Stuart Parkinson

Simplicity out of complexity in environmental modelling: Occam's razor revisited

While large models based on a deterministic-reductionist philosophy have an important part to play in environmental research, it is advantageous to consider alternative modelling methodologies which overtly acknowledge the poorly defined and uncertain nature of most environmental systems. The paper discusses this topic and presents an integrated statistical modelling procedure which involves three main methodological tools: uncertainty and sensitivity studies based on Monte Carlo simulation techniques; dominant mode analysis using a new method of combined linearization and model-order reduction; and data-based mechanistic modelling. This novel approach is illustrated by two practical examples: modelling the global carbon cycle in relation to possible climate change; and modelling a horticultural glasshouse for the purposes of automatic climate control system design.

Uncertainty, Complexity and Concepts of Good Science in Climate Change Modelling: Are GCMs the Best Tools?

In this paper we explore the dominant position of a particular style of scientific modelling in the provision of policy-relevant scientific knowledge on future climate change. We describe how the apical position of General Circulation Models (GCMs) appears to follow ‘logically’ both from conventional understandings of scientific representation and the use of knowledge, so acquired, in decision-making. We argue, however, that both of these particular understandings are contestable. In addition to questioning their current policy-usefulness, we draw upon existing analyses of GCMs which discuss model trade-offs, errors, and the effects of parameterisations, to raise questions about the validity of the conception of complexity in conventional accounts. An alternative approach to modelling, incorporating concepts of uncertainty, is discussed, and an illustrative example given for the case of the global carbon cycle. In then addressing the question of how GCMs have come to occupy their dominant position, we argue that the development of global climate change science and global environmental ‘management’ frameworks occurs concurrently and in a mutually supportive fashion, so uniting GCMs and environmental policy developments in certain industrialised nations and international organisations. The more basic questions about what kinds of commitments to theories of knowledge underpin different models of ‘complexity’ as a normative principle of ‘good science’ are concealed in this mutual reinforcement. Additionally, a rather technocratic policy orientation to climate change may be supported by such science, even though it involves political choices which deserve to be more widely debated.

Localisation of UK food production: an analysis using land area and energy as indicators

A variety of policy strategies have been proposed and argued as capable of delivering more sustainable food systems, and accompanying indicators have been developed to analyse the implications of these strategies for specific situations. This paper focuses on the policy strategy suggesting that localisation of food production leads to more sustainable societies. A case study of UK food production, and imports and exports of foodstuffs, is presented to explore the feasibility of operationalising this strategy, using land area and energy use as indicators. Novel features of the method used in the case study include: analysis at country level in specific foodstuff categories, and use of actual data on production and consumption of foodstuffs. The results show that, based on the land use indicator, localisation of UK food production is possible, although this would involve considerable changes in individuals’ food consumption patterns. However, would implementation of such a strategy actually contribute to a more sustainable society? Using the indicators of land area and energy use, this question cannot be answered without additional consideration of the trade-offs between the UK and other countries in yields from equivalent crops, and energy requirements for agricultural production.

A Dynamic Life-Cycle Energy Model of Mobile Phone Take-back and Recycling

Summary This paper reports the results of a life-cycle energy model of a pilot mobile phone “take-back” scheme carried out by the Cellular Phones Take-back Working Group of the European Trade Organisation for the Telecommunication and Professional Electronics Industry (ECTEL) in the United Kingdom (UK) and Sweden during 1997. Using data collected from the scheme, the model calculates a snapshot “energy balance” associated with mobile phone take-back for a variety of phone types and take-back scenarios in the year 1997. It also develops a time-series model for the UK, describing the environmental implications of different take-back scenarios in the future. Because of its emphasis on interactive, dynamic modeling techniques, the methodology developed for the life-cycle model has the potential for wide application in regulatory and industrial decision making.

Accounting for flexibility against uncertain baselines: lessons from case studies in the eastern European energy sector

The Kyoto Protocol defines two project-based flexibility mechanisms: joint implementation (JI) and the cleandevelopment mechanism (CDM). The main methodological problem associated with both these mechanisms isthe choice of an appropriate baseline: since the baseline is, by definition, counterfactual, it imposes considerable uncertainty on the accounting framework. Little work to date has been carried out on trying to estimate how largethis uncertainty might be for particular project types. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing an approach to baseline construction which explicitly acknowledges this uncertainty. This approach is illustrated through theexamination of pilot JI projects in the energy sector in eastern Europe, and then discussed in terms of its implicationsfor climate policy. The results presented are estimates of the range of counterfactual uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission reductions based on the construction of a number of possible baselines for each project. This range is found to be about ±35% for demand side projects, ±45% for heat supply projects, ±55% for cogeneration projects, and ±60% for electricity supply projects. Estimates of uncertainty in the costs of the pilot projects are also found to be high. The paper discusses the problems arising from such large uncertainty and starts to indicate how this uncertainty may be managed.

Modelling material cascades -- frameworks for the environmental assessment of recycling systems

The authors develop a methodological framework for the environmental assessment of materials recycling systems. Typically such systems exhibit both dynamic and non-linear behaviour. By contrast, many existing environmental assessment techniques (such as Life Cycle Assessment and Materials Flow Analysis) employ a static linear model of the underlying system. This paper first reviews some of the attempts to develop dynamic non-linear models for materials systems. It then discusses the structural peculiarities of recycling systems drawing attention in particular to the presence of dynamic features (such as time lags between production and disposal) and non-linearities (such as the dependency of scrap collection energies on the flow of material through the recycling loop). The principal analytic task of this paper is to construct an illustrative case study, in which different modelling techniques are used to assess the energy requirements of a hypothetical recycling system possessing both dynamic and non-linear features. The difference in system energy intensity derived using the different types of model are analysed. Finally, the paper discusses the policy implications of these results.

JI/CDM crediting under the Kyoto Protocol: does `interim period banking' help or hinder GHG emissions reduction?

Abstract The concept of Joint Implementation (JI) has been incorporated into the Kyoto Protocol, under both Articles 6 and 12 (the Clean Development Mechanism or CDM). However, a number of outstanding issues remain to be settled: one such issue being the ‘banking’ of credits earned from JI projects. Currently, the Protocol specifies that ‘donor’ countries funding JI projects under the CDM may receive credits from 2000 and ‘bank’ them for use in contributing to their emissions target. Since the emission targets have only been agreed for the period 2008–2012 inclusive, we argue that credited CDM action between 2000 and 2008 could be offset by uncontrolled increases elsewhere in the donor country during this time, and hence such crediting could lead to ‘relaxation’ of the donor country targets. We detail an analysis which attempts to estimate the level of such a relaxation and conclude that it is not negligible. Hence we suggest that CDM credits should be multiplied by a ‘crediting fraction’, calculated to be between 40% and 70%, to compensate. We then discuss this in respect of the ongoing climate change negotiations, particularly considering the possibility of this sort of banking being introduced for JI projects under Article 6.

Beyond joint implementation -- designing flexibility into global climate policy

Abstract This paper discusses the design and implementation of certain project-based flexibility mechanisms introduced under the Kyoto Protocol. It argues that such mechanisms labour under three specific difficulties: a proliferation of operational forms, a multiplicity of underlying objectives, and the irreducible uncertainty arising from the counterfactual nature of the baseline. In the light of these difficulties, the authors set out an approach to the evaluation of joint implementation which has three main strands. Firstly, they investigate explicitly the impacts of baseline uncertainty on the emission reductions and costs associated with certain case study greenhouse gas abatement projects. Next, they set out the basis for an operational framework for flexibility in which streamlined procedures (baseline standardisation e.g.) are combined with institutional safeguards (baseline revision, limited crediting life, etc.). Finally, they suggest a methodology for evaluating each such framework in a given context, against the range of underlying objectives. The empirical results reported in this paper are based on a study of certain energy-sector case study projects implemented jointly between Northern and Eastern European countries. Nonetheless, the conceptual arguments developed here are relevant to all of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms.

Searching for baselines constructing joint implementation project emission reductions

Abstract Joint implementation of emission reductions by countries is an important component of the Kyoto Protocol. The calculation of emission reductions from projects requires the definition of baselines that describe what would have happened in the absence of the JI projects. Baselines do not occur and are described as counterfactual. This paper applies a sociological perspective to analyse the arguments used to support different baselines by the actors involved in climate change policy. It concludes that environmental arguments should be given prominence in how baselines are defined to ensure that the environmental objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change are preserved.

JI and CDM: Lessons from Pilot Project Assessment

This paper discusses two important issues concerning the use of Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol: — uncertainty in estimates of reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and — contribution to and assessment of sustainable development. The analysis is based on assessments of several operational projects which reduce GHG emissions in countries in transition and developing countries. The projects are concentrated in the energy sector. When considering uncertainty in the estimates of GHG emissions reduction from JI/CDM projects, there are two main issues: construction of the baseline and accuracy of monitoring. Analysis across a range of project types led to estimates of baseline uncertainty which vary from 25% to 60%. Recommendations are made for measures to manage the uncertainty. In terms of contribution to sustainable development, the paper reports analysis of the case study projects in this context and makes recommendations for project aspects which are positive in this respect.