Steven Plotkin

Energy futures for the US transport sector

Abstract This paper explores how advanced transportation technologies and alternative fuels, together with policies aimed at reducing greenhouse emissions and energy use, can help address the energy challenges facing the US transportation system over the coming decades. Three scenarios of future transportation energy use are constructed to represent alternative views of the urgency with which the federal government and the American people will view these challenges, and the policy interventions they will seek. The analysis concludes, first, that US transportation energy use and greenhouse emissions will increase virtually unchecked without policy intervention or unforeseen large, long-lasting fuel price increases, and second, that policies that stimulate technology development and deployment can substantially slow this growth—though not without a considerable time lag due to the slow turnover of the vehicle fleet and limits on the rate of technology development and deployment.

Prospects for improving the fuel economy of light-duty vehicles

Abstract US efforts to reduce light-duty vehicle fuel use have focused primarily on policies aimed directly at vehicle fuel economy not use, eg fuel economy standards and research on efficiency technology. Although economists have traditionally favored fuel taxes as a more efficient policy tool, the US political system seems allergic to higher taxes. This paper explores the potential effectiveness of higher gasoline taxes vs. more stringent fuel economy standards, focusing particularly on the fuel price sensitivity of gasoline demand and the technical prospects for improved fuel economy. We conclude that the evidence supports a long-run price elasticity of about −0.4, ie gasoline demand is relatively insensitive to the fuel price, despite early econometric analyses projecting high fuel price elasticities of demand. We also conclude that there are substantial technical prospects for improving fuel economy, although the current marketplace has little interest in such prospects.

Oil Independence: Achievable National Goal or Empty Slogan?

Oil independence has been a goal of U.S. energy policy for the past 30 years, yet the term has never been rigorously defined. A rigorous, measurable definition is proposed: to reduce the costs of oil dependence to less than 1% of gross domestic product in the next 20 to 25 years, with 95% probability. A simulation model incorporating the possibility of oil supply disruptions and other sources of uncertainty is used to test whether two alternative energy policy strategies—business as usual (BAU) and an interpretation of the strategy proposed by the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP)—can achieve oil independence for the United States. BAU does not produce oil independence. The augmented NCEP strategy comes close to achieving oil independence for the U.S. economy within the next 20 to 25 years, but more effort is needed to achieve full independence. The success of the strategy appears to be robust regardless of how the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries responds to it. Expected annual savings are estimated to exceed

Electricity End Uses, Energy Efficiency, and Distributed Energy Resources Baseline

250 billion per year by 2030.

Potential Reductions in Emissions and Petroleum Use in Transportation: Perspectives from the Transportation Energy Futures Project

Author(s): Schwartz, Lisa; Wei, Max; Morrow, William; Deason, Jeff; Schiller, Steven R.; Leventis, Greg; Smith, Sarah; Leow, Woei Ling; Levin, Todd; Plotkin, Steven; Zhou, Yan

Energy efficiency technologies for road vehicles

The use of energy-efficient technologies and renewable energy sources in transportation could reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions, but these approaches may face challenges in consumer adoption, infrastructure requirements, and resource constraints. The Transportation Energy Futures project of the U.S. Department of Energy reviewed opportunities for significant reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. On the basis of that review, a diverse set of strategies is explored: reduced energy intensity of transportation modes, lower use intensity of motorized transport, and reduced carbon or petroleum intensity through the use of electricity and hydrogen from renewable energy as well as the use of biofuels. Energy efficiency and demand-side approaches could stop the growth in total transportation energy. In the light-duty vehicle sector, growth in energy use already is projected to flatten; the deployment of technologies for energy efficiency could limit growth in the non-light-duty sector. Travel reduction and built environment changes could moderate personal transportation demand. Freight mass reductions and mode switching could slow or stabilize freight demand. Vehicles using electricity or hydrogen could enable access to renewable energy resources other than biomass. Challenges in fueling infrastructure expansion and market uptake of advanced vehicles are considered. Competition for biomass also is explored, considering markets for electricity, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and bunker fuel. The potential for the implementation of these strategies to displace U.S. petroleum use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector is discussed along with the barriers to realizing this potential in the market.