Steven R. Lopushinsky

Optimal Management of High-Risk T1G3 Bladder Cancer: A Decision Analysis

Background Controversy exists about the most appropriate treatment for high-risk superficial (stage T1; grade G3) bladder cancer. Immediate cystectomy offers the best chance for survival but may be associated with an impaired quality of life compared with conservative therapy. We estimated life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for both of these treatments for men and women of different ages and comorbidity levels. Methods and Findings We evaluated two treatment strategies for high-risk, T1G3 bladder cancer using a decision-analytic Markov model: (1) Immediate cystectomy with neobladder creation versus (2) conservative management with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and delayed cystectomy in individuals with resistant or progressive disease. Probabilities and utilities were derived from published literature where available, and otherwise from expert opinion. Extensive sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify variables most likely to influence the decision. Structural sensitivity analyses modifying the base case definition and the triggers for cystectomy in the conservative therapy arm were also explored. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess the joint uncertainty of all variables simultaneously and the uncertainty in the base case results. External validation of model outputs was performed by comparing model-predicted survival rates with independent published literature. The mean LE of a 60-y-old male was 14.3 y for immediate cystectomy and 13.6 y with conservative management. With the addition of utilities, the immediate cystectomy strategy yielded a mean QALE of 12.32 y and remained preferred over conservative therapy by 0.35 y. Worsening patient comorbidity diminished the benefit of early cystectomy but altered the LE-based preferred treatment only for patients over age 70 y and the QALE-based preferred treatment for patients over age 65 y. Sensitivity analyses revealed that patients over the age of 70 y or those strongly averse to loss of sexual function, gastrointestinal dysfunction, or life without a bladder have a higher QALE with conservative therapy. The results of structural or probabilistic sensitivity analyses did not change the preferred treatment option. Model-predicted overall and disease-specific survival rates were similar to those reported in published studies, suggesting external validity. Conclusions Our model is, to our knowledge, the first of its kind in bladder cancer, and demonstrated that younger patients with high-risk T1G3 bladder had a higher LE and QALE with immediate cystectomy. The decision to pursue immediate cystectomy versus conservative therapy should be based on discussions that consider patient age, comorbid status, and an individuals preference for particular postcystectomy health states. Patients over the age of 70 y or those who place high value on sexual function, gastrointestinal function, or bladder preservation may benefit from a more conservative initial therapeutic approach.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of immediate radical cystectomy versus intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guerin therapy for high-risk, high-grade (T1G3) bladder cancer.

Although both radical cystectomy and intravesical immunotherapy are initial treatment options for high‐risk, T1, grade 3 (T1G3) bladder cancer, controversy regarding the optimal strategy persists. Because bladder cancer is the most expensive malignancy to treat per patient, decisions regarding the optimal treatment strategy should consider costs.

The optimal timing of intestinal transplantation for children with intestinal failure: a Markov analysis.

Objective:Identify an optimal approach to the timing of intestinal transplantation for children dependent on total parenteral nutrition (PN). Summary Background Data:Children with short bowel syndrome are frequently dependent on PN for growth and development. Intestinal transplantation is often considered after PN-related complications occur, but optimal timing of transplantation is controversial. Methods:A Markov analytic model was used to determine life expectancy (LY) and quality-adjusted life years on a theoretical cohort of 4-year-old subjects for two treatment strategies: (1) standard care consisting of PN and referral to transplantation according to accepted guidelines and (2) early listing for isolated small intestine transplantation. Results:Early listing for intestinal transplantation was associated with 0.27 additional life years (13.16 vs. 12.89) and 0.76 additional quality-adjusted life years (10.51 vs. 9.75) as compared with current standard care. The unadjusted analysis was sensitive to the development of PN-associated liver disease, at a threshold of approximately 11% per year, and its related probability of dying at a threshold of 80% 2-year mortality. Early listing for transplantation was the dominant strategy until the probability of late bowel rejection reached 35% per year. Conclusions:Children with short bowel syndrome dependent on PN should be considered for intestinal transplantation earlier than what is current practice.

Accuracy of administrative health data for the diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal diseases

BackgroundThe use of administrative health data is increasingly common for the study of various medical and surgical diseases. The validity of diagnosis codes for the study of benign upper gastrointestinal disorders has not been well studied.MethodsThe authors abstracted the charts for 590 adult patients who underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy between January 1, 2000 and June 30, 2001 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Clinical diagnoses from medical records were compared with International Classification of Diseases Version 9 (ICD-9) codes in electronic hospital discharge abstracts. The primary analysis aimed to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) of a most responsible “esophagitis” diagnosis code for the prediction of esophagitis. Secondary analyses determined the performance characteristics of the diagnostic codes for esophageal ulcer, esophageal stricture, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), gastritis, gastric ulcer, and duodenal ulcer.ResultsThe authors linked 500 patient records to electronic discharge abstracts. When listed as the most responsible diagnosis for admission, the ICD-9 codes for esophagitis showed a sensitivity of 46.79%, a specificity of 98.83%, and a PPV of 94.81%. When listed as a secondary diagnosis, the ICD-9 codes showed a sensitivity of 70.51%, a specificity of 97.67%, and a PPV of 93.22%. The diagnostic properties of ICD-9 codes for GERD (most responsible, secondary) were as follows: sensitivity (56.10%, 78.66%), specificity (98.51%, 96.73%), and PPV (94.84%, 92.14%).ConclusionsThe ICD-9 diagnosis codes for benign upper gastrointestinal diseases are highly specific and associated with strong PPVs, but have poor sensitivity.

Pectus deformities: A review of open surgery in the modern era

Pectus deformities represent a spectrum of relatively common congenital chest malformations. The adoption of less invasive techniques has renewed interest in surgical repair by both patients and clinicians. The aim of this review is to identify current management, outcomes, and controversy in the treatment of pectus excavatum and pectus carinatum.

Regional Variation in Surgery for Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease in Ontario

The optimal treatment for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is unclear, and the degree of variation in the rate of antireflux surgery in different regions is unknown. Large variation has significant implications for health care spending and may represent uncertainty among health care providers. The objective of this study was to identify population-based utilization and measure area rate variations in the use of GERD surgery; 11 685 primary antireflux procedures in the provincial administrative health databases were studied. Small-area variation was quantified using 4 measures. The crude rate of antireflux procedures was 11.6/100 000 adults. Patients between the ages of 45 and 64 had the highest rates of surgery. More women than men underwent antireflux surgery (13.6 vs. 9.4 per 100 000). Between counties, adjusted surgical rates ranged from 5.0 to 28.7 per 100 000 persons. Significant regional variation exists for antireflux surgery across Ontario, suggesting that its appropriate role in the management of GERD remains ill-defined.

Gallstone disease in the elderly: diagnosis and management

The risk of developing gallstone disease and its complications increases with age. With an aging population, the prevalence of gallstone disease is likely to escalate. New diagnostic and therapeutic health technologies have significantly improved the care of patients with gallstones. The dissemination of laparoscopic surgical techniques, also known as minimally invasive surgery, has revolutionized patient care. Elderly patients, in particular, benefit from rapid detection and early definitive therapy of gallstone disease. The aim of this article is to review the diagnosis and management of patients with different clinical presentations of gallstone disease, with special emphasis on the role of age in the decision-making process.