Stuart Basten

Population—The long view

This special issue of Population Studies is the outcome of invitations to a number of scholars in demographic and related sciences to contribute to an exploration of large-scale, long-term, interdisciplinary population problems. In planning the issue, the editors hoped to help put the ‘population’ back into ‘population studies’. They were concerned that the population dimension had become hidden in recent demographic research, which has mostly become focused on micro-level analyses that often do not adequately engage with the relevance of the ‘micro’ for the ‘macro’ level of population behaviour. As Francesco Billari points out in the first paper, we are by no means the first to raise this issue. However, he emphasizes that macro and micro approaches must be seen as complementary for demographic enlightenment, not as hostile rivals. Ultimate questions about how human populations behave in the long term and on the large scale, and what future structures may emerge, will depend upon the actions and interactions of billions of individuals. We need to know more about how the behaviour of actors generates and alters demographic structures at the same time as population structures and interactions affect the behaviour of those actors. This macro/micro divergence is marked in the public realm of politics and the media, as opposed to academia. Public and political concern about population tends to be focused on population change on the large scale: the familiar battleground of population versus resources; rapid growth in poorer countries, population ageing in richer ones; population decline in some countries and in prospect for many others; and all of these interacting under the cloud of climate change. When new data are released about populations, these tend to generate considerable attention and debate. Governments might treat demographic indicators as explicit policy targets, or as reasons to act. Yet in recent years the most striking scientific progress in demography, and most contributions to journals and scientific conferences, have been concerned with the micro scale of demographic processes. Substantial improvements in the availability of individual-level data, especially from longitudinal studies, record linkage, and uniform, multinational surveys have created the potential for much more refined statistical analysis, with rigorous approaches to causal inference and scope for international comparability. That potential has been realized through important innovations and concepts in analytical techniques, such as advanced regression analysis, the recognition of latent variables, event-history analysis, and multi-level modelling. Economics, psychology, sociology, and, more rarely, evolutionary biology have provided theoretical backgrounds and generated hypotheses for micro-level demographic analyses. Maire Ni Bhrolchain’s (1993) iconoclastic paper ‘Period paramount’ disputed the moral and technical superiority of cohort analysis. To some it has seemed that we are now confronted instead with ‘micro paramount’. The life-course approach, based on

Fertility in China: An uncertain future

As one of the world’s two population ‘billionaires’, the future of China’s population is truly of global significance. With its very low fertility and a rapidly ageing population, it might appear that the country’s famous (or notorious) family planning restrictions are somewhat anachronistic. Here, we explore the process of reform seen over the past three decades and, most recently, in late 2013. We suggest that the popular notion that the family planning restrictions are acting as a pressure valve suppressing a pent-up demand for childbearing, particularly in rural China, is likely to be inaccurate. We also suggest that further reform of the restrictions will not solve the problems of population ageing or many of the other issues widely associated with the restrictions. We conclude that the prospects for further reform are wide-ranging, but likely to be beset by many challenges.

'Maternity migration' and the increased sex ratio at birth in Hong Kong SAR

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Hong Kong SAR (Special Administrative Region) has recently increased dramatically. Using a data set (N = 850,331) of all recorded births in Hong Kong between 1995 and 2009, we calculated SRBs by parity and immigrant status. The findings indicate a strong son preference among Mainland Chinese who have travelled to Hong Kong to give birth, especially at parity two or above. Logistic regression models show that this tendency is significantly greater among more affluent couples and remains strong even among Mainland Chinese women resident in Hong Kong for any length of time. The SRB of Hong Kong-born couples, though elevated at higher parities, is less skewed. Hong Kong has been serving as an outlet for ‘elite’ Mainland couples to circumvent family planning restrictions. The analysis also suggests the advantages of a wider set of immigrant variables over a binary construct.

Re-Examining the Fertility Assumptions for Pacific Asia in the UN's 2010 World Population Prospects

Pacific Asia is currently home to some of the lowest fertility rates – and hence the fastest aging populations – in the world. This Barnett Paper presents a systematic overview of both the reasons for this low fertility, and why it is unlikely to increase markedly in the near future. As well as a comprehensive review of scholarly opinion, the paper examines the uniquely low fertility ideals in the region; the results of a global survey of population experts on the future of Asian fertility; the assumptions of local statistical offices and the theoretical background of ‘feedback’ effects. Furthermore, the paper includes an extended discussion on the prospects for immediate fertility increase in China. This Barnett Paper systematically challenges the assumptions presented by the United Nations in their most recent global population projections which are based upon statistical models, suggesting that any assumption of fertility increase is profoundly Eurocentric and ignores the unique demographic experience of Pacific Asia over the past four decades. As such, the theoretical contribution of the text is to challenge the universality of a two-child norm as an endpoint to fertility transition. This is then considered in the context of other countries in South and South-East Asia who are in the midst of rapid fertility decline. The main policy conclusion of the paper, meanwhile, is that any assumption of an immediate increase in fertility could be extremely counter-productive in terms of leading to complacency among policymakers. Indeed, the paper argues that radical family policy interventions as well as huge cultural shifts in work-life balance and gender roles will be the only way to challenge such low fertility.

Very low, low and heavy weight births in Hong Kong sar: How important is socioeconomic and migrant status?

Identification of modifiable factors and mediators linked to low and heavy birth weight is crucial in reducing infant mortality and health care expenditure. The present paper explores the associations of socio-demographic factors and immigrant status of parents with adverse pregnancy outcomes in Hong Kong. The analysis compares very low birth weight (VLBW: <1500 g), low birth weight (LBW: ≥ 1500 g and <2500 g) and heavy birth weight births (HBW: ≥ 4500 g) with births of normal weight (≥ 2500 g and <4500 g) using multinomial regression modelling of a large dataset of 828,975 births of singletons occurring between 1995 and 2009. The findings indicate the expected significant adverse associations between teenage and advanced age of the mother with compromised birth outcomes; teenage motherhood, however, has a protective effect against HBW births. A strong socioeconomic gradient is apparent, more marked among LBW births; low educational attainment of the father, low occupational class, public housing and single motherhood are strongly related to adverse pregnancy outcomes. Regarding immigrant status, women born in South and South-East Asia exhibit consistently higher odds of a compromised outcome. Women born in Hong Kong have significantly higher chances of LBW births while Mainland Chinese and parents from developed countries face higher odds of HBW births. The study identifies high-risk groups such as teenage, older and single mothers, South-East Asians and couples of low socioeconomic profile. Implementation of policies supporting these groups would be beneficial.

The Death of the West: An alternative view

Much has been written about the ‘Death of the West’, a demise threatened by the low level of reproduction in Western countries. That fate is contrasted unfavourably with the rapid growth of the populations and economies of less developed countries, and the prospect of the numerical and political marginalization of the formerly dominant developed world. We believe that trends in European fertility have been misunderstood and that, with effort and some pain, their consequences for age structure are manageable. Many European societies also enjoy the advantages of demographic and social maturity, the resilience of established consensual democratic institutions, the rule of law, and civil society. The sizes of China and India raise problems of resource sustainability and vulnerability to climate change. China risks falling into a low-fertility trap, reinforced by urban working conditions unfriendly to family formation. Traditional patriarchal and familist cultures may depress fertility rates to unhelpfully low levels in other less developed countries.

A Re-Interpretation of the ‘Two-child Norm’ in Post-Transitional Demographic Systems: Fertility Intentions in Taiwan

Taiwan currently has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, leading to projections of rapid population ageing and decline. In common with other territories in Pacific Asia, policies designed to support childbearing have recently been introduced. Some optimism for the future success of these policies has been drawn from the fact that the ‘ideal’ number of children stated in Taiwanese surveys is over two. In this way, Taiwan appears to fit the ‘two-child norm’ model identified for Europe and North America. Furthermore, this feature has led commentators to state that Taiwan is not in a ‘low fertility trap’–where positive feedback mechanisms emanating from the normalisation of small families, slow economic growth and ageing/declining population mean attempts to increase fertility become ever less likely to succeed. Using a recent national representative survey, and arguing that ‘intentions’ are a more reliable guide to understanding the circumstances of family formation, this paper explores fertility intentions in Taiwan with a special focus on women at parity one and parity two. This will form the first full-length examination of fertility intentions in Taiwan published in English and one of the few studies of Pacific Asia that reports a micro-level analysis. We argue that using intentions should provide a better ‘barometer’ of attitudes towards childbearing in Taiwan, and that through micro-level analysis, we can better identify the predictors of intentions that could, in turn, provide useful clues both for projections as well as shaping policy responses. While we found some evidence for a ‘two-child norm’ among childless women, this could be an unrealistic ideal. This is supported by the fact that a majority of women with one child do not intend to have another.

Understanding Ultra-Low Fertility in Hong Kong

At about 1.13 births per woman, Hong Kong has one of the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in the world. With marriage rates declining and a preponderance of families with one or no children, there is concern that the elderly will not have family members to provide care and financial support. As in other advanced Asian economies, young women have made great strides in educational attainment and workforce participation, making marriage—with its primary responsibility for housework, childcare, and elderly care—less attractive. In addition, the high costs of raising a family, including housing and private tutoring for children, lead young adults to postpone marriage or even eschew marriage and parenthood altogether. Young people in Hong Kong do not appear to want more children than they actually have, which suggests that modest government programs to encourage higher fertility would probably not be successful. At any rate, the Hong Kong government, with a historic commitment to low taxes, seems disinclined to introduce any substantive measures aimed at raising fertility. One special feature of fertility and population aging in Hong Kong is the porous border with the rest of the People’s Republic of China. Women from mainland China have come to Hong Kong to give birth, artificially inflating birth rates, and the government has begun encouraging the elderly to retire on the mainland where expenses are lower.

The Family and Social Change in Chinese Societies

devoted to human-specific aspects of reproduction: contraception and assisted reproduction. He is rather scathing about some of the, primarily religious, objections to the development and use of contraception. As he points out, it is the height of hypocrisy to get very het up over the minor details of human reproductive biology manipulated by contraceptive techniques, but to allow the castration of young boys in order to keep women out of church choirs, which the Catholic church did almost up until the 20th century. The author also seems to have something of a bee in his bonnet about ‘timeworn’ sperm and eggs, that is, sperm or eggs that are not freshly released but have spent a few days hanging around the female reproductive tract. The argument is made more than once in the book that conception with such weary sex cells can have negative consequences for any children conceived. A rather substantial portion of the final chapter is devoted to the perils of using ‘natural’ methods of contraception, citing evidence that the rhythm method results in a high proportion of babies with various abnormalities. This, claims the author, is attributable to the fact that the (not infrequent) conceptions that do take place in couples using this method tend to occur at less than optimal times during the ovulatory cycle, with timeworn sperm or eggs. The book is not intended to be an academic reference tome, but an accessible popular science book. Nevertheless, it has an impressively long list of references for a popular science work, of both books and journal articles. I therefore feel confident in recommending the book to anyone who has either an academic or personal interest in human reproductive biology. There are a handful of occasions where the book perhaps errs a little too much on the popular side, for example, it devotes some time to exploding the myth that conception is only possible during a short window in each ovulatory cycle. Martin neatly exposes the flaws in early research on this topic, and points out that subsequent evidence, demonstrating that conception can occur on pretty much any day of the cycle, has possibly not received the attention it deserves. For my cautious academic taste he overemphasizes the exploding-ofmyths aspect of this topic, with the risk that the reader will come away from the book believing that much reproductive biology research is wrong, and that conception is likely on any day of the cycle. As far as I can tell, the early research was roughly right, in that conception is much more likely during midcycle; Martin just wants to emphasize that there is rather more variability in women’s cycles than the medical profession, even today, is comfortable with. I am being hypercritical here, though, since on the whole the book is a very scholarly, but also very readable account of human reproductive biology. The emphasis on cross-species comparative re‐ search does mean that there is relatively little in the book on aspects of human reproduction—such as the impact of social and cultural influences—which have few parallels in non-human species. At all times, however, the focus of the book is on what non-human research can tell us about human reproduction. The social aspects are not entirely neglected. For example, some of the research on this aspect is covered in a discussion of social influences on menstrual irregularities. Moreover, Martin doesn’t claim to comprehensively cover all aspects of human reproductive biology. As his subtitle states, his aim is to survey the ‘evolution and future of human reproduction’. A more valid criticism would be that he barely mentions the future of human reproduction, though this minor instance of false advertising does not alter my view that this is an excellent summary of the biological evolution of human reproduction.