Susan Howick

Adding value to performance measurement by using system dynamics and multicriteria analysis

The design, implementation and use of adequate performance measurement and management frameworks can play an important role if organisations are to succeed in an increasingly complex, interdependent and changing world. Yet, despite widespread recognition of the importance of performance assessment, there are some issues that require further study if measurement systems are to be effective in the process of management through monitoring and decision making. This article proposes and seeks to illustrate that the use of system dynamics and multicriteria decision analysis, as part of a broader framework for performance measurement, can address some of the issues identified. The use of these approaches, independently and in an integrated manner, provides a means of exploring the dynamic complexity of organisations, making explicit trade‐offs between performance measures, and assessing the impacts of initiatives to improve performance, thereby enhancing understanding and ultimately contributing to the improvement of organisational performance.

The role of feedback dynamics in disruption and delay on the nature of disruption and delay (D&D) in major projects

The idea that small disruptions and delays can cause serious consequences to the life of a major project, well beyond that which might be easily attributed to their direct impact, is well established. Nevertheless, the nature of this ‘delay and disruption’ is still not fully understood. This paper discusses some of the issues and difficulties in gaining a full understanding. In particular it presents the variety of ways in which disruptions occur, and the variety of consequences that may unfold. It also focuses attention on a number of issues that arise when ‘normal’ methods of analysis of complex projects might be used, for example, the analysis and costing of change orders and the use of network analysis. The role of dynamic feedback and the ‘portfolio effect’ is introduced, particularly with reference to project acceleration and changing productivity.

Mixing OR methods in practice: Past, present and future directions

Although mixing of OR methods is an area of increasing interest to the OR community, there has been little discussion regarding generic lessons that can be learnt from mixing methods in practice. The aim of this paper is to carry out such an analysis through considering generic lessons that may be associated with mixing methods, regardless of the methods chosen. To identify these lessons, published case studies on how OR methods have been mixed are analysed giving rise to a number of themes revealing the lessons. These themes include; the implications from the use of different facilitators/modellers, how methods have been mixed together, the nature of the modelling interventions, the client value and the rationale given for mixing methods. The paper discusses the lessons learnt in each of these themes and presents opportunities for future work.

The impact of disruption and delay when compressing large projects: going for incentives?

Demands by clients for earlier delivery after a project has started are increasing. This paper investigates the consequential disruption and delay that follows from the contractor accepting these demands. Explorations are carried out using a System Dynamics model based upon a large model constructed to represent the complexity of a claim for disruption and delay in relation to a specific mega-project. The model used for the explorations has been validated further using information gathered during work on other claim projects. The model enables the impact of disruption and delay resulting from the holistic and dynamic impact of a compressed delivery date to be assessed in relation to two specific and typical options. Use of the model suggests that the probability seems slight of finding the highly specific circumstances where there is any certainty in an outcome of early delivery at little extra cost.

Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modelling for construction risk management

The complex structure of construction project risks arises from their internal and external interactions with their dynamic nature throughout the life cycle of the project. A system dynamics (SD) approach to construction project risk management is presented, including risk analysis and response process. Owing to the imprecise and uncertain nature of risks, fuzzy logic is integrated into system dynamics modelling structure. Risk magnitudes are defined by a fuzzy logic based risk magnitude prediction system. Zadehs extension principle and interval arithmetic is employed in the SD simulation model to present the system outcomes considering uncertainties in the magnitude of risks resulting from the risk magnitude prediction system. The performance of the proposed method is assessed by employing the method in the risk management plan of a sample project. The impact of a sample risk is quantified and efficiency of different alternative response scenarios is assessed. The proposed approach supports different stages of the risk management process considering both the systemic and uncertain nature of risks.

Building Confidence in Models for Multiple Audiences: The Modelling Cascade

This paper reports on a model building process developed to enable multiple audiences, particularly non-experts, to appreciate the validity of the models being built and their outcomes. The process is a four stage reversible cascade. This cascade provides a structured, auditable/transparent, formalized process from “real world” interviews generating a rich qualitative model through two intermediate steps before arriving at a quantitative simulation model. There are a number of advantages of the cascade process including; achieving comprehensiveness, developing organizational learning, testing the veracity of multiple perspectives, modeling transparency, achieving common understanding across many audiences and promoting confidence building in the models. The paper, based on extensive work with organizations, discusses both the cascade process and its inherent benefits.

Systemic risk assessment: a case study

Project Risk Registers have been used extensively for many years. However, they do not account for the interaction between risks, for example, the occurrence of one risk exacerbating other risks or portfolios of risks being more significant than the sum of the individual risks. This leads to the need to consider ‘risk systemicity’ as a part of risk analysis. This paper reports on a specific case for a large multinational project based organization, one that the authors had been involved with in the analysis of a number of projects that had massive cost overruns. Following these analyses the organization was persuaded of the importance of risk systemicity. The organization therefore engaged the authors to develop a ‘Risk Filter’. This filter is a tool for identifying areas of risk exposure on future projects and creating a framework for their investigation. The ‘Risk Filter’ is now used on all projects ever since its introduction; by the end of May 2003 it had been used by nine divisions, on over 60 major projects, and completed by 450 respondents. It is also used at several stages during the life of a project to aid in the risk assessment and management of each project, and contributes to a project database.

Systemic risk elicitation : using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks

As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research.

Enhanced performance measurement using OR: a case study

The case study described in this paper aims to illustrate how qualitative and quantitative system dynamics modelling and multicriteria analysis can be used in an integrated way to enhance the process of performance measurement and management in the radiotherapy department of a major UK cancer treatment centre. The complexity of the radiotherapy process and its significance for patients present particular challenges for performance measurement and management. The paper discusses the benefits arising and the practical difficulties faced in the study.

Understanding the drivers of broadband adoption: the case of rural and remote Scotland

Broadband has been described as a transforming technology and is now widely available in many developed countries. However, broadband availability is not the same as broadband adoption. If the socio-economic benefits of broadband are to be realized, then adoption needs to be both understood and encouraged. This is particularly important in rural and remote areas. This paper explores the factors that drive broadband adoption in one particular rural and remote area; rural and remote Scotland. A causal model and a quantitative simulation model are developed indicating how the various drivers of adoption interact with one another. Both models show that past policy initiatives have impacted on the rate of adoption. However, the greatest impact could be achieved if future policy initiatives target those people who show no interest in adopting broadband. The paper concludes by suggesting that this work has implications for rural and remote areas all around the world.