Suparna Chakraborty

Business Cycle Accounting of the BRIC Economies

Abstract Drawing upon the experiences of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), we apply the Business Cycle Accounting methodology to study the phenomenon of rapid economic growth. We document that while efficiency wedges do contribute in a large part to growth, especially in Brazil and Russia, there is an increasing importance of investment wedges especially in the late 2000s, noted in China and India. The results are typically related to the stages of development with Brazil and Russia coming off a recession in the 1990s to grow in the 2000s, while India and China were on a comparatively stable growth path. Our results suggest, at least for the BRICs examined, that while efficiency wedges play a major role in jump-starting recovery, investment wedges are equally important for sustaining the recovery. Relating wedge patterns to institutional and financial reforms, we find that financial market developments and effective governance in BRICs in the last decade are consistent with improvements in investment and efficiency wedges that led to growth.

Business Cycle Accounting: How Important are Technology Shocks as a Propagation Mechanism? Some New Evidence from Japan

This paper investigates the role of technology shocks as a propagation mechanism for business cycles using the new technique of business cycle accounting (BCA) and some new evidence from Japan. BCA technique enables us to model the economy as a standard growth model, but extends it to allow multiple propagation channels (referred to as wedges). Applying it to Japan during the period 1980 to 2000, I find that though technology shocks play an important role in propagating market frictions, they are by no means enough to account for the observed economic fluctuations. Investment wedges play a major role, something that standard RBC models fail to recognize and consequently tends to overemphasize the role of technology shocks.

Real Estate Cycles, Asset Redistribution, And The Dynamics Of A Crisis

In this paper, I explore the dynamics of real estate market fluctuations and business cycle co-movements in a neoclassical setting. Applying a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of collateral constraints with asset reallocation to Japan, I find that public policy shocks account well for the business cycle dynamics. In particular, taxes on land holdings of households mimic the impact of a housing preference shock, and if volatile enough, can trigger large asset price fluctuations. However, in the absence of volatility, the impact on prices is intrinsically linked to the persistence of shocks. Dependence on fixed assets such as real estate to secure collateral-based financing significantly amplifies the effect of initial shocks on the real macro aggregates. The financial accelerator works through the “redistribution channel,†shifting a large fraction of the collateral between constrained and unconstrained agents in response to an external stimuli.

Revisiting the Level Playing Field: International Lending Responses to Divergences in Japanese Bank Capital Regulations from the Basel Accord

The 1998 passage of the Land Revaluation Law in Japan provided regulatory forbearance to Japanese banks in the form of a regulatory capital infusion. We test whether this divergence from international bank capital requirements had an impact on Japanese bank lending behavior. Because this natural experiment created an exogenous supply shock, we can utilize it to disentangle demand and supply effects in order to determine the impact on Japanese bank lending in both the U.S. and Japan. We find that the infusion of regulatory capital had no aggregate impact on Japanese bank lending in Japan, but it did change the allocation of loans. Well-capitalized Japanese banks shifted their lending from low margin, less capital intensive mortgage lending toward higher yielding, more capital intensive commercial loans. Moreover, we find evidence consistent with a shifting of Japanese bank lending activity away from U.S. lending(which is predominately real estate based) to domestic lending to fund manufacturing. Thus, we find that divergences from international capital standards have significant allocative effects on lending, as well as on bank profitability.

Amplifying Business Cycles Through Credit Constraints

Theory suggests that endogenous borrowing constraints amplify the impact of external shocks on the economy. How big is the amplification? In this paper, we quantitatively investigate this question in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints under two alternatives: (1) borrowing constraint endogenously depends on the borrowers net worth (2) borrowing constraint is exogenous. Calibrating our model to the Japanese economy, we find evidence of significant amplification in our impulse responses. Quantitatively applying the model to the Japanese case, we find TFP can significantly account for the Japanese business cycle during the period 1980 to 2000 and the impact is much amplified when we assume that borrowing constraints are endogenously determined.

Technology as a Channel of Economic Growth in India

After decades of slow growth since Independence from the British Raj, Indian economy registered its own small miracle, when growth rate of GDP per capita surpassed the long term growth rate of many advanced economies. What caused this miracle? In this paper, we search for an answer in the neoclassical growth model. We use productivity as measured by Solow residual as our exogenous shock. Our idea is to quantitatively measure to what extent ‡fluctuations in productivity can account for observed ‡uctuations in macro economic aggregates in India. We find that exogenous fl‡uctuations in productivity can well account for fl‡uctuations in output during the boom periods of 1982 to 1988 and 1993 to 2002. However, fluctuations in productivity alone results in a much worse drop in ouput during 1988 to 1993 than observed in the economy.

Who gives FDI to Whom? Is the answer in our common genes?

Does genetic matches based on common allele across diverse populations as determined by historical migration patterns play a role in economic decision- making today? We explore this question using ...

Lending to Unhealthy Firms in Japan During the Lost Decade: Distinguishing between Technical and Financial Health

We investigate the misallocation of credit in Japan associated with banks’ evergreening loans, distinguishing between two types of firm distress: (perhaps temporary) financial distress and technical distress, which reflects weak operational capabilities, as indicated by low total factor productivity. We show that previous evidence related to firms’ financial health is problematic due to the mixing of loan-demand and loan-supply effects. Using a direct measure of operational health, we provide unambiguous, direct evidence of evergreening behavior, as well as confirming evidence based on the relative impacts on subsequent firm viability of loans by bank types with different incentives to evergreen loans.

Searching for Suze Orman: Women Empowerment and its Effect on Financial Behavior

Using an unique, cross-country survey conducted by the World Bank, we document that women are under-represented in financial markets, with significantly less number of women having financial accounts as compared to men. Often, family reliance is a major reason for not having an account. Nondiscrimination laws in the work-place promote financial inclusion, but giving women a voice and a legal recourse to report discrimination are equally important for encouraging financial independence.

Global Imbalances and Lending Constraints in a Standard Business Cycle Model

Does increased international liquidity, the saving glut explain the recent deterioration of US current account balances? In this paper, we develop a simple, two country real business cycle model to answer this question. The salient feature of our model is that lending by one country is constrained by its wealth by a regulatory or institutional lending constraint. We allow shocks to this lending constraint to capture a countrys ability to lend as financial regulations evolve and the countrys financial markets to develop. Applying our model to the test case of Japan (lender) and the US, we find that our general equilibrium model captures well, how differential productivity growth affects the flow of capital from the lending country (Japan) to the U.S., and how the lending constraint interacts with productivity growth to impact the borrowing country, or the U.S. current account.