Steven M. Matsuoka

Prevalence of Influenza A viruses in wild migratory birds in Alaska: Patterns of variation in detection at a crossroads of intercontinental flyways

BackgroundThe global spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus has stimulated interest in a better understanding of the mechanisms of H5N1 dispersal, including the potential role of migratory birds as carriers. Although wild birds have been found dead during H5N1 outbreaks, evidence suggests that others have survived natural infections, and recent studies have shown several species of ducks capable of surviving experimental inoculations of H5N1 and shedding virus. To investigate the possibility of migratory birds as a means of H5N1 dispersal into North America, we monitored for the virus in a surveillance program based on the risk that wild birds may carry the virus from Asia.ResultsOf 16,797 birds sampled in Alaska between May 2006 and March 2007, low pathogenic avian influenza viruses were detected in 1.7% by rRT-PCR but no highly pathogenic viruses were found. Our data suggest that prevalence varied among sampling locations, species (highest in waterfowl, lowest in passerines), ages (juveniles higher than adults), sexes (males higher than females), date (highest in autumn), and analytical technique (rRT-PCR prevalence = 1.7%; virus isolation prevalence = 1.5%).ConclusionThe prevalence of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses isolated from wild birds depends on biological, temporal, and geographical factors, as well as testing methods. Future studies should control for, or sample across, these sources of variation to allow direct comparison of prevalence rates.

Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise

For climate change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive data set of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique locations) and 4-km climate, land use, and topographic data. For projected changes in abundance, we calculated signal-to-noise ratios and examined variance components related to choice of global climate model (GCM) and two sources of species distribution model (SDM) uncertainty: sampling error and variable selection. We also evaluated spatial, temporal, and interspecific variation in these sources of uncertainty. The mean signal-to-noise ratio across species increased over time to 2.87 by the end of the 21st century, with the signal greater than the noise for 88% of species. Across species, climate change represented the largest component (0.44) of variance in projected abundance change. Among sources of uncertainty evaluated, choice of GCM (mean variance component = 0.17) was most important for 66% of species, sampling error (mean= 0.12) for 29% of species, and variable selection (mean =0.05) for 5% of species. Increasing the number of GCMs from four to 19 had minor effects on these results. The range of projected changes and uncertainty characteristics across species differed markedly, reinforcing the individuality of species responses to climate change and the challenges of one-size-fits-all approaches to climate change adaptation. We discuss the usefulness of different conservation approaches depending on the strength of the climate change signal relative to the noise, as well as the dominant source of prediction uncertainty.

Calibrating indices of avian density from non-standardized survey data: making the most of a messy situation

Summary n n nThe analysis of large heterogeneous data sets of avian point-count surveys compiled across studies is hindered by a lack of analytical approaches that can deal with detectability and variation in survey protocols. nWe reformulated removal models of avian singing rates and distance sampling models of the effective detection radius (EDR) to control for the effects of survey protocol and temporal and environmental covariates on detection probabilities. nWe estimated singing rates and EDR for 75 boreal forest songbird species and found that survey protocol, especially point-count radius, explained most of the variation in detectability. However, environmental and temporal covariates (date, time, vegetation) affected singing rates and EDR for 73% and 59% of species, respectively. nUnadjusted survey counts increased by an average of 201% from a 5-min, 50-m radius survey to a 10-min, 100-m radius survey (n = 75 species). This variability was decreased to 8·5% using detection probabilities estimated from a combination of removal and distance sampling models. nOur modelling approach reduced computation when fitting complex models to large data sets and can be used with a wide range of statistical techniques for inference and prediction of avian densities.

Epizootic of BEak DEformitiEs among WilD BirDs in alaska: an EmErging DisEasE in north amErica?

ABSTRACT. n The sudden appearance of a large cluster of animals with gross abnormalities may signal a significant change in an ecosystem. We describe an unusual concentration of beak deformities that appear to have arisen rapidly within Alaska and now extend southward along the Pacific Coast. In Alaska we have documented 2,160 Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) and 435 individuals of 29 other species of birds, primarily during the past decade, with grossly overgrown and often crossed beaks. The annual prevalence of beak abnormalities among adult Black-capped Chickadees in south-central Alaska varied from 3.6% to 9.7% and averaged 6.5 ± 0.5% between 1999 and 2008. Only 0.05 ± 0.05% of nestlings and 0.3 ± 0.2% of juveniles <6 months old had abnormal beaks, which suggests that this is either a latent developmental or an acquired condition. We documented 80 cases in which a Black-capped Chickadee captured with an apparently normal beak was subsequently recaptured with a beak abnormality and 8 cases in which a beak deformity was no longer detectable upon recapture. Necropsy and histopathology of a sample of affected individuals provided no conclusive evidence of the etiology of this condition. Deformities appear to affect primarily the keratin layer of the beak and may result from abnormally rapid growth of the rhamphotheca. Some affected birds also exhibited lesions in other keratinized tissues of the skin, legs, feet, claws, and feathers, which may represent a systemic disorder or secondary conditions. Additional studies are currently underway to determine diagnostic signs and the underlying cause of this avian keratin disorder.

Reviving common standards in point-count surveys for broad inference across studies

ABSTRACT We revisit the common standards recommended by Ralph et al. (1993, 1995a) for conducting point-count surveys to assess the relative abundance of landbirds breeding in North America. The standards originated from discussions among ornithologists in 1991 and were developed so that point-count survey data could be broadly compared and jointly analyzed by national data centers with the goals of monitoring populations and managing habitat. Twenty years later, we revisit these standards because (1) they have not been universally followed and (2) new methods allow estimation of absolute abundance from point counts, but these methods generally require data beyond the original standards to account for imperfect detection. Lack of standardization and the complications it introduces for analysis become apparent from aggregated data. For example, only 3% of 196,000 point counts conducted during the period 1992–2011 across Alaska and Canada followed the standards recommended for the count period and count radius. Ten-minute, unlimited-count-radius surveys increased the number of birds detected by >300% over 3-minute, 50-m-radius surveys. This effect size, which could be eliminated by standardized sampling, was ≥10 times the published effect sizes of observers, time of day, and date of the surveys. We suggest that the recommendations by Ralph et al. (1995a) continue to form the common standards when conducting point counts. This protocol is inexpensive and easy to follow but still allows the surveys to be adjusted for detection probabilities. Investigators might optionally collect additional information so that they can analyze their data with more flexible forms of removal and time-of-detection models, distance sampling, multiple-observer methods, repeated counts, or combinations of these methods. Maintaining the common standards as a base protocol, even as these study-specific modifications are added, will maximize the value of point-count data, allowing compilation and analysis by regional and national data centers.

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF NESTING AND FORAGING SITES IN SELECTION OF BREEDING TERRITORIES BY TOWNSEND'S WARBLERS

We investigated habitat selection by the Townsends Warbler (Dendroica town- sendi), a Neotropical-Nearctic migrant that breeds primarily in mature coniferous forests. From 1993 to 1994, we compared the features of habitat selected for nest sites and foraging sites with those selected for territories in mature, mixed coniferous-deciduous forests in south-central Alaska. We also tested the prediction that large conifers are selected for nesting and foraging sites. Females placed nests in relatively large white spruce (Picea glauca) and consistently chose nest trees that were within areas of higher densities of large white spruce than were generally available. Nesting areas also had a higher density of small white spruce than was generally available, which may have been important in concealing nests from pred- ators. Vegetation features selected for foraging differed from those selected for nesting and varied seasonally. Foraging was concentrated in medium-sized white spruce during the pre- hatching stage and became more generalized across coniferous and deciduous vegetation during the posthatching stage. Adults foraged in large white spruce in direct proportion to their availability on the study areas. Territories, which encompassed both nesting and for- aging areas, were heterogeneous in vegetation structure and floristics. Areas selected for territories clearly reflected availability of the large white spruce selected for nest sites but did not reflect selection of medium white spruce for foraging. Characteristics of habitats varied with specific resource needs, but the distribution of Townsends Warblers was most strongly related to specific habitat requirements for nest sites. Received 29 July 1996, accepted 5 May 1997.

Rusty Blackbird: Mysteries of a Species in Decline

Abstract. The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) breeds across the boreal forest zone of North America and winters throughout the eastern United States. Over the past four decades, the North American Breeding Bird Survey and the Christmas Bird Count have shown high rates of population decline ranging from approximately 5 to 12% per year. Regional surveys suggest declines and range retractions in the southern boreal zone. Analyses of historical accounts suggest that the Rusty Blackbirds abundance has been dropping steadily for over a century. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the decline. The species relies on wooded wetlands throughout the year, so loss and degradation of these habitats—particularly in the winter range—is a prime suspect. Blackbird-control programs may have contributed. In recent decades, habitat disturbance, global warming, and environmental contamination in the boreal zone may have taken their toll on breeding populations. In 2005, the International Rusty Blackbird Working Group was formed to develop research efforts toward understanding the mysterious decline. This special section presents the groups research findings—the first on the species use of breeding and winter habitat, reproductive success, parasite prevalence, patterns of molt, and migratory connectivity. Data on the levels of methylmercury in tissues and the role of timber management on reproductive success are intriguing. We outline research needed for assessment of the roles of various factors in causing the decline of the Rusty Blackbird.

Nesting ecology of Townsend's warblers in relation to habitat characteristics in a mature boreal forest

We investigated the nesting ecology of Townsends Warblers (Dendroica townsendi) from 1993-1995 in an unfragmented boreal forest along the lower slopes of the Chugach Mountains in southcentral Alaska. We examined habitat characteristics of nest sites in relation to factors influencing reproductive success. Almost all territory-holding males (98%, n = 40) were successful in acquiring mates. Nest success was 54% (n = 24 nests), with nest survivorship greater during incubation (87%) than during the nestling period (62%). Most nesting failure (80%) was attributable to predation, which occurred primarily during the nestling period. Fifty-five percent of nests containing nestlings were infested with the larvae of bird blow-flies (Protocalliphora braueri and P. spenceri), obligatory blood-feeding parasites. The combined effects of Protocalliphora infestation and inclement weather apparently resulted in nestling mortality in 4 of the 24 nests. Nests that escaped predation were placed in white spruce with larger diameter than those lost to predation; nests that escaped blow-fly parasitism were located higher in nest trees and in areas with lower densities of woody shrubs than those that were infested. The availability of potential nest sites with these key features may be important in determining reproductive success in Townsends Warblers.

Using Binomial Distance-Sampling Models to Estimate the Effective Detection Radius of Point-Count Surveys Across Boreal Canada

ABSTRACT. n We used binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius (EDR) of point-count surveys across boreal Canada. We evaluated binomial models based on 0–50 m and >50 m distance categories for goodness-of-fit and sensitivities to variation in survey effort and habitats sampled. We also compared binomial EDRs to Partners in Flights maximum detection distances (MDD) to determine differences in landbird population sizes derived from each. Binomial EDRs had a small positive bias (4%) averaged across 86 species and a large positive bias (30–82%) for two species when compared with EDRs estimated using multinomial distance sampling. Patterns in binomial EDRs were consistent with how bird songs attenuate in relation to their frequencies and transmission through different habitats. EDR varied 12% among habitats and increased 17% when birds were counted to an unlimited distance, compared with a limited distance of 100 m. The EDR did not vary with the duration of surveys, and densities did not differ when using unlimited-distance versus truncated data. Estimated densities, however, increased 19% from 3- to 5-min counts and 25% from 5- to 10-min counts, possibly from increases in the availability, movement, or double counting of birds with longer counts. Thus, investigators should be cautious when comparing distance-sampling results among studies if methods vary. Population sizes estimated using EDR averaged 5 times (0.8–15 times) those estimated with MDD. Survey data from which to estimate binomial EDRs are widely available across North America and could be used as an alternative to MDD when estimating landbird population sizes.

Prevalence of hematozoa infections among breeding and wintering Rusty Blackbirds.

Abstract. The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) has declined precipitously over the past several decades, and stressors on both the breeding and wintering grounds are suspected causes. Over 3 years, we collected blood samples from breeding birds in Alaska and Maine and from wintering birds in Mississippi and Arkansas to determine the prevalence of hematozoan infections at different times of the year. The prevalence of hematozoa (percent of birds infected) in Alaska was 44% of 43 birds, lower than previously reported from Newfoundland and Ontario (83% of 23 birds). Blood parasites were found among 67% of 12 Rusty Blackbirds sampled in Maine, not different from the prevalence in Newfoundland and Ontario. Leucocytozoon was the most common parasite; few breeding birds were infected with Plasmodium or Trypanosoma sp. During the winter in Mississippi and Arkansas, the overall prevalence of hematozoa was 49% over three years. In winter as in summer, Leucocytozoon was the most commonly encountered parasite (n = 62 birds), followed by Haemoproteus (n = 5), microfilaria (n = 2), Trypanosoma (n = 2), and Plasmodium (n = 1). The prevalence of hematozoa among wintering Rusty Blackbirds was much higher than expected because winter is generally a time when there are few transmissions and in most birds blood parasites are absent from the peripheral circulation. This high prevalence might indicate a nonseasonal relapse of hematozoan infections among wintering birds; possibly due to high levels of stress, which are known to lower the immune response and trigger nonseasonal relapses.