Stig H. Jørgensen

The use of multilevel models for the prediction of road accident outcomes.

An important problem in road traffic accident research is the resolution of the magnitude by which individual accident characteristics affect the risk of fatality for each person involved. This article introduces the potential of a recently developed form of regression models, known as multilevel models, for quantifying the various influences on casualty outcomes. The application of multilevel models is illustrated by the analysis of the predictors of outcome amongst over 16,000 fatally and seriously injured casualties involved in accidents between 1985 and 1996 in Norway. Risk of fatality was found to be associated with casualty age and sex, as well as the type of vehicles involved, the characteristics of the impact, the attributes of the road section on which it took place, the time of day, and whether alcohol was suspected. After accounting for these factors, the multilevel analysis showed that 16% of unexplained variation in casualty outcomes was between accidents, whilst approximately 1% was associated with the area of Norway in which each incident occurred. The benefits of using multilevel models to analyse accident data are discussed along with the limitations of traditional regression modelling approaches.

A cross‐cultural comparison of road traffic risk perceptions, attitudes towards traffic safety and driver behaviour

The present study investigated cross‐cultural differences in road traffic risk perception, risk sensitivity and risk willingness in Norway, Russia, India, Ghana, Tanzania and Uganda. Differences in driver attitudes and driver behaviour were also examined. An additional aim was to test whether the risk constructs and driver attitudes explained the variation in risky driver behaviour in these countries. To obtain these aims, a questionnaire survey was conducted among a randomly obtained representative sample of the Norwegian public (n = 247). Stratified samples were established in Russia (n = 245), India (n = 196), Ghana (n = 299), Tanzania (n = 559) and Uganda (n = 415). The respondents completed a questionnaire which consisted of validated self‐reported measures of the risk constructs, and driver attitudes and behaviour. Norwegians reported safer attitudes regarding drinking and driving, and speeding in road traffic. These respondents also reported more seat belt use and lower frequencies of drinking and driving than the remaining subsamples. Respondents from Sub‐Saharan Africa reported higher road traffic risk perceptions and risk sensitivity than respondents from Norway, Russia and India. Respondents from Tanzania reported the highest willingness to take risks both in traffic and in general. Participants from Sub‐Saharan Africa and India reported safer attitudes in regard to speaking out to an unsafe driver, rule violations and sanctions, attitudes towards pedestrians, and traffic rules and knowledge. Respondents from Sub‐Saharan Africa also reported more precautious behaviour and less speeding. The predictive model of driver behaviour explained a satisfactory amount of variance in Norway, Russia and India, but was poorly fitted in the African countries. The results are discussed in line with the general risk environments and the road traffic systems in high‐ and low‐income countries. Challenges related to measuring road traffic attitudes and behaviour in low‐income countries are also discussed.

Safety attitudes, behaviour, anxiety and perceived control among professional and non-professional drivers

The current study aimed to investigate differences in psychological safety factors such as attitudes and behaviour among professional and non-professional drivers. Differences in accident involvement and the number of speeding tickets were also investigated. An additional aim was to study factors associated with risky driver behaviour and speeding tickets in these groups. A questionnaire survey was distributed by mail to a randomly selected sample from the Norwegian population registry (N = 6203). The response rate was 30% and the final sample consisted of 1864 individuals. Adjusted for demographic characteristics and road traffic exposure the results showed that professional drivers (n = 113) reported significantly less seat belt use and watchful driving than non-professional drivers (n = 1594). Professional drivers reported significantly less fun riding and safer attitudes regarding addressing the unsafe driving of others. The professional drivers also reported significantly safer behaviour related to drink driving, but lower priorities of road traffic safety. Professional drivers perceived significantly more control and had been involved in more accidents than the non-professional drivers. The results suggest that professional drivers may constitute a risk group in road traffic. Further research could focus on barriers of seat belt use and mechanisms, which could promote safety priorities in this driver group. The knowledge gained by such studies could be utilised by company managers in order to promote safer behaviour among professional drivers.

Transport priorities, risk perception and worry associated with mode use and preferences among Norwegian commuters

There is currently scant research on the role of transport priorities, risk perception and worry for travel mode use and preferences. The present study aims to examine these factors in relation to mode use and preferences among Norwegian commuters. A web-based survey was conducted in a randomly obtained representative sample of daily commuters in the extended greater Oslo area (n=690). The results showed that those who prioritized efficiency and flexibility tended to commute by car, while those who prioritized safety and comfort used public (e.g. metro, tram, and train) or active (e.g. walking and cycling) transport. In a free choice scenario, the respondents who prioritized flexibility reported a preference for using a car, whereas those who prioritized safety and comfort preferred public and active transport for their commuter travels. Risk perception of high impact events, such as terrorism and major accidents, as well as risk perception related to personal impact risks (theft, violence etc.) were related to car use on commuter travels. Transport-related worry exerted weak influences on mode use and preferences. Increased speed on rail transport and more frequent departures may be effective in reducing car use on commuter travels. Risk communication should focus on highlighting the low risk of experiencing security and safety issues in the public transport sector, and this message should be complemented by efforts to reduce the probability of negative events affecting public transport.

Some perspectives on the geographies of poverty and health: A Ghanaian context

Poverty and health are often closely linked. However, types of settlement, sites and migration between areas may amplify or modify these relationships. The article aims at examining some poverty issues where health and geography seems to be relevant, with reference to Ghana. Some geographical structures of poverty may be related to poverty strands, such as the livelihoods approach and partly the participatory approach. A distinction between people poverty and place poverty may be relevant in a consideration of poverty outlines. An attempt is made to provide an overview and unravel the complex faces of poverty by groups and geography, and to indicate a differentiated empirical pattern of places and groups with various health conditions. The differences go beyond a ‘stereotypic’ urban–rural dichotomy and point to different adjustments in the studied areas. Possibly, womens situation seems to be more vulnerable in terms of their subordinated social position and roles in society. Some types of poverty reduction strategies that may cover various geographical scales are discussed, with a focus on the meso-level, with regional poverty reduction plans, towards more specific group and individual improvements taking place at micro-level.

New faces of poverty in Ghana

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the sub-regions of the world where poverty levels are extremely high. Three facets of poverty in Africa have emerged in recent times: both urban and rural poverty are increasing, levels of inequality amongst the rich and poor are widening, and there are new faces of poverty emerging within the continent. In order to understand some of the new dimensions of poverty in West Africa, we undertook a project in 2003 titled the New Faces of Poverty in Ghana, supported by the Norwegian Council for Higher Education’s Programme for Development Research and Education (NUFU). The programme was a collaborative effort of professional geographers from Ghana (Universities of Ghana and Cape Coast) and Norway (Norwegian University of Science and Technology), and had four main thematic areas: poverty and disease, with a focus on HIV/AIDS and Buruli ulcer; feminisation of poverty; poverty and the use of health services; decentralisation and poverty reduction strategies. This special issue of Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift Norwegian Journal of Geography presents some of the findings of this research collaboration. Earlier findings have been published in a previous special issue of this journal in 2005 (Vol. 59, Issue 1) (see also Aase & Agyei-Mensah 2005; Agyei-Mensah 2006; Awumbila 2006; Yankson 2007; Lund & Agyei-Mensah 2008; Owusu 2008). The title of the research programme was inspired by the report by Lipton & Maxwell (1992) and the Human Development Report 1999 (UNDP 1999), which stated that the majority of the income poor live in South Asia, most of them in rural areas. However, it was argued that the face of poverty was constantly changing, and in the years to come an income-poor person would be more likely to be an African than an Asian, due to economic stagnation and slow employment growth. The authors also argued that the income-poor person would most likely be a child, or female, or elderly, and further, they would be likely to be poor due to increased cuts in social welfare, greater disintegration of the family, higher unemployment particularly chronic unemployment and involuntary part-time work, the high costs of social and economic transition, and increased time burdens. Furthermore, the income-poor person would be less likely to be a small farmer in the countryside, and more likely to be an unskilled, low-wage worker living in the city, due to continuing globalisation and trade liberalisation, increased liberalisation of labour markets, rapid demographic change and migration to urban areas, growth of the low productivity informal sector, worsening access to productive resources, and inadequate development of urban housing and physical infrastructure. Finally, according to the prognoses in the reports, the income poor would be less likely to be a settled person, and more likely to be a refugee or internally displaced, as a consequence of increasing wars and conflicts and also deepening economic and environmental crises. By the start of the 21st century the truth of these prophecies had been realised. The data on income poverty present a contrast between considerable reductions in extreme poverty in eastern and southern Asia and stagnation or even increases in extreme poverty in other developing regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, almost half the population lives on USD 1 or less per day; in western Africa, the proportion was only 2% in 1990, but had risen to an estimated 8% in 1999 (World Bank 2003). Further, the United Nations (UN) statistics indicate that the rate of increase in the GDP (gross domestic product) in Africa at the start of the 21st century was almost four times lower than that in eastern Asia. Poverty in Africa also worsened, as low rates of economic growth were accompanied by high rates of population increase. Aggregate GDP in Africa increased by 29%, but on a per capita basis it was virtually unchanged and the number of people living in extreme poverty increased by 74 million. Today, more than 300 million people in sub-Saharan Africa live on less than USD 1 per day. Regarding the gender dimension, the UN Statistics Division (2004) emphasises that the measure of one dollar per day as the basis for determining poverty is in turn based on income or consumption data for households as a whole. Hence, a full understanding of the gender dimension of poverty is not yet possible using this type of data. In addition, households headed by women face many hindrances to equal income and employment opportunities. At the same time, women are usually the primary caregivers for relatives and children. According to the UN, these factors compound the vulnerability of all poor people, men and women. If the present rate of poverty reduction of the 1990s continues, the outlook for poverty reduction in Africa is bleak. However, poverty relates to other dimensions than economic growth alone. It relates to a wide set of factors of vulnerability, marginalisation, lack of access to knowledge and resources, and people’s lack of control over their own bodies and health. According to the UN Statistics Division (2004), income poverty will endure despite Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift Norwegian Journal of Geography Vol. 62, 135 138. Oslo. ISSN 0029-1951

As Temporal as Spatial : It Is Geographical–Exploring Spatio-temporality in Modelling the Risk of Climate Change and Natural Hazards

This thesis is highly relevant for at least two main reasons. First, problems of higher natural hazard risks resulting from climate change problems are already materializing. Second, a few years ag...