Stilianos Fountas

Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

We use a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of inflation and output growth to examine the causality relationship among nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance measured by the inflation and output growth rates. The application of the constant conditional correlation GARCH(1,1) model leads to a number of interesting conclusions. First, inflation does cause negative welfare effects, both directly and indirectly, i.e. via the inflation uncertainty channel. Secondly, in some countries, more inflation uncertainty provides an incentive to Central Banks to surprise the public by raising inflation unexpectedly. Thirdly, in contrast to the assumptions of some macroeconomic models, business cycle variability and the rate of economic growth are related. More variability in the business cycle leads to more output growth.

On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account imbalance for four ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1961-1999 period. To this end, we utilize the intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) model to explain the behavior of the current account in these countries. The analysis is based on various unit root and cointegration procedures including those allowing for a structural break to deal with the major shortcomings of previous studies. The empirical results indicate clearly that for all countries, except Malaysia, current account deficits were not on the long-run steady state in the pre-crisis (1961-1997) era. This leads us to conclude that the current accounts of these countries were unsustainable and did not move towards external account equilibrium. Moreover, the persistent current account deficits might serve as a leading indicator of financial crises. In contrast, we find strong comovement between inflows and outflows in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand in the period including the post-crisis years, while Malaysia was on an unsustainable path. This is because macroeconomic performance of most of the ASEAN countries has changed dramatically since the onset of the Asian crisis in mid-1997. The evidence suggests that action to prevent large appreciations should have been taken prior to the 1997 crisis.

The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the UK: 1885-1998

Using a long series of UK inflation data, I have provided strong evidence in favour of the hypothesis that inflationary periods are associated with high inflation uncertainty. This result supports the Friedman-Ball hypothesis and has important implications for the inflation-output relationship provided that more inflation uncertainty leads to lower output.

Emerging stock markets return seasonalities: the January effect and the tax-loss selling hypothesis

Seasonal effects are tested for in stock returns, the January effect anomaly and the tax-loss selling hypothesis using monthly stock returns in eighteen emerging stock markets for the period 1987–1995. Even though considerable evidence for seasonal effects applies in several countries, very little evidence is found in favour of the January effect and the tax-loss selling hypothesis. These results provide some support to the informational efficiency aspect of the market efficiency hypothesis.

Inflation and output growth uncertainty and their relationship with inflation and output growth

Using a bivariate GARCH model of inflation and output growth we find evidence that higher inflation and more inflation uncertainty lead to lower output growth in the Japanese economy. These results support the argument of a price stability objective for the monetary authority.

An empirical analysis of short-run and long-run Irish export functions : does exchange rate volatility matter?

We analyse the long-run and short-run relationship between merchandise export volume and its determinants, foreign income, relative prices and exchange rate volatility, using the techniques of cointegration and error correction. The model was estimated for Irish exports and sectoral exports SITC 0-4 and SITC 5-8 to the EU using quarterly data for the period 1978-1998. The sectoral classification corresponds to the exports of mainly indigenous Irish firms and multinationals, respectively. We find that the exchange rate volatility has no effect on the volume of trade in the short-run but a significant positive effect in the long run. This is true in the aggregate and for our sectoral classifications. We can tentatively conclude that the decline in intra-EU exchange rate volatility associated with the single currency will lead to a long-run fall in Irish exports to the EU.

Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries

TThe objective of this paper is to test for the sustainability of the current account deficits in the U.S. and Canada over the 1973--1994 period. Using various unit root and cointegration tests some of which allow for structural changes, we conclude that the real current account deficits-to-GDP ratios are not sustainable.

Has the European Monetary System Led to More Exports? Evidence from Four European Union Countries

We attempt to investigate whether the ERM period has coincided with an increase in intra-EU exports. We conclude that this has not been the case but it is likely that the elimination of nominal exchange rate variability arising from a single currency will boost intra-EU trade.

Tests for interest rate convergence and structural breaks in the EMS

We use a new test for cointegration that allows for structural breaks in the cointegrating relationship to test for bilateral interest rate convergence in the European Monetary System. Contrary to previous studies that employed standard cointegration tests, we find strong evidence for convergence between German nominal interest rates and interest rates in four other EMS countries in the 1979-1995 period.

Real Interest Rate Parity under Regime Shifts and Implications for Monetary Policy

We use recently developed cointegration tests that determine endogenously the regime shift to test bilateral real interest rate convergence (real interest rate parity) in the G7 against the US in the 1974-1995 period. In contrast with previous studies that employed classical regression analysis and standard cointegration tests, our innovative approach provides strong evidence in favour of bilateral real interest rate convergence between the US and several countries in our sample, in particular for short-term real interest rates. Our results highlight the fact that for a number of countries in our sample (Canada and UK) monetary policy can act as a stabilization policy tool through its effect on domestic long-term real interest rates while for others (France and Germany) long-term real interest rate changes are influenced by the US monetary policy stance. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester