Steven G. Cumming

FOREST TYPE AND WILDFIRE IN THE ALBERTA BOREAL MIXEDWOOD: WHAT DO FIRES BURN?

Two determinants of fire behavior are fire weather and spatial variation in fuels. Their relative importance in boreal forests has been unclear. I evaluated the effect of fuels on a ∼74 000-km2 landscape in the boreal mixedwood region of western Canada. My data were the compositions, or the proportional areas of different forest types, of 48 mapped lightning fires and of their immediate surroundings. I measured areal compositions from forest inventory maps, using a five-way classification representing deciduous forest, three types of coniferous forest, and wetlands. The fires burned between 1980 and 1993. Fire sizes ranged from 70 ha to 70 000 ha. By multivariate linear regression, fire surroundings explain 57% of the variation in forest types within mapped fires. Fire compositions are not representative of the study area as a whole, or of a fires surroundings, and are unrelated to fire size and location within the study area. Using the model, I predicted the areas of the five types burned within all oth...

BIOTIC AND ABIOTIC REGULATION OF LIGHTNING FIRE INITIATION IN THE MIXEDWOOD BOREAL FOREST

Lightning fire is the dominant natural disturbance of the western mixedwood boreal forest of North America. We quantified the independent effects of weather and forest composition on lightning fire initiation (a detected and recorded fire start) patterns in Alberta, Canada, to demonstrate how these biotic and abiotic components contribute to ecosystem dynamics in the mixedwood boreal forest. We used logistic regression to describe variation in annual initiation occurrence among 10,000-ha landscape units (voxels) covering a 9 million-ha study region over 11 years. At a voxel scale, forest composition explained more variation in annual initiation than did weather indices. Initiations occurred more frequently in landscapes with more conifer fuels (Picea spp.), and less in aspen-dominated (Populus spp.) ones. Initiations were less frequent in landscapes that had recently burned. Variation in initiation was also influenced by joint weather-lightning indices, but to a lesser degree. For each voxel, these indices quantified the number of days in the fire season when moisture levels were low and lightning was detected. Regional indices of fire weather severity explained substantial interannual variation of initiation, and the effect of forest composition was stronger in years with more severe fire weather. Our study is a conclusive demonstration of biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest. The independent effects of forest composition emphasize that vegetation feedbacks strongly regulate disturbance dynamics in the region.

Phenology-mediated effects of climatic change on some simulated British Columbia forests

We added certain aspects of species-specific phenology, and of local frost regimes to a standard invididual-based patch model of forest stand dynamics, which we used to explore the possible consequences of four climate-change scenarios in eight distinct forest regions in British Columbia, Canada. According to model projections, lowland temperate coastal forests will be severely stressed because forest tree species will no longer have their winter-chilling requirements met. High-elevation coastal forests may either remain stable or decrease in productivity, while interior subalpine forests may eventually resemble those now found in the coastal mountains. Southern interior forests are likely to persist relatively unchanged, while boreal and sub-boreal forests of the northern interior may become dominated by Douglas-fir and western larch, rather than by spruce and pine as at present. The rate of change in forest composition may be very high in some cases. Changes under the four climate-change scenarios generally vary in magnitude but not in direction. This exercise illustrates that different forest types might respond to a changing climate for different reasons, and at different rates.

Potential conflicts between timber supply and habitat protection in the boreal mixedwood of Alberta, Canada: a simulation study

Abstract The boreal mixedwood forests of northern Alberta, Canada, are now being brought under management for pulpwood production. A simulation modelling exercise was undertaken to evaluate the sustainability of planned logging operations, and to explore their potential effects on wildlife habitat. Model inputs include the species composition and age structure of the forest, annual coniferous and deciduous volume requirements, and descriptions of natural stand mortality and regeneration, operational constraints, and silvicultural policies. Simple habitat suitability submodels simulate the effect of changes in forest composition on wildlife species. The model was used to explore the implications of a variety of management policies over a 73 000 km 2 forest estate in the mixedwood region. Simulations of current harvesting plans indicate that projected levels of harvesting may be sustainable, but many wildlife species will lose substantial amounts of preferred habitat. Harvesting can probably not be sustained without converting most of the regions characteristic mixed-species stands to production of single species. Alternative plans which maintain unharvested reserve areas can protect habitat (areas of mixed stands in particular) for some wildlife species, but may entail significant increases in operating costs or reductions in harvest levels. Furthermore, the reserve strategies we considered are able to maintain only between 12% and 41% of high-quality habitat for species dependent upon older stands of commercially valuable timber. Because species have different habitat requirements, increased protection for some species may exacerbate habitat losses for others.

A remote sensing approach to biodiversity assessment and regionalization of the Canadian boreal forest

Successful conservation planning for the Canadian boreal forest requires biodiversity data that are both accessible and reliable. Spatially exhaustive data is required to inform on conditions, trends and context, with context enabling consideration of conservation opportunities and related trade-offs. However, conventional methods for measuring biodiversity, while useful, are spatially constrained, making it difficult to apply over wide geographic regions. Increasingly, remotely sensed imagery and methods are seen as a viable approach for acquiring explicit, repeatable and multi-scale biodiversity data over large areas. To identify relevant remotely derived environmental indicators specific to biodiversity within the Canadian boreal forest, we assessed indicators of the physical environment such as seasonal snow cover, topography and vegetation production. Specifically, we determined if the indicators provided distinct information and whether they were useful predictors of species richness (tree, mammal, bird and butterfly species). Using cluster analysis, we also assessed the applicability of these indicators for broad ecosystem classification of the Canadian boreal forest and the subsequent attribution of these stratified regions (i.e. clusters). Our results reveal that the indicators used in the cluster creation provided unique information and explained much of the variance in tree (92.6%), bird (84.07%), butterfly (61.4%) and mammal (22.6%) species richness. Spring snow cover explained the most variance in species richness. Results further show that the 15 clusters produced using cluster analysis were principally stratified along a latitudinal gradient and, while varied in size, captured a range of different environmental conditions across the Canadian boreal forest. The most important indicators for discriminating between the different cluster groups were seasonal greenness, a multipart measure of climate, topography and land use, and wetland cover, a measure of the percentage of wetland within a 1 km2 cell.

Road network density correlated with increased lightning fire incidence in the Canadian western boreal forest

This paper quantifies the influence of anthropogenic linear disturbances on fire ignition frequency in the boreal forests of western Canada. Specifically, we tested if linear features increase the frequency of lightning fires, and whether this relationship is affected by spatial resolution. We considered fires that ignited between 1995 and 2002 within a ~67 000 km2 region of boreal mixed-wood forest in north-eastern Alberta where linear features are highly abundant and spatially heterogeneous. We constructed Poisson, Negative Binomial and Zero-Inflated Poisson models at two spatial resolutions (~10 000 and ~2400 ha), including covariates for linear feature densities, forest composition, weather–lightning indices and geography. We found a positive association between lightning fire frequency and road density; this association was consistent at both spatial resolutions. We suggest this occurs owing to increased availability of flammable fine fuels near roads. The effect was attributable neither to increased detectability of fires proximal to roads by human observers, nor to increased lightning strikes due to metallic infrastructure alongside roads or the topographic characteristics of road location. Our results suggest that, in the face of projected road developments in the region, the potential exists for important changes to the regional fire regime. Further research should elucidate the precise mechanisms in order to develop methods for mitigation.

Using Binomial Distance-Sampling Models to Estimate the Effective Detection Radius of Point-Count Surveys Across Boreal Canada

ABSTRACT. We used binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius (EDR) of point-count surveys across boreal Canada. We evaluated binomial models based on 0–50 m and >50 m distance categories for goodness-of-fit and sensitivities to variation in survey effort and habitats sampled. We also compared binomial EDRs to Partners in Flights maximum detection distances (MDD) to determine differences in landbird population sizes derived from each. Binomial EDRs had a small positive bias (4%) averaged across 86 species and a large positive bias (30–82%) for two species when compared with EDRs estimated using multinomial distance sampling. Patterns in binomial EDRs were consistent with how bird songs attenuate in relation to their frequencies and transmission through different habitats. EDR varied 12% among habitats and increased 17% when birds were counted to an unlimited distance, compared with a limited distance of 100 m. The EDR did not vary with the duration of surveys, and densities did not differ when using unlimited-distance versus truncated data. Estimated densities, however, increased 19% from 3- to 5-min counts and 25% from 5- to 10-min counts, possibly from increases in the availability, movement, or double counting of birds with longer counts. Thus, investigators should be cautious when comparing distance-sampling results among studies if methods vary. Population sizes estimated using EDR averaged 5 times (0.8–15 times) those estimated with MDD. Survey data from which to estimate binomial EDRs are widely available across North America and could be used as an alternative to MDD when estimating landbird population sizes.

Measuring landscape configuration with normalized metrics

Natural and anthropogenic disturbances on natural landscapes reduce the abundance and alter the spatial arrangement of certain habitat types. Measuring and modeling such alterations, and their biological effects, remains challenging in part because many widely used configuration metrics are correlated with habitat amount. In this paper, we consider the sources of such correlation, and distinguish process or sample-based correlation from functional correlation that may be an artifact of the metrics themselves. Process correlation is not necessarily a serious problem for statistical inference, but functional correlation would be. We propose that functional correlation may be reduced by normalizing metrics by habitat abundance. We illustrate with normalized versions of total core area, mean nearest neighbor distance, and mean shape index, and show informally that the standard versions of these metrics should exhibit functional correlation. We evaluate the normalized metrics on samples of harvested and undisturbed forested landscapes, and on simulated landscapes generated with varying degrees of spatial autocorrelation. Normalization markedly reduced correlations with habitat abundance on natural landscapes, but not on simulated landscapes. The reasons for this appear to be a combination of differing variances in metric values within levels of habitat abundance, and of the precise form of the relationships between habitat abundance and the un-normalized metrics. In all cases, the normalization changes the ordering of landscapes by metric values across levels of habitat abundance. In consequence, normalized and standard metrics cannot both be accurate measures of configuration. We conclude that statistical modeling of ecological response data is needed to finally determine the merits of the normalizations.

Models to predict the distribution and abundance of breeding ducks in Canada

Detailed knowledge of waterfowl abundance and distribution across Canada is lacking, which limits our ability to effectively conserve and manage their populations. We used 15 years of data from an aerial transect survey to model the abundance of 17 species or species groups of ducks within southern and boreal Canada. We included 78 climatic, hydrological, and landscape variables in Boosted Regression Tree models, allowing flexible response curves and multiway interactions among variables. We assessed predictive performance of the models using four metrics and calculated uncertainty as the coefficient of variation of predictions across 20 replicate models. Maps of predicted relative abundance were generated from resulting models, and they largely match spatial patterns evident in the transect data. We observed two main distribution patterns: a concentrated prairie-parkland distribution and a more dispersed pan-Canadian distribution. These patterns were congruent with the relative importance of predictor variables and model evaluation statistics among the two groups of distributions. Most species had a hydrological variable as the most important predictor, although the specific hydrological variable differed somewhat among species. In some cases, important variables had clear ecological interpretations, but in some instances, e.g., topographic roughness, they may simply reflect chance correlations between species distributions and environmental variables identified by the model-building process. Given the performance of our models, we suggest that the resulting prediction maps can be used in future research and to guide conservation activities, particularly within the bounds of the survey area. Des modèles pour prédire la répartition et l’abondance des canards nichant au Canada RÉSUMÉ. Le manque de connaissances détaillées sur l’abondance et la répartition des espèces de sauvagine dans l’ensemble du Canada limite notre capacité à conserver et à gérer leurs populations de façon efficace. Au moyen de 15 années de données provenant d’inventaires aériens réalisés par transects, nous avons modélisé l’abondance de 17 espèces ou groupes d’espèces de canards dans les parties méridionale et boréale du Canada. Nous avons inclus 78 variables relatives au climat, à l’hydrologie et au paysage dans des modèles amplifiés d’arbres de régression, pour lesquels des courbes de réponse flexibles et les interactions multidimensionnelles entre les variables ont pu être examinées. Nous avons évalué la capacité de prédiction des modèles à l’aide de quatre paramètres et avons estimé l’incertitude en calculant le coefficient de variation des prédictions d’un jeu de 20 répétitions de modèles. Des cartes de l’abondance relative prédite ont été produites à partir des modèles et elles correspondent bien au profil spatial des données récoltées dans les transects. Nous avons observé deux tendances principales dans la répartition : l’une centrée sur les Prairies et les forêts-parcs, l’autre plus dispersée à la grandeur du Canada. Ces tendances coïncidaient avec l’importance relative des variables explicatives et les statistiques d’évaluation des modèles pour les deux groupes de répartition. Les variables qui expliquaient le mieux la répartition de la majorité des espèces avaient trait à l’hydrologie, bien que plus spécifiquement, elles différaient quelque peu d’une espèce à l’autre. Pour certaines variables importantes d’après les modèles, nous avons pu établir des liens clairs entre celles-ci et la répartition des espèces, tandis que pour d’autres, par exemple l’irrégularité du relief, nous pensons qu’elles pourraient simplement être le fruit de corrélations, attribuables au hasard, entre la répartition des espèces et les variables environnementales retenues lors du processus de consolidation des modèles. Considérant les performances de nos modèles, nous proposons que les cartes de répartition prédite soient utilisées dans le cadre de recherches futures et à des fins d’orientation des activités de conservation, surtout à l’intérieur des limites de notre aire d’étude.

Soil organic layer combustion in boreal black spruce and jack pine stands of the Northwest Territories, Canada

Increased fire frequency, extent and severity are expected to strongly affect the structure and function of boreal forest ecosystems. In this study, we examined 213 plots in boreal forests dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana) or jack pine (Pinus banksiana) of the Northwest Territories, Canada, after an unprecedentedly large area burned in 2014. Large fire size is associated with high fire intensity and severity, which would manifest as areas with deep burning of the soil organic layer (SOL). Our primary objectives were to estimate burn depth in these fires and then to characterise landscapes vulnerable to deep burning throughout this region. Here we quantify burn depth in black spruce stands using the position of adventitious roots within the soil column, and in jack pine stands using measurements of burned and unburned SOL depths. Using these estimates, we then evaluate how burn depth and the proportion of SOL combusted varies among forest type, ecozone, plot-level moisture and stand density. Our results suggest that most of the SOL was combusted in jack pine stands regardless of plot moisture class, but that black spruce forests experience complete combustion of the SOL only in dry and moderately well-drained landscape positions. The models and calibrations we present in this study should allow future research to more accurately estimate burn depth in Canadian boreal forests.