Stuart Kirby

Identifying future repeat danger from sexual offenders against children: A focus on those convicted and those strongly suspected of such crime

This study provides a 14 – 16-year criminological follow-up, to the end of 2003, of all those convicted or strongly suspected of committing sexual offences against children in one English county, Lancashire, between 1987 and 1989 (inclusive). The main analysis focuses on 124 males (40%) convicted compared with 188 males (60%) strongly suspected but not convicted. The age and sex of the victims and the relationship between offender and victim show no significant association with conviction status, but the former group tend to be older. Of the 103 convicted adult males, 20% were reconvicted for a sexual offence, whereas of the 116 adult males strongly suspected but not convicted, 9% had a subsequent conviction for a sexual offence. However, the difference is largely explained by their predicted risk scores. The risk assessment tool used, Static-99, is shown to be remarkably effective in identifying high-risk members of the two groups. The 93 convicted and strongly suspected males in the total sample aged under 18 tend to offend against acquaintances (54%), and target a female victim (69%) and a younger (5 – 7 years) age group of children (48%). The convicted young males had a higher rate of subsequent sex convictions (14.3%) than those suspected but not convicted (1.4%). The policy implications of the findings are addressed.

Can the FIFA World Cup Football (Soccer) Tournament Be Associated with an Increase in Domestic Abuse

Objectives: This study aims to establish whether empirical evidence exists to support the anecdotal view that the Fédération Internationale de Football Association world cup football (soccer) tournament can be associated with a rise in reported domestic abuse incidents, when viewed remotely via television. Method: A quantitative analysis, using Poisson and negative binomial regression models looked at monthly and daily domestic abuse incidents reported to a police force in the North West of England across three separate tournaments (2002, 2006, and 2010). Results: The study found two statistically significant trends. First, a match day trend showed the risk of domestic abuse rose by 26 percent when the English national team won or drew, and a 38 percent increase when the national team lost. Second, a tournament trend was apparent, as reported domestic abuse incidents increased in frequency with each new tournament. Conclusion: Although this is a relatively small study, it has significant ramifications due to the global nature of televised football (soccer) tournaments. If replicated, it presents significant opportunities to identify and reduce incidents of domestic abuse associated with televised soccer games.

Policing mobile criminality: implications for police forces in the UK

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider how the national intelligence model (NIM) of policing in Britain has been affected by changing patterns of mobility, since its inception in 2004.Design/methodology/approach – Conceptually, the paper draws on the “new mobilities paradigm”. Empirically, it is based on a small, exploratory study, comprising analysis of investigations carried out over a three‐month period in 2007 and 2008, by a serious and organised crime unit in a police force in England, and 11 interviews carried out in three police forces in England. The data are used for illustrative purposes only.Findings – It is argued that increased levels of mobile criminality are impacting significantly on British police forces, placing considerable strain on the practical structures which underpin the NIM, and posing serious challenges to operational efficiency and effectiveness.Originality/value – This paper makes a contribution by linking the social changes documented in the emergent social scienc...

What is the Future Repeat Danger from Sexual Offenders against Children? Implications for Policing

This article reports a long-term follow-up study of persons detected for a sexual offence against a child between the ages of 5 and 12. The study focuses on the likelihood of a subsequent conviction, the success (or otherwise) of risk assessment and the geographical mobility of sex offenders. It is estimated that sexual recidivists coming to the attention of the police will come from three sources: just under one third from offenders who are convicted and in high-risk categories, around one third from those who are convicted and in the more numerous low/medium-risk categories and around one third from those strongly suspected of, but not convicted for, a sexual offence.

Integrating the National Intelligence Model with a ‘problem solving’ approach

The National Intelligence Model, described as a ‘model for policing’, defines a process for setting priorities and a framework in which problem solving can be applied. Its strength is a systematic approach that demands standard products and consistent methods of working, which ensure high levels of ownership and accountability. The problem solving approach can also work within this framework. It provides techniques to assist in analysis and develops the tasking and co‐ordinating mechanism through multi‐agency partnerships, which can deliver more sustainable solutions.

The Changing Pattern of Domestic Cannabis Cultivation in the United Kingdom and Its Impact on the Cannabis Market

With improvements in both technology and information, cannabis is being increasingly grown indoors for domestic use rather than being imported. This study examines 50 cannabis farms detected by an English police force and examines the characteristics of the 61 suspects associated with them. The study highlights a U.K. pattern in domestic cultivation, which is moving away from large-scale commercial cultivation, at times coordinated by Southeast Asian organized crime groups, to increased cultivation within residential premises by British citizens. Offenders range from those who have no prior criminal history to those who are serious and persistent offenders. The ramifications for law enforcement agencies and policy formers are discussed.

Implementing the citizen focus agenda: a case study in police leadership

Purpose – Although the private sector has long understood that a customer-focused service is synonymous with success, the concept is less embedded in public agencies such as the Police. Cultural studies consistently argue that police practitioners perceive “citizen focused” or “quality of service” approaches as distant to “real policing”, making the concept difficult to implement. The purpose of this paper is to explore the complex infrastructure required for the implementation of this approach, specifically focusing on senior police leadership. Design/methodology/approach – Using semi-structured interviews across a diversity of police officers and staff it provides a case study of a city Police Force in England, who attempted to introduce a citizen focused approach between 2006-2010. Findings – Senior police leaders were reported to exhibit distinct and consistent leadership styles with a “transformational” style more positively associated with the implementation of this agenda. Practical implications – ...

Bridge Over the River Crime: Mobility and the Policing of Organised Crime

Abstract This paper examines the significant disparity between the mobility of organised crime and the mobility of law enforcement through the use of Kaufmann’s (2002) three categories of motility: access, skills and appropriation. It argues that the differential mobility of organised crime and law enforcement can be accounted for by the differential insertion of these groups of actors into ‘the practice and politics of market liberalisation and the practice and politics of market criminalisation’, and suggests that it is possible to view each of these as inhabiting ‘different modernities’. It concludes that whilst mobility systems are critical to understanding the movement of these groups of actors, these systems are themselves embedded within different institutional structures that shape the opportunities to be mobile, in particular economic and political structures.

Using the UK general offender database as a means to measure and analyse organised crime

Purpose – Organised Crime is notoriously difficult to identify and measure, resulting in limited empirical evidence to inform policy makers and practitioners. The purpose of this paper is to explore the feasibility of identifying a greater number of organised crime offenders, currently captured but invisible, within existing national general crime databases. Design/methodology/approach – All 2.1 million recorded offenders, captured over a four-year period on the UK Police National Computer, were filtered across three criteria associated with organised crime (co-offending, commission of specific offences, three years imprisonment or more). The 4,109 “organized crime” offenders, identified by the process, were compared with “general” and “serious” offender control groups across a variety of personal and demographic variables. Findings – Organised crime prosecutions are not random but concentrate in specific geographic areas and constitute 0.2 per cent of the offender population. Offenders can be differentia...

From reducing fear to improving community confidence — a change of emphasis for practitioners

Although the ‘fear of crime’ has generated significant academic interest, the lack of clarity concerning definition, prevalence and concentration has generated difficulties for community safety practitioners when implementing operational initiatives. This article explores the experience of the Norfolk Constabulary, and shows how the positive concept of ‘improving public confidence’ allowed the organisation to more effectively design and implement community safety initiatives, to change public perception.