Suresh H. Moolgavkar

Age-specific incidence of cancer: Phases, transitions, and biological implications

The observation that the age-specific incidence curve of many carcinomas is approximately linear on a double logarithmic plot has led to much speculation regarding the number and nature of the critical events involved in carcinogenesis. By a consideration of colorectal and pancreatic cancers in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry we show that the log-log model provides a poor description of the data, and that a much better description is provided by a multistage model that predicts two basic phases in the age-specific incidence curves, a first exponential phase until the age of ≈60 followed by a linear phase after that age. These two phases in the incidence curve reflect two phases in the process of carcinogenesis. Paradoxically, the early-exponential phase reflects events between the formation (initiation) of premalignant clones in a tissue and the clinical detection of a malignant tumor, whereas the linear phase reflects events leading to initiated cells that give rise to premalignant lesions because of abrogated growth/differentiation control. This model is consistent with Knudsons idea that renewal tissue, such as the colon, is converted into growing tissue before malignant transformation. The linear phase of the age-specific incidence curve represents this conversion, which is the result of recessive inactivation of a gatekeeper gene, such as the APC gene in the colon and the CDKN2A gene in the pancreas.

Pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas in SEER: age effects and temporal trends, 1973–2005

We analyzed mesothelioma incidence in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database over the period 1973–2005 using extensions of the age–period–cohort (APC) models. In these analyses, the usual non-specific age effects of the conventional APC models were replaced by hazard functions derived from two multistage models of carcinogenesis, the Armitage–Doll model and the two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model. The extended APC models described the incidence data on pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas well. After adjustment for temporal trends, the data suggest that the age-specific incidence rates of both pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas are identical in men and women. Driven largely by birth cohort effects, age-adjusted rates of pleural mesothelioma among men rose from about 7.5xa0perxa0millionxa0person-years in 1973 to about 20xa0perxa0million person-years in the early 1990s and appear to be stable or declining thereafter. Age-adjusted rates of pleural mesothelioma among women have remained more or less constant at about 2.5xa0perxa0millionxa0person-years over the period 1973–2005. Age-adjusted rates for peritoneal mesothelioma in both men (1.2xa0perxa0millionxa0person-years) and women (0.8xa0perxa0millionxa0person-years) exhibit no temporal trends over the period of the study. We estimate that approximately 94,000 cases of pleural and 15,000 cases of peritoneal mesothelioma will occur in the US over the period 2005–2050.

Critical considerations in evaluating scientific evidence of health effects of ambient ozone: A conference report

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), under the authority of the Clean Air Act (CAA), is required to promulgate National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQSs) for criteria air pollutants, including ozone. Each NAAQS includes a primary health-based standard and a secondary or welfare-based standard. This paper considers only the science used for revision of the primary standard for ozone in 2008. This paper summarizes deliberations of a small group of scientists who met in June 2007 to review the scientific information informing the EPA Administrator’s proposed revision of the 1997 standard. The Panel recognized that there is no scientific methodology that, in the absence of judgment, can define the precise numerical level, related averaging time, and statistical form of the NAAQS. The selection of these elements of the NAAQS involves policy judgments that should be informed by scientific information and analyses. Thus, the Panel members did not feel it appropriate to offer either their individual or collective judgment on the specific numerical level of the NAAQS for ozone. The Panel deliberations focused on the scientific data available on the health effects of exposure to ambient concentrations of ozone, controlled ozone exposure studies with human volunteers, long-term epidemiological studies, time- series epidemiological studies, human panel studies, and toxicological investigations. The deliberations also dealt with the issue of background levels of ozone of nonanthropogenic origin and issues involved with conducting formal risk assessments of the health impacts of current and prospective levels of ambient ozone. The scientific issues that were central to the EPA Administrator’s 2008 revision of the NAAQS for ozone will undoubtedly also be critical to the next review of the ozone standard. That review should begin very soon if it is to be completed within the 5-year cycle specified in the CAA. It is hoped that this Report will stimulate discussion of these scientific issues, conduct of additional research, and conduct of new analyses that will provide an improved scientific basis for the policy judgment that will have to be made by a future EPA Administrator in considering potential revision of the ozone standard.

Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality: Time-Related Factors in Exposure and Risk

To develop a quantitative exposure-response relationship between concentrations and durations of inhaled diesel engine exhaust (DEE) and increases in lung cancer risks, we examined the role of temporal factors in modifying the estimated effects of exposure to DEE on lung cancer mortality and characterized risk by mine type in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort, which followed 12,315 workers through December 1997. We analyzed the data using parametric functions based on concepts of multistage carcinogenesis to directly estimate the hazard functions associated with estimated exposure to a surrogate marker of DEE, respirable elemental carbon (REC). The REC-associated risk of lung cancer mortality in DEMS is driven by increased risk in only one of four mine types (limestone), with statistically significant heterogeneity by mine type and no significant exposure-response relationship after removal of the limestone mine workers. Temporal factors, such as duration of exposure, play an important role in determining the risk of lung cancer mortality following exposure to REC, and the relative risk declines after exposure to REC stops. There is evidence of effect modification of risk by attained age. The modifying impact of temporal factors and effect modification by age should be addressed in any quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of DEE. Until there is a better understanding of why the risk appears to be confined to a single mine type, data from DEMS cannot reliably be used for QRA.

Validity of geographically modeled environmental exposure estimates

Abstract Geographic modeling is increasingly being used to estimate long-term environmental exposures in epidemiologic studies of chronic disease outcomes. However, without validation against measured environmental concentrations, personal exposure levels, or biologic doses, these models cannot be assumed a priori to be accurate. This article discusses three examples of epidemiologic associations involving exposures estimated using geographic modeling, and identifies important issues that affect geographically modeled exposure assessment in these areas. In air pollution epidemiology, geographic models of fine particulate matter levels have frequently been validated against measured environmental levels, but comparisons between ambient and personal exposure levels have shown only moderate correlations. Estimating exposure to magnetic fields by using geographically modeled distances is problematic because the error is larger at short distances, where field levels can vary substantially. Geographic models of environmental exposure to pesticides, including paraquat, have seldom been validated against environmental or personal levels, and validation studies have yielded inconsistent and typically modest results. In general, the exposure misclassification resulting from geographic models of environmental exposures can be differential and can result in bias away from the null even if non-differential. Therefore, geographic exposure models must be rigorously constructed and validated if they are to be relied upon to produce credible scientific results to inform epidemiologic research. To our knowledge, such models have not yet successfully predicted an association between an environmental exposure and a chronic disease outcome that has eventually been established as causal, and may not be capable of doing so in the absence of thorough validation.

A systematic review of occupational exposure to synthetic vitreous fibers and mesothelioma.

Abstract Objective We investigated whether available epidemiological and toxicological data suggest an increased risk of mesothelioma among workers exposed to synthetic vitreous fibers (SVF). Methods We conducted a systematic review of epidemiological studies on the risk of mesothelioma among workers exposed to SVF, and toxicological studies on SVF and mesothelioma. Results Seven cohort studies were conducted among workers employed in production of rock/slag wool, glass wool, or continuous glass filament in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Of the six deaths from mesothelioma identified in these studies, three had exposure to asbestos. A review of death certificates in a study of rock wool production workers identified one additional probable death. A formal comparison with expected deaths is not feasible. Four community-based case–control studies were identified, of which three reported an increased risk among SVF-exposed workers. The number of cases not exposed to asbestos was less, and residual confounding from asbestos exposure misclassification may explain the association in these studies. The toxicology review of SVF suggested that they present a low hazard mostly due to their low biopersistence, typically with a half-life in rat studies of tens of days compared to amphibole asbestos which has a half-life of 400–500 days. Conclusions The combined evidence from epidemiology and toxicology provide little evidence that exposure to SVF increases the risk of mesothelioma.

Reanalysis of the DEMS Nested Case-Control Study of Lung Cancer and Diesel Exhaust: Suitability for Quantitative Risk Assessment

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 2012 upgraded its hazard characterization of diesel engine exhaust (DEE) to “carcinogenic to humans.” The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort and nested case-control studies of lung cancer mortality in eight U.S. nonmetal mines were influential in IARC’s determination. We conducted a reanalysis of the DEMS case-control data to evaluate its suitability for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Our reanalysis used conditional logistic regression and adjusted for cigarette smoking in a manner similar to the original DEMS analysis. However, we included additional estimates of DEE exposure and adjustment for radon exposure. In addition to applying three DEE exposure estimates developed by DEMS, we applied six alternative estimates. Without adjusting for radon, our results were similar to those in the original DEMS analysis: all but one of the nine DEE exposure estimates showed evidence of an association between DEE exposure and lung cancer mortality, with trend slopes differing only by about a factor of two. When exposure to radon was adjusted, the evidence for a DEE effect was greatly diminished, but was still present in some analyses that utilized the three original DEMS DEE exposure estimates. A DEE effect was not observed when the six alternative DEE exposure estimates were utilized and radon was adjusted. No consistent evidence of a DEE effect was found among miners who worked only underground. This article highlights some issues that should be addressed in any use of the DEMS data in developing a QRA for DEE.

Two Mutation Model for Carcinogenesis: Relative Roles of Somatic Mutations and Cell Proliferation in Determining Risk

Two experimental data sets are analyzed within the framework of a two-event model for carcinogenesis. In the first, the number and size distribution of altered hepatic foci, which are thought to be premaligant lesions, are analyzed as functions of dose of an administered agent (N-Nitrosomorpholine, NNM). Definitions of initiation and promotion potencies are proposed. Results of the analysis indicate that NNM is a strong initiator and a weak promoter. In the second, the time to appearance and the probability of malignant lung tumors in rats exposed to radon are analyzed as functions of total exposure and rate of exposure. The results indicate that fractionation of exposure increases the lifetime probability of tumor, and that the efficiency of fractionation can be explained by the relative effects of radon daughters on the mutation rates and the kinetics of growth of initiated cells.

A review and critique of U.S. EPA's risk assessments for asbestos

Abstract U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently conducted a risk assessment for exposure to Libby amphibole asbestos that is precedent-setting for two reasons. First, the Agency has not previously conducted a risk assessment for a specific type of asbestos fiber. Second, the risk assessment includes not only an inhalation unit risk (IUR) for the cancer endpoints, but also a reference concentration (RfC) for nonmalignant disease. In this paper, we review the procedures used by the Agency for both cancer and nonmalignant disease and discuss the strengths and limitations of these procedures. The estimate of the RfC uses the benchmark dose method applied to pleural plaques in a small subcohort of vermiculite workers in Marysville, Ohio. We show that these data are too sparse to inform the exposure–response relationship in the low-exposure region critical for estimation of an RfC, and that different models with very different exposure–response shapes fit the data equally well. Furthermore, pleural plaques do not represent a disease condition and do not appear to meet the EPAs definition of an adverse condition. The estimation of the IUR for cancer is based on a subcohort of Libby miners, discarding the vast majority of lung cancers and mesotheliomas in the entire cohort and ignoring important time-related factors in exposure and risk, including effect modification by age. We propose that an IUR based on an endpoint that combines lung cancer, mesothelioma, and nonmalignant respiratory disease (NMRD) in this cohort would protect against both malignant and nonmalignant disease. However, the IUR should be based on the entire cohort of Libby miners, and the analysis should properly account for temporal factors. We illustrate our discussion with our own independent analyses of the data used by the Agency.

Cancer mortality and quantitative oil production in the Amazon region of Ecuador, 1990-2010.

PurposeControversy persists over whether cancer risk is increased in communities surrounding oil fields, especially in the Oriente region of Ecuador. This ecologic study uses quantitative exposure data, updated mortality data, and improved statistical methods to study the impact of oil exploration and production activities on cancer mortality rates in the Oriente.MethodsCancer mortality rates in the Oriente in 1990 through 2010 were compared between seven cantons with active oil exploration and production as of 1990 and thirteen cantons with little or no such activities. Poisson regression was used to estimate mortality rate ratios (RRs) adjusted for age and sex. In a two-stage analysis, canton-specific log-RRs were regressed against quantitative estimates of cumulative barrels of oil produced and well-years per canton, adjusting for canton-level demographic and socioeconomic factors.ResultsOverall and site-specific cancer mortality rates were comparable between oil-producing and non-oil-producing cantons. For overall cancer mortality in males and females combined, the RR comparing oil-producing to non-oil-producing cantons was 0.85 [95xa0% confidence interval (CI) 0.72–1.00]. For leukemia mortality, the corresponding RR was 0.80 (95xa0% CI 0.57–1.13). Results also revealed no excess of mortality from acute non-lymphocytic, myeloid, or childhood leukemia. Standardized mortality ratios were consistent with RRs. Canton-specific RRs showed no pattern in relation to oil production volume or well-years.ConclusionsResults from this first ecologic study to incorporate quantitative measures of oil exploration and production showed no association between the extent of these activities and cancer mortality, including from cancers associated with benzene exposure.