Steven Ruggles

THE RISE OF DIVORCE AND SEPARATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 1880–1990

I use the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to assess the potential effects of local labor-market conditions on long-term trends and race differences in marital instability. The rise of female labor-force participation and the increase in nonfarm employment are closely associated with the growth of divorce and separation. Moreover, higher female labor-force participation among black women and lower economic opportunities for black men may account for race differences in marital instability before 1940, and for most of such differences in subsequent years. However, unmeasured intervening cultural factors are probably responsible for at least part of these effects.

The decline of intergenerational coresidence in the United States, 1850 to 2000

In the mid-nineteenth century, almost 70 percent of persons age 65 or older resided with their adult children; by the end of the twentieth century, fewer than 15 percent did so. Many scholars have argued that the simplification of the living arrangements of the aged resulted primarily from an increase in their resources, which enabled increasing numbers of elders to afford independent living. This article supports a different interpretation: the evidence suggests that the decline of coresidence between generations had less to do with the growing affluence of the aged than with the increasing opportunities of the younger generation. Using data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), I examine long-run trends in the characteristics of both the older and the younger generations to gain insight into changing motivations for coresidence. In particular, I investigate headship patterns, occupational status, income, and spatial coresidence patterns. I also reassess the potential impact of the Social Security program. I conclude that the decline of intergenerational coresidence resulted mainly from increasing opportunities for the young and declining parental control over their children.

The transformation of American family structure

This essay reexamines the revisionist argument about the history of the family in light of new evidence about long-run changes in American family structure. In particular I use the new Integrated Public Use Microdata Series a national database incorporating consistent individual-level data from the U.S. Census over the period 1850 to 1990. I also report findings from the only eighteenth-century American census of sufficient size and quality to permit a consistent analysis of family composition the 1776 census of Maryland. The evidence suggests that the revisionist interpretation needs revising. In fact a form of extended family structure was dominant in nineteenth-century America and quite probably in the eighteenth century as well. The American preference for extended family structure disappeared in the twentieth century and I...offer a brief analysis of some explanations for this change. (EXCERPT)

Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010

This article critically evaluates the available data on trends in divorce in the United States. We find that both vital statistics and retrospective survey data on divorce after 1990 underestimate recent marital instability. These flawed data have led some analysts to conclude that divorce has been stable or declining for the past three decades. Using new data from the American Community Survey and controlling for changes in the age composition of the married population, we conclude that there was actually a substantial increase in age-standardized divorce rates between 1990 and 2008. Divorce rates have doubled over the past two decades among persons over age 35. Among the youngest couples, however, divorce rates are stable or declining. If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the leveling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage.

Migration, Marriage, and Mortality: Correcting Sources of Bias in English Family Reconstitutions

The impact of excluding migration data from family reconstitutions has usually focused on a comparison of migrant and non-migrant characteristics rather than on the bias occurring in age at marriage or life expectancy. The topic of this discussion is the bias in marriage age and life expectancy in family reconstitution data under preindustrial English demographic conditions. The bias is illustrated with the MOMSIM microsimulation model where migration histories can be assigned at random according to assumptions about age-specific migration. The differences between the general population and the reconstructed subpopulation are attributed to migration effects. Migration is simulation models do not correct the bias. The model is explained and a simulation begun of 50000 married couples who survive to the age of 50 years. Alain Blums model is evaluated and new methods are proposed. The results of the microsimulation show that the mean age at marriage is raised by a little over half a year when mortality censoring is eliminated. When results are subject to both migration and mortality censoring the reconstituted estimates for women understate age at marriage by 2.6 years in the low migration model and understate age at marriage by 4.5 years in the high migration model. In order to achieve unbiased estimates 90% of the cases had to be eliminated in the high migration and high mortality model. For this reason and because English reconstitutions are usually based on 20-30% of marriages that are linked to baptismal records small reconstitutions may not be feasible. The results of Alain Blums minimum mortality procedure show that life expectancies are comparable to life expectancies in the general population. For medium and low migration males life expectancies at age 20 are higher in the general population compared to the expected high life expectancies in the minimum mortality population estimates. An alternative strategy which works well with small populations proposes a new minimum estimate of mortality and is not sensitive to differences in demographic behavior of non-migrants and eventual migrants.

Multigenerational families in nineteenth-century America

Revisionist historians maintain that the aged in nineteenth-century America and north-western Europe usually preferred to reside alone or with only their spouse. According to this interpretation, the aged ordinarily resided with their adult children only out of necessity, especially in cases of poverty or infirmity. This article challenges that position, arguing that in mid-nineteenth-century America coresidence of the aged with their children was almost universal, and that the poor and sick aged were the group most likely to live alone. The article suggests that the decline of the multigenerational family in the twentieth century is connected to the rise of wage labour and the diminishing importance of agricultural and occupational inheritance.

Linking Historical Censuses: a New Approach

This article describes a new initiative at the Minnesota Population Center (MPC) to create linked representative samples of individuals and family groups from the censuses of 1860, 1870, 1900 and 1910 to the 1880 census. This set of linked samples will provide new opportunities for researchers to carry out individuallevel analyses of social and geographic mobility and family transitions. This study differs from past efforts to link persons across census years in one key respect. The central goal of previous studies has been to maximize the proportion of the population linked. Our primary goals, however, are to minimize selection bias and maximize representativeness of the linked cases. To achieve these goals, we are prepared to sacrifice a significant number of demonstrably valid links. The project takes advantage of an extraordinary new data source, a complete transcription of the 1880 census of the United States. We will also capitalize on recent advances in record linkage technology.

Building the National Historical Geographic Information System

Abstract The National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS) is a new project to make a rich body of aggregate census data accessible within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework for historical population research. The authors are developing a database incorporating all available aggregate census information for the United States between 1790 and 2000, including all surviving machine-readable aggregate data and new data transcribed from printed and manuscript sources. They are also creating new census-tract maps back to 1910, state and county maps back to 1790, and additional maps when feasible. Availability of high-quality boundaries for key statistical areas will permit the reconciliation of changes in census geography. Census data, documentation, and boundary files will be freely disseminated through an integrated Web-based data access and mapping system.

Big Microdata for Population Research

This article describes an explosion in the availability of individual-level population data. By 2018, demographic researchers will have access to over 2 billion records of accessible microdata from over 100 countries, dating from 1703 to the present. Another 2 to 4 billion records will be available through restricted-access data enclaves. These new resources represent a new kind of data that will enable transformative research on demographic and economic change and the spatial organization of society.

The North Atlantic Population Project: Progress and Prospects

Abstract The North Atlantic Population Project (NAPP) is a massive database of historical census microdata from European and North American countries. The backbone of the project is the unique collection of completely digitized censuses providing information on the entire enumerated populations of each country. In addition, for some countries, the NAPP includes sample data from surrounding census years. In this article, the authors provide a brief history of the project, describe their progress to data and plans for the future, and discuss some potential implications of this unique data resource for social and economic research.