Su Buda

Observed trends and jumps of climate change over Lake Poyang Basin,China:1961-2003

Based on observed data of 14 meteorological stations and six main hydrological stations in Lake Poyang basin,the trends and jumps of temperature,precipitation,pan evaporation (PE),reference evapotranspiration (ETr) and discharge are analyzed from 1961 to 2003.The results indicate that the temperature jumped in 1990, then it dominated an upward trend ever since 1990.Significant positive trend was noticed after 1986 in winter.As to precipitation,it changed abruptly in 1990.In 1992,the heavier rainstorm resulted in more precipitation in sum- mer.Significant negative trend of PE and ETr was found,especially in summer.It was found that summer ETr fell sharply after 1992.As for spatial distribution,significant climate change areas are found in the Raohe River basin, the Xinjiang River basin and the lower reaches of the Ganjiang River basin.The climate change trends above-men- tioned,that is coincident with the trend of the Yangtze River basin,are more obvious in 1990s.As a result,the runoff to the Lake Poyang also rose up.In 1990s,warm and humid climate tendency was strengthened.The climate change of Lake Poyang basin is much significant in the Yangtze River basin.

Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

Abstract Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling (CCLM) for 1961–2000, the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined, and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed. By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation (2011–2050) under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM, trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed. Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China, distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other; their spatial correlation coefficients are above 0.75. The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China. It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region, central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly, and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050. The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions, also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years. Citation Cao, L.-G., J. Zhong, B.-D. Su, et al., 2013: Probability distribution and projected trends of daily precipitation in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4(3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.153.