling evidence associating voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) with men’s reduced HIV acquisition through heterosexual intercourse, South Africa in 2010 began scaling up VMMC. To project the resources needed to complete 4.3 million circumcisions between 2010 and 2016, we (1) estimated the unit cost to provide VMMC; (2) assessed cost drivers and cost variances across eight provinces and VMMC service delivery modes; and (3) evaluated the costs associated with mobilize and motivate men and boys to access VMMC services. Cost data were systematically collected and analyzed using a provider’s perspective from 33 Government and PEPFAR-supported (U.S. Presidents Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) urban, rural, and peri-urban VMMC facilities. The cost per circumcision performed in 2014 was US

Costs and Impacts of Scaling up Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in Tanzania

132 (R1,431): higher in public hospitals (US