Susan C. Streufert

Effects of information relevance on decision making in complex environments.

Previous research based on predictions of complexity theory has often varied information load and measured characteristics of group decision making. A reinterpretation of related data on success and failure effects suggests that the obtained load effects may be confounded by simultaneous variation of information load and information relevance. To begin studying the separate effects of the two variables, information load was held constant at the previously determined optimal level and information relevance was varied as a proportion of load. It was found that integrated decision making (a complex decision response) was modified by changes in information relevance; but that respondent decision making and information search (simple decision responses) did not change. The results were tentatively interpreted to suggest that complex decision making varies with relevance, while simple decision making varies with information load. It was suggested that complexity theory might be correspondingly modified.

Information load, time spent, and risk taking in complex decision making

The effect of the quantity of information which decision makers receive per unit time and the effect of the length of time spent in decision-making groups on the degree of risk taking in decision making were examined. A simulated decision-making task of some complexity was used for data collection to permit comparison with results obtained in simpler laboratory settings. It was found that risk taking increases with time spent in decision making and reaches highest levels under optimal information conditions. Parallels to studies in simpler environments were examined.

Effects of failure in a complex decision-making task on perceptions of cost, profit and certainty☆

Abstract Dyad decision-making teams spent seven consecutive half-hour periods playing a complex internation game containing tactical, economic, negotiation and intelligence components. Although the subjects assumed that they were affecting their environment, the game was pre-programmed. Teams received seven informative messages per one-half hour period. Increasing failure was induced by increasing the proportion of failure to neutral messages over periods. After each one-half hour period, subjects indicated their present and anticipated cost, profit and certainty estimates on rating scales. Increasing failure produced generally rising cost level estimates. A discrepancy between actually experienced (present) and anticipated cost levels under low failure levels produced an “optimistic” outlook by subjects that expressed itself in initially steady profit estimates and initially rising certainty estimates. Under higher failure levels, profit and certainty estimates were inversely related to (increasing) cost estimates. It is suggested that under low failure levels, perceptions of psycho-economic conditions in complex environments may be multiply determined. However, as failure levels increase (and optimism is absent), perceptions of psycho-economic conditions may be determined by the most salient environmental characteristic.

The perception of information relevance

The effect of experimentally induced information relevance on Ss’ perception of information relevance and information importance in complex environments was investigated. Ss received 10 informative messages in each of four Y2-h periods. Twenty per cent, 40%, 60%, or 80% of that information was relevant (permitted meaningful responding). A constant 80% of all information was important. Ss’ perceptions of information relevance and importance were obtained on rating scales. It was found that experimentally induced increasing relevance resulted in increasing perceptions of relevance and importance; however, perceptions of relevance and importance were higher than induced relevance at all but the 80% point.