Steven Garber

Infant Mortality and Early Postpartum Discharge

Objective To assess additional risk of newborn death owing to early discharge. Methods This was a historical cohort study using Washington State linked birth certificates, death certificates, and hospital discharge records that covered 47,879 live births in 1989 and 1990. Logistic regression was used to assess risk of death within the first year of life after early discharge (less than 30 hours after birth) compared with later discharge (30–78 hours after birth). Results Newborns discharged early were more likely to die within 28 days of birth (odds ratio [OR] 3.65; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.56, 8.54), between 29 days and 1 year (OR 1.61; 95% CI 1.10, 2.36), and any time within the first year (OR 1.84; 95% CI, 1.31, 2.60) of life than newborns sent home later. Newborns discharged early also were more likely to die of heart-related problems (OR 3.72; CI 1.25, 11.04) and infections (OR 4.72; CI 1.13, 19.67) within 1 year of birth than newborns discharged later. Conclusion Newborns discharged within 30 hours of birth are at increased risk of death within the first year of life.

Learning about a population of agents and the evolution of trust and cooperation

Abstract Various reputation models consider how cooperation might emerge between rational adversaries in non-cooperative games. We suggest and analyze an additional determinant: uncertainty and learning about the population from which agents are selected. The analysis shows how the degrees of trust by principals and cooperation by agents can depend on the past behavior of other agents. A dramatic implication is that trust and cooperation can permanently and inefficiently break down due to revised beliefs about the population of agents. We consider lessons the theory might provide concerning the relationship between the U.S. Department of Defense and its contractors. The model suggests two explanations of events during the mid-1980s, which many interpret as a very socially costly breakdown of trust and cooperation.

Direct Medical Costs Attributable to Acute Myocardial Infarction and Ischemic Stroke in Cohorts with Atherosclerotic Conditions

Background: The cost of acute ischemic events in persons with established atherosclerotic conditions is unknown. Methods: The direct medical costs attributable to secondary acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or ischemic stroke among persons with established atherosclerotic conditions were estimated from 1995–1998 data on 1,143 patients enrolled in US managed care plans. Results: The average 180-day costs attributable to secondary AMI or stroke were estimated as USD 19,056 in the AMI cohort having a private insurance (commercial; n = 344), USD 16,845 in the AMI cohort having government insurance (Medicare, age ≧65 years; n = 200), USD 10,267 for stroke commercial (n = 108), USD 16,280 for stroke Medicare (n = 113), USD 15,224 for peripheral arterial disease commercial (n = 170), and USD 15,182 for peripheral arterial disease Medicare (n = 208). Conclusion: These estimates can be used to study the cost-effectiveness of interventions proven to reduce these secondary events.

Effectiveness of Advertising in Different Media. The Case of U.S. Army Recruiting

The U.S. military spends roughly

Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980.

100 million annually to place advertisements to promote enlistments. Army data for 1981 to 1984 exhibit substantial cross-sectional and times series variation in advertising intensities, which enables estimation of advertising effects separately for four media (television, radio, magazines, and newspapers) using a functional form allowing media-specific, S-shaped response functions and relatively flexible, media-specific lag structures. We find that army advertising was very productive in producing enlistments; response functions for television, radio, and magazines are consistent with widespread advertising practice; lag patterns differ substantially over media; and the armys allocation of spending across media was nearly optimal.