Steven R. Hare

A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production

Evidence gleaned from the instrumental record of climate data identifies a robust, recurring pattern of ocean–atmosphere climate variability centered over the midlatitude North Pacific basin. Over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at interannual-to-interdecadal timescales. There is evidence of reversals in the prevailing polarity of the oscillation occurring around 1925, 1947, and 1977; the last two reversals correspond to dramatic shifts in salmon production regimes in the North Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern also affects coastal sea and continental surface air temperatures, as well as streamflow in major west coast river systems, from Alaska to California.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability, and by others as a blend of two sometimes independent modes having distinct spatial and temporal characteristics of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. A growing body of evidence highlights a strong tendency for PDO impacts in the Southern Hemisphere, with important surface climate anomalies over the mid-latitude South Pacific Ocean, Australia and South America. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: “cool” PDO regimes prevailed from 1890–1924 and again from 1947–1976, while “warm” PDO regimes dominated from 1925–1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990s. Interdecadal changes in Pacific climate have widespread impacts on natural systems, including water resources in the Americas and many marine fisheries in the North Pacific. Tree-ring and Pacific coral based climate reconstructions suggest that PDO variations—at a range of varying time scales—can be traced back to at least 1600, although there are important differences between different proxy reconstructions. While 20th Century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities—one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years—the mechanisms causing PDO variability remain unclear. To date, there is little in the way of observational evidence to support a mid-latitude coupled air-sea interaction for PDO, though there are several well-understood mechanisms that promote multi-year persistence in North Pacific upper ocean temperature anomalies.

Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

Abstract It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions. A notable feature of the 1989 regime shift is the relative clarity that is found in biological records, which contrasts with the relative lack of clear changes expressed by indices of Pacific climate. Thus, the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific and Bering Sea appear to filter climate variability strongly, and respond nonlinearly to environmental forcing. We conclude that monitoring North Pacific and Bering Sea ecosystems may allow for an earlier identification of regime shifts than is possible from monitoring climate data alone.

Inverse Production Regimes: Alaska and West Coast Pacific Salmon

Abstract A principal component analysis reveals that Pacific salmon catches in Alaska have varied inversely with catches from the U.S. West Coast during the past 70 years. If variations in catch reflect variations in salmon production, then results of our analysis suggest that the spatial and temporal characteristics of this “inverse” catch/production pattern are related to climate forcing associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a recurring pattern of pan-Pacific atmosphere-ocean variability. Temporally, both the physical and biological variability are best characterized as alternating 20-to 30-year-long regimes punctuated by abrupt reversals. From 1977 to the early 1990s, ocean conditions have generally favored Alaska stocks and disfavored West Coast stocks. Unfavorable ocean conditions are likely confounding recent management efforts focused on increasing West Coast Pacific salmon production. Recovery of at-risk (threatened and endangered) stocks may await the next reversal of the Pacific Decad...

Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production

Abstract A review of oceanographic and climate data from the North Pacific and Bering Sea has revealed climate events that occur on two principal time scales: a) 2–7 years (i.e. El Nino Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and b) inter-decadal (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO). The timing of ENSO events and of related oceanic changes at higher latitudes were examined. The frequency of ENSO was high in the 1980s. Evidence of ENSO forcing on ocean conditions in the North Pacific (Nino North conditions) showed ENSO events were more frequently observed along the West Coast than in the western Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Time series of catches for 30 region/species groups of salmon, and recruitment data for 29 groundfish and 5 non-salmonid pelagic species, were examined for evidence of a statistical relationship with any of the time scales associated with Nino North conditions or the PDO. Some flatfish stocks exhibited high autocorrelation in recruitment coupled with a significant step in recruitment in 1977 suggesting a relationship between PDO forcing and recruitment success. Five of the dominant gadid stocks (EBS and GOA Pacific cod, Pacific hake and EBS and GOA walleye pollock) exhibited low autocorrelation in recruitment. Of these, Pacific hake, GOA walleye pollock and GOA Pacific cod exhibited significantly higher incidence of strong year classes in years associated with Nino North conditions. These findings suggest that the PDO and ENSO may play an important role in governing year-class strength of several Northeast Pacific marine fish stocks.

Effects of Climate and Stock Size on Recruitment and Growth of Pacific Halibut

Abstract This paper compares long-term changes in the recruitment and growth of Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis with long-term changes in climate and stock size. It appears that environmental variability—both interdecadal and interannual—is responsible for most of the observed variation in Pacific halibut recruitment. The large changes in growth rates that occurred during the 20th century appear to have been density-dependent responses to changes in stock size, with virtually no environmental influence.

Sea surface temperature variability in coastal areas of the northeastern Pacific related to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

We examined monthly time-series (1950 to 1999) of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 47 quadrants (2° × 2°) along the coast of North America and their relation to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We used the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the PDO Index (PDOI) and assumed a linear interaction of the mechanisms behind their interannual variations. Then, we examined SST anomalies as functions of MEI and PDOI using multiple linear regression (MLR). On average, ENSO influence decreases poleward but is still dominant at 31°N. Northward, the PDO signal dominates. MLR was also applied to selected sea level height (SLH) series. ENSO effects on SLH were clear up to 48°N, while PDO showed a weak effect only in the Gulf of Alaska. This suggests that, poleward of Southern California, ENSO effects may be largely restricted to the inshore coastal environment.

Accounting for Bycatch in Management of the Pacific Halibut Fishery

Abstract Since the 1960s, fisheries for groundfish other than Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis have caused an average of about 9,000 metric tons (mt, round weight) of halibut bycatch mortality every year, whereas annual directed catches of Pacific halibut have varied from 13,000 to almost 50,000 mt. About half of the bycatch consists of juvenile Pacific halibut caught in Alaska, some of which would otherwise migrate south and contribute to the fishery in British Columbia. These interceptions have long been a difficult issue for the United States and Canada. At recent levels of high juvenile abundance, the juvenile bycatch reduces coastwide recruitment by about 10%. The resulting yield loss, plus bycatch of adult fish, reduces yield to the directed fishery by about 11,000 mt per year. Migration modeling indicates that the yield loss due to bycatch occurs almost entirely in the area where the bycatch is taken. In particular, bycatch in Alaska reduces Pacific halibut yields in British Columbia by, at ...

Principal modes and related frequencies of sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific coast of North America

We examined monthly time-series (1950 to 1999) of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 47 quadrants (2° × 2°) along the Pacific coast of North America. Correlation, clustering and principal components analyses were applied to identify the spatial structure in coastal SST. The resulting modes and the individual series were investigated using spectral analysis to identify the most significant time-scales of variability, and the propagation of the main signals was explored by computing the wavenumber-frequency spectrum of each spatial mode. Results showed that coastal SST variability in the northeast Pacific conformed to three main geographical modes. A tropical mode extends from the equator to about the entrance to the Gulf of California. This mode appears related to two low frequency components of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation of about 3 and 5 years. The SST anomaly related to these signals propagates poleward, seemingly at low speeds (≈0.08 m s−1). A temperate (or transitional) mode, which includes the coastal areas along the California Current System, also shows the 5-year signal plus a decadal-scale component (periods between 10–17 years). Finally, a subarctic mode includes the coastal areas along the Gulf of Alaska and is dominated by the interdecadal variability that is characterized by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

A Conditional Constant Catch Policy for Managing the Pacific Halibut Fishery

Abstract Since 1985, the staff of the International Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC) has used a constant harvest rate policy—currently 20% of exploitable biomass—to estimate the yield currently available from Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis stock. This paper outlines a more stable alternative policy in which yield is held constant at some ceiling level so long as taking that yield would not result in a total exploitation rate exceeding a specified ceiling rate. During any periods of low abundance, the policy would revert to a constant harvest rate policy at the ceiling rate. The ceiling harvest rate would be chosen so as to assure that spawning biomass remained above a specified minimum. A policy of this kind could produce a yield similar to the present 20% constant harvest rate policy but with much less year-to-year variation attributable to changes in stock abundance, assessment methods, and estimated removals by other fisheries.